tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-94275042024-03-07T14:12:02.657-06:00Ryan's BlogRandom thoughts about the weather and life. I may even vent every now and then. Since 2004!Ryanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10002778168095914184noreply@blogger.comBlogger2365125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9427504.post-1012768426341350652022-02-06T09:29:00.001-06:002022-02-06T09:29:50.300-06:00Halfway Through Winter Update<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh1uADYZk7u4gO0CJuR_YjtOf2opZJSrv-uSO8-ByR8b8Sb2o8uMLfKh_CDk8v_MuAmoJKOS3GNfiCyuOVUXGMLV9YtyR9qH6Up7N8d4znrwDwXFSORDnanvjofG5FvI7e8RiUmz7MH8mZnagSYklLFEWq4W3oXSBF-UnautqdHtj6PyNoVp5c=s1280" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1280" data-original-width="1280" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh1uADYZk7u4gO0CJuR_YjtOf2opZJSrv-uSO8-ByR8b8Sb2o8uMLfKh_CDk8v_MuAmoJKOS3GNfiCyuOVUXGMLV9YtyR9qH6Up7N8d4znrwDwXFSORDnanvjofG5FvI7e8RiUmz7MH8mZnagSYklLFEWq4W3oXSBF-UnautqdHtj6PyNoVp5c=w400-h400" width="400" /></a></div><br /> We are about halfway through winter and I wanted to look back at my <a href="http://ryansmorningblog.blogspot.com/2021/11/winter-forecast-20212022.html" target="_blank">winter outlook</a> to see how we are doing so far. Unfortunately, I'm giving myself a C right now. It's passing, but it's not great. I BLEW the December outlook, but several of the other bullet points are happening. At the start of January, my grade was a big fat F. So, here's what I had as the <a href="http://ryansmorningblog.blogspot.com/2021/11/winter-forecast-20212022.html" target="_blank">Winter Outlook for 2021-2022</a> with my grade so far:<br /><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><b>FAIL:</b> Big arctic outbreaks are possible in December. Overnight lows in the teens are likely and single-digit lows are possible</li><li><b>PASS:</b> Sleet and freezing rain is more likely than snow this winter. </li><li><b>HALF CREDIT SO FAR:</b> 1 decent snow event. 2-3 sleet and freezing rain events.</li><li><b>PARTIAL CREDIT: </b>Flooding rains are possible, especially in February. Magnitude is still questionable, but seeing 5-6" of rainfall in February is not out of the question.</li><li><b>GRADE NOT IN YET:</b> February will have above average temperatures. </li><li><b>PASS:</b> Big swings in temperatures are likely through the winter.</li><li><b>PASS:</b> 1-2 Severe weather events are possible with damaging winds. Maybe even tornadoes.</li></ul><div>Let's recap... I wrote this outlook in November. I started at the beginning of the month and finished up after Thanksgiving. Doing an 8-Day Forecast is tough enough, so I'm not sure why I do a 3 month outlook. I suppose it is fun and I enjoy the research. First off, my outlook for December was WAY off. It was the worst monthly outlook I've ever written. I predicted below average temperatures with big arctic outbreaks and we had the warmest December on record! This is why I had a big fat F at the end of the month. </div><div><br /></div><div>Since then, a lot of the outlook is verifying true. We have had more sleet and freezing rain than snow. We have had 2-3 "icy" events. I'm giving myself partial credit on the possible flooding rains. We had some heavy rains in December, but not to the magnitude I thought and I also thought that would be more likely in February. We will watch to see how the rest of the month pays out. We will also have to see if we have above average temperatures in February. It's hard to imagine right now, but we do have above average temperatures in the forecast. The last two items have happened. We have had big swings in the temperatures and we have had severe weather. One of those severe weather events (Dec 10) was one of the worst ones we've ever had in Region 8. </div><div><br /></div><div>So for now, I'm giving myself a C. It's not great. It's passing and there is no chance of me getting an A this semester, BUT if we have above average temperatures, some heavy rain, and one good snowfall this month, I'll bring it up to a B. Honestly, I could do without the heavy rain and snow... so I hope I end up with a C+ of B-. :)</div><p></p>Ryan Vaughanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08855838622162923663noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9427504.post-10466172126083567312021-11-27T21:29:00.002-06:002021-11-28T08:52:47.131-06:00Winter Forecast 2021/2022<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyNTkZSctKBRJMzW9fjhcIK3GNcf6jzAvMzWRroM0qF_8DalzZ1TB327G4teDRkUVvVo6EEQzeF-ToxMsnahamczJEEUtvWpksOTg7LJ84MwOm3_BS6ksAkXb592mwKUaO2JeJTQ/s1280/WinterForecast.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1280" data-original-width="1280" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyNTkZSctKBRJMzW9fjhcIK3GNcf6jzAvMzWRroM0qF_8DalzZ1TB327G4teDRkUVvVo6EEQzeF-ToxMsnahamczJEEUtvWpksOTg7LJ84MwOm3_BS6ksAkXb592mwKUaO2JeJTQ/w400-h400/WinterForecast.png" width="400" /></a></div>94-year-old Donald Waterworth has been taking weather observation in Pocahontas for decades. As I was researching similar winters of the past, I came across some of his weather logs. I was happy to hear that he is still recording the weather conditions for Pocahontas today! He's a huge asset to Region 8 weather and his work will go on forever! According to the National Weather Service, the Pocahontas weather station is one of the longest running weather stations in the state! I'll have to ask Mr. Waterworth one day when he took over the reports. The National Weather Service in Little Rock has the first report from Pocahontas 1871! Here it is:<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7hnY2w3YR16LEe0yQfbCqjlystf6D7UkOc4Dr68H2TmukVq564RrmMJjt4NKzQSxzDdGANqLsje0b5friqVqikkBh3ji5igzIcAtFpTda1D01UJUuintoxPnNNECze3YJIa5Xsg/s844/1871.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="844" data-original-width="726" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7hnY2w3YR16LEe0yQfbCqjlystf6D7UkOc4Dr68H2TmukVq564RrmMJjt4NKzQSxzDdGANqLsje0b5friqVqikkBh3ji5igzIcAtFpTda1D01UJUuintoxPnNNECze3YJIa5Xsg/w344-h400/1871.JPG" width="344" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRqMqnIn1w6gXKOjI6ojjtAuoofYGVHEQQnsuNpc0bTaTnAZdGtNH-039aRWtRGs3omb76q64z6IMK3iuBOU7E0Bsr94k1Dj8qilob-xnH1yLqkuninbvQHofdbVXOU9nW0BIt2Q/s965/1871_2.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="965" data-original-width="841" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRqMqnIn1w6gXKOjI6ojjtAuoofYGVHEQQnsuNpc0bTaTnAZdGtNH-039aRWtRGs3omb76q64z6IMK3iuBOU7E0Bsr94k1Dj8qilob-xnH1yLqkuninbvQHofdbVXOU9nW0BIt2Q/w349-h400/1871_2.JPG" width="349" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">The reason I was looking through the old Pocahontas weather logs was to look back at the 2000/2001 and 2008/2009 winters. As some of you know, I look back at the winters that had similar patterns to what we have now in order to forecast the upcoming season. With the exception of a couple of years, this technique has worked really well for me in the past! So, with that said, let's look back at the winter of 2000/2001 in Pocahontas. The highlighted areas are just random things I noted while researching. First, let's look at December of 2000 in Pocahontas:</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuJ8P7-NsGOiJ_g4d57oGOVToSdeS6RYezD3top9AYIPrDRPvwJugv1g9Uyt4ymDCC46NaH7zYnNKmbziMKApZdaIPYR_MVQGLGFGzTl0JU0Uy8OC5aR0GqRELTboLWb8B6HAoiw/s999/Pocahontas+Dec+2000.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="791" data-original-width="999" height="316" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuJ8P7-NsGOiJ_g4d57oGOVToSdeS6RYezD3top9AYIPrDRPvwJugv1g9Uyt4ymDCC46NaH7zYnNKmbziMKApZdaIPYR_MVQGLGFGzTl0JU0Uy8OC5aR0GqRELTboLWb8B6HAoiw/w400-h316/Pocahontas+Dec+2000.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>The first thing I noticed about December of 2020 is that there was some COLD air! We had some overnight lows in the single digits and several nights in the teens! There was also a 2" snowfall recorded by Mr. Waterworth on December 13th. To compare what was happening across all of Region 8, I also pulled the climate log from Jonesboro that month:<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgq1_G0VGx6OLRPK-oX4V7gJ9kRBEqE-s3KQXJgL8gBUzF6cUmatzx4hBK0r49t7p8Yj9LtbbgviBGR3mGfs9zqfs5SzYnDBBXbS135EDGUualBwRoHqemIeLhIx4YmIpyKpU9OtQ/s1086/2000+December+Jonesboro.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="845" data-original-width="1086" height="311" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgq1_G0VGx6OLRPK-oX4V7gJ9kRBEqE-s3KQXJgL8gBUzF6cUmatzx4hBK0r49t7p8Yj9LtbbgviBGR3mGfs9zqfs5SzYnDBBXbS135EDGUualBwRoHqemIeLhIx4YmIpyKpU9OtQ/w400-h311/2000+December+Jonesboro.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div>A couple of notes from the Jonesboro log show that while it was snowing in Pocahontas, it was ICE in Jonesboro. In fact, the weather observer made a notation that they could not drive home on the ice! Notice in both Pocahontas and Jonesboro, there was also a little 1" snow at the end of the month that stuck around for awhile because it was so cold!</div><div><br /></div><div>Now, let's take a quick look at January of 2001. In both Pocahontas and Jonesboro, the year started VERY cold and we had some some small wintry events through the month. First, here's Pocahontas:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj23ink5qMfFGhou-Me-l-F-bTBeT0AerAEvmLyGextRVApQHAKdhDSz1XRUHDg-cdP_rgZkBVEIiO-SU4wjMQ6aEC8bgmzhW497yXOlHNhNlN-MkEqJ2-IJXJYE2Hx8M3BPDQrAQ/s1004/Pocahontas+Jan+2001.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1004" height="319" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj23ink5qMfFGhou-Me-l-F-bTBeT0AerAEvmLyGextRVApQHAKdhDSz1XRUHDg-cdP_rgZkBVEIiO-SU4wjMQ6aEC8bgmzhW497yXOlHNhNlN-MkEqJ2-IJXJYE2Hx8M3BPDQrAQ/w400-h319/Pocahontas+Jan+2001.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>And now Jonesboro, January 2001: <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqH1i4Ozt0REQidJ_DnphxllsYGaPaA6nUe7AhS1Vn7QcQnI-vQutnZU89QD1WZ6uaqWKIUfgSJmlO47XmI5zsuuw1mHIN1K0dO8OMTQHHIMEfQPHtIRyrpgpIUqer4sJqChicRA/s1016/2001+January+Jonesboro.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="802" data-original-width="1016" height="316" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqH1i4Ozt0REQidJ_DnphxllsYGaPaA6nUe7AhS1Vn7QcQnI-vQutnZU89QD1WZ6uaqWKIUfgSJmlO47XmI5zsuuw1mHIN1K0dO8OMTQHHIMEfQPHtIRyrpgpIUqer4sJqChicRA/w400-h316/2001+January+Jonesboro.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>The most notable thing in February was heavy rain. Temperatures started to rebound, but we had some heavy rain. Notice, almost 4" of rain fell in 48 hours in Pocahontas:<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtQJUef0CTRfPzFj8fIvxoKtGDzs6HMzb8YJJXDSuq1yVD1V42YA7EtzR_1HoFMhoUtXUbKkjNU1Fq6qnzs4aXNqWjSxr0otXVtjxd3GIaB6iixf_AzxmPFaVbHUevHDJEDT2nPA/s1015/Pocahontas+Feb+2001.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="793" data-original-width="1015" height="313" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtQJUef0CTRfPzFj8fIvxoKtGDzs6HMzb8YJJXDSuq1yVD1V42YA7EtzR_1HoFMhoUtXUbKkjNU1Fq6qnzs4aXNqWjSxr0otXVtjxd3GIaB6iixf_AzxmPFaVbHUevHDJEDT2nPA/w400-h313/Pocahontas+Feb+2001.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div>And in Jonesboro, you can see the heavy rain fell and the observer noted that there was "flooding":</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYV0z03cqGCjW8mAvVltEGuSleSZdaZZQyhaMKnZTsCzQRkEIxmo0SeA71cv_2k-3d98Egz2Vsmm5q8bX5Yj6G0l7gYIQWld6_UwYYoU8rn6XmouvciDuRYgzk-LJwVPsg0hYy4Q/s1018/2001+FEb+Jonesboro.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="1018" height="316" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYV0z03cqGCjW8mAvVltEGuSleSZdaZZQyhaMKnZTsCzQRkEIxmo0SeA71cv_2k-3d98Egz2Vsmm5q8bX5Yj6G0l7gYIQWld6_UwYYoU8rn6XmouvciDuRYgzk-LJwVPsg0hYy4Q/w400-h316/2001+FEb+Jonesboro.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>For fun, I also pulled the climate log from Black Rock in February of 2001 to get the reports about the Black River. With the heavy rain, the Black River rose to over 18' there, which is just some minor flooding:<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuOBmPUvcuxSi5vfLf4_gOv1F2nuwfPS98cHmrw6uZ-usdI3HpJc4Yapm7e3Ox50l-EABk7EmmXlAUETfX_sLaEjCV7r8YNSMCHce0wW5EKV_tV7Xv1SRY7DxZZojev5ttSB0s6Q/s1025/Black+Rock+Feb+2001.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="796" data-original-width="1025" height="311" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuOBmPUvcuxSi5vfLf4_gOv1F2nuwfPS98cHmrw6uZ-usdI3HpJc4Yapm7e3Ox50l-EABk7EmmXlAUETfX_sLaEjCV7r8YNSMCHce0wW5EKV_tV7Xv1SRY7DxZZojev5ttSB0s6Q/w400-h311/Black+Rock+Feb+2001.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div>The 2000/2001 season was just one of the seasons I thought had similarities to our upcoming season. It also looks like 2008/2009 winter might have some similarities. Now, some of you just *gasped* because you instantly thought about the 2009 Ice Storm. Please remember that we are only talking about similarities in patterns, not absolutes! </div><div><br /></div><div>While looking back at the 2008/2009 Winter, I see really cold air and little wintry events in December, just like the 2000/2001 Winter. I see the historic ice storm at the end of January, which most of us recall. Lastly, I see a big rainfall in the middle of February. Something else to note is a big snow at the end of the month in Pocahontas, but none in Jonesboro. I think I remember that one, too. Here's the climate logs from Jonesboro's 2008/2009 winter:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjn0WvS-2Wyv1NWA1dyWONTJRF6IZ_FWqCyocbEvvg4aQa4F7fuTa4vqC63pj94Ya0GRKcaVDFzQj8ZeFw7rgPOurHhlDr2GlzxC_S8OafKPf02ycHhsMR3buo5uMa7Rf0UmlDR6A/s1097/2008+December+Jonesboro.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="844" data-original-width="1097" height="308" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjn0WvS-2Wyv1NWA1dyWONTJRF6IZ_FWqCyocbEvvg4aQa4F7fuTa4vqC63pj94Ya0GRKcaVDFzQj8ZeFw7rgPOurHhlDr2GlzxC_S8OafKPf02ycHhsMR3buo5uMa7Rf0UmlDR6A/w400-h308/2008+December+Jonesboro.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtz80lclHAhlwm4qTdGLSm9QYvV8YzcKsRfP4jr3A8q_r-C4xjxCd-aBTAc5FbW8ziu6UwvVh0DEmZ9yRI9mpAF2bP5weivRWqsMBABQdSwJe4420uy-UkU7E1ZIVJlNRdEr3LSQ/s1081/2009+January+Jonesboro.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="846" data-original-width="1081" height="313" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtz80lclHAhlwm4qTdGLSm9QYvV8YzcKsRfP4jr3A8q_r-C4xjxCd-aBTAc5FbW8ziu6UwvVh0DEmZ9yRI9mpAF2bP5weivRWqsMBABQdSwJe4420uy-UkU7E1ZIVJlNRdEr3LSQ/w400-h313/2009+January+Jonesboro.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzSmheIPOrIYRyZDG6l10xE8AHfI4_EDSslv3udcwj9yJV3HMiLoyelNWkcd-rsnT-U_gLGgU0hyhPgw4umtq-UEPCenHtMgr0Ukm1bn2OhtrLVCqop7HQENlst1yaGF_fNQ8ejQ/s1088/2009+Feb+Jonesboro.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="835" data-original-width="1088" height="308" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzSmheIPOrIYRyZDG6l10xE8AHfI4_EDSslv3udcwj9yJV3HMiLoyelNWkcd-rsnT-U_gLGgU0hyhPgw4umtq-UEPCenHtMgr0Ukm1bn2OhtrLVCqop7HQENlst1yaGF_fNQ8ejQ/w400-h308/2009+Feb+Jonesboro.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><div><div>So, what's going to happen in Winter 2021/2022? After looking at all of this data (and much more), here are my bullet points for the Winter of 2021/2022:</div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-size: medium;">Big arctic outbreaks are possible in December. Overnight lows in the teens are likely and single-digit lows are possible</span></li><li><span style="font-size: medium;">Sleet and freezing rain is more likely than snow this winter. </span></li><li><span style="font-size: medium;">1 decent snow event. 2-3 sleet and freezing rain events.</span></li><li><span style="font-size: medium;">Flooding rains are possible, especially in February. Magnitude is still questionable, but seeing 5-6" of rainfall in February is not out of the question.</span></li><li><span style="font-size: medium;">February will have above average temperatures. </span></li><li><span style="font-size: medium;">Big swings in temperatures are likely through the winter.</span></li><li><span style="font-size: medium;">1-2 Severe weather events are possible with damaging winds. Maybe even tornadoes.</span></li></ul><div>Now, we sit back and watch! Don't get too worried about the ice threat. Even if we had the same magnitude ice storm of 2009, our infrastructure is so much better these days. I honestly don't think we will see an impact like the 2009 ice storm for decades due to trimmed trees and a stronger electric grid. </div><div><br /></div><div>Enjoy!</div><div><br /><div><br /><div><br /><div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /><p><br /></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>Ryan Vaughanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08855838622162923663noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9427504.post-19734106842876443472021-03-31T19:48:00.001-05:002021-03-31T19:48:57.846-05:0020 Years Ago I Started at KAIT<p><span> </span>Officially, I started at KAIT 20 years ago today. There seems to be some confusion on *when* I started because the official documents say today, but my memory has my first day being March 27th. Regardless, I'm 100% sure my first day ON AIR at KAIT was April 3, 2001. I know this for two reasons. First, it was my birthday. Second, it was for a tornado warning in Cross County. Whew, my coverage was horrible. I stumbled all over the place and I called Wynne.... WINE. At least, I was much skinnier and had more hair.</p><p>Anywho, It was a Tuesday night. I had watched Mark Frankum do the 5:00 and 6:00 news and we were in the Storm Center going over several things regarding my new job. A tornado warning was issued at 7:47 PM for Cross County. A storm with rotation was coming out of Jackson County and moving into Cross County. Mark surprisingly handed me a mic, I put in my earpiece, and stumbled through the coverage. When I mispronounced Wynne as "wine", a voice comes in my ear and says "Wyyyyyne"... All confidence was gone for the rest of the warning! If you notice, this was when a tornado warning included the entire county instead of a polygon:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8Rzh6ZUMYVo1UC7XCKdSOYLHd-jvmDtEW31nQB2OKyw8YSczk8waRrKEQYurS4_v3eiQWk_UGiQsWYcH5qcNzm1ET62cCFw7fHUmTQEJls-zsnVoRk_kpCXbaiAG_5yh9S6IABg/s640/Wynnefirst.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="480" data-original-width="640" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8Rzh6ZUMYVo1UC7XCKdSOYLHd-jvmDtEW31nQB2OKyw8YSczk8waRrKEQYurS4_v3eiQWk_UGiQsWYcH5qcNzm1ET62cCFw7fHUmTQEJls-zsnVoRk_kpCXbaiAG_5yh9S6IABg/w400-h300/Wynnefirst.png" width="400" /></a></div><p>The storm continued moving south and the warning was expanded to include St. Francis county, too. <br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHEkozD-yL8IjVmN618ihrxzmi1Szd6Uuwwvc5V9SY977cN78mKEB1OOhndB0idJJKbHfmsmqOzv6-z5eD0N0r2YwCnJ7dIa3zeaTlRfnS98PZxElFxI_H5Uby-xPin6nh1XCLYA/s640/Wynne.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="480" data-original-width="640" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHEkozD-yL8IjVmN618ihrxzmi1Szd6Uuwwvc5V9SY977cN78mKEB1OOhndB0idJJKbHfmsmqOzv6-z5eD0N0r2YwCnJ7dIa3zeaTlRfnS98PZxElFxI_H5Uby-xPin6nh1XCLYA/w400-h300/Wynne.png" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Thankfully a tornado never touched down! Also, thankfully I learned how to say "Wynne". Coincidentally, I was in Wynne for their tornado warning last Saturday night, which I still believe was my real 20 year anniversary of working with this company. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Side note: I did transfer to another one of our stations for a little over 2 years. I loved my brief time in Alabama, but LOVE that we made Region 8 our home to raise our kids. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Have a great night!</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Ryan</div><p></p>Ryan Vaughanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08855838622162923663noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9427504.post-35972052092138738152020-11-17T14:09:00.002-06:002020-11-17T14:58:24.719-06:00WINTER OUTLOOK: 2020-2021<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZxyi2lnWjgj-HUW-gAdMmDsJeOJwjaAnOEb85TB5_cTfmFOhga9LmhJSxncTJwGtaKpArYis7I0MzRvdwiAcsaFAY6jPMOB68-r4cNkppfouctYiiTMuNjP4wFaly6Mojyq1JrA/s1280/Main+Image.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1043" data-original-width="1280" height="326" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZxyi2lnWjgj-HUW-gAdMmDsJeOJwjaAnOEb85TB5_cTfmFOhga9LmhJSxncTJwGtaKpArYis7I0MzRvdwiAcsaFAY6jPMOB68-r4cNkppfouctYiiTMuNjP4wFaly6Mojyq1JrA/w400-h326/Main+Image.png" width="400" /></a></div>I was almost scared to make a prediction in 2020 regarding the winter! We are all preparing for the worst in our minds, but let's take a deep breath and look at some data! First off, this is just an outlook. While I've had many successful winter forecasts, I've also had a couple of BUSTS. Thankfully, I still have a winning record. Regardless, I always like to remind everyone that I do these outlooks for fun and I don't expect anyone to make critical decisions based on this outlook.<br /><br />As you may have heard, we are transitioning from a weak El Nino pattern to a La Nina pattern. This pattern is determined by the sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean region. As with all of my outlooks, I like to look at global patterns and compare them to the past. While we can't look at the past and get definitive answers, we can get an idea of what we saw in Region 8 when we had similar setups.<br /><br />After looking over the data, I decided to look at TWO winter seasons to derive an outlook for Region 8 for the 2020-2021 winter season: The winter of 1955-1956 and the winter of 1995-1996. The 1955-1956 climate logs were kept by the Benedictine Sisters of the Holy Angels Convent. For those that don't know, the Holy Angels Convent is located on KAIT road and is only a mile from the TV station. The 1995-1996 climate logs were kept by my predecessor, Terry Wood at KAIT. <br /><br />First, here are the climate logs from December 1955-February 1956:<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUvbX9aqXQtHD1VMR2Xhb2D0dj26LX5puBNlZWKDL5ph9u3B1Kd8_mkDoNOoGlSjbPjk4WkN-Steqhn3DCvwsTfgudhHcfYMjkpfACa8pTnFTi0ee4VRBeFWw9cWUmt7iRjXGExw/s1029/1955+December.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="872" data-original-width="1029" height="339" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUvbX9aqXQtHD1VMR2Xhb2D0dj26LX5puBNlZWKDL5ph9u3B1Kd8_mkDoNOoGlSjbPjk4WkN-Steqhn3DCvwsTfgudhHcfYMjkpfACa8pTnFTi0ee4VRBeFWw9cWUmt7iRjXGExw/w400-h339/1955+December.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>As you can see in the above image, December of 1955 had some big swings in temperatures and some flurries. A couple of mornings started in the TEENS, while some days had highs in the 60s and 70s! Big swings like that indicate an amplified pattern. I'm a little surprised we did not have more severe weather. <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgv0FZVUzLQQA1DWwcdiyFq6mwPPtTRpauzMf_L3WGPlYpAmKXn27uxQAQupJw0_6DUM_OFoeCd2tNPyYSul9lDJe8h3qi2yeOjRztGqMubk_dIlS1hmaStHKCKi8ojN5htLoFo4Q/s1014/1956+January.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="867" data-original-width="1014" height="343" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgv0FZVUzLQQA1DWwcdiyFq6mwPPtTRpauzMf_L3WGPlYpAmKXn27uxQAQupJw0_6DUM_OFoeCd2tNPyYSul9lDJe8h3qi2yeOjRztGqMubk_dIlS1hmaStHKCKi8ojN5htLoFo4Q/w400-h343/1956+January.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>The above log shows January of 1956. Snow lovers will love this month. We had TWO decent snowfalls. The first was a 5" snowfall on the 18-19th. Not all of the snow had melted when another 1.5" fell on the 23rd-24th. Some sleet was mixed in, as noted in the comments. Once again, we see HUGE swings in temperatures. Notice how it was 17° on the 24th, but 67° a few days later on the 28th! Wow. <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6-07etRhUVNt_moQbeV48zcMbwEJ0_0-RFVLd1cejo5U_lwQUSxaQVznt5iEcXj2rp5tsobN5-q614ccpv7GN0AD4_htk0iVCXfo9jHaDWeddmRReU9QxkMFzVKxv6zUMzZMw1Q/s1010/1956+February.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="852" data-original-width="1010" height="338" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6-07etRhUVNt_moQbeV48zcMbwEJ0_0-RFVLd1cejo5U_lwQUSxaQVznt5iEcXj2rp5tsobN5-q614ccpv7GN0AD4_htk0iVCXfo9jHaDWeddmRReU9QxkMFzVKxv6zUMzZMw1Q/w400-h338/1956+February.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><br />The above image is the log from February of 1956. This was not a good month for snow lovers. While a few flakes flew on February 10th, the comments show that it melted quickly. Temperatures moderated a lot this month. No teens. Not many 20s. And many days were in the 50s, 60s, and 70s! This is something worth noting! Also, we had severe weather, including tornados. Here are the tornadoes that occurred in February of 1956:<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhs2VVrpPnD5eARcx1bf5O2q5Du97Vv-yHPVci-HzJskRt4mr03azncf-PSP3ygnpRcBHQrwvFn9zuxxleJ_HBS9QFUZI6ovo0Z9gtRUcSb3r1c6T4weTh6o0UH7eRpTIo09NeONw/s1133/1956+Feb+Tornadoes.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="670" data-original-width="1133" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhs2VVrpPnD5eARcx1bf5O2q5Du97Vv-yHPVci-HzJskRt4mr03azncf-PSP3ygnpRcBHQrwvFn9zuxxleJ_HBS9QFUZI6ovo0Z9gtRUcSb3r1c6T4weTh6o0UH7eRpTIo09NeONw/w400-h236/1956+Feb+Tornadoes.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>So, now let's take a look at the Winter of 1995-1996:<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9dtUOTlInio7R7gjxo51iyiChEskkfm3sxDaTL3ORTpFpM-2RHLzSfF8mhTWWrsHPdvy-gnJPKyWuXCEQIwcc_twigJ_yxDuB5k37uiuUmndHJKljGKTZwcmfQ4eRIR-7ld31cg/s1018/1995+December.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="795" data-original-width="1018" height="313" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9dtUOTlInio7R7gjxo51iyiChEskkfm3sxDaTL3ORTpFpM-2RHLzSfF8mhTWWrsHPdvy-gnJPKyWuXCEQIwcc_twigJ_yxDuB5k37uiuUmndHJKljGKTZwcmfQ4eRIR-7ld31cg/w400-h313/1995+December.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><br />The above image is the climate log from December of 1995 from Terry Wood. The first thing that jumps out at me is the big swings in temperatures again! We had a couple of mornings in the TEENS, including 14° on the 16th. Yet, on Christmas Eve, it was 74°! That's wild!<br /><br /><br />Let's look at January of 1996:<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjul9NDlN7a_jIewkWDGljkScPE2aVkxMjgB8h7yD5JXab6czCGZXWN4jzXU2GPxnk8CF31l4Is3uNlNFAs8-sqo3eEx1b03c8W9yIRDIprHte4nSFGEh-Gjs2p_DufBlb9lG6YUw/s1032/1996+Janaury.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="805" data-original-width="1032" height="313" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjul9NDlN7a_jIewkWDGljkScPE2aVkxMjgB8h7yD5JXab6czCGZXWN4jzXU2GPxnk8CF31l4Is3uNlNFAs8-sqo3eEx1b03c8W9yIRDIprHte4nSFGEh-Gjs2p_DufBlb9lG6YUw/w400-h313/1996+Janaury.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><br />January of 1996 was WILD. At face value, there was only 2" of snow or less. BUT, let's dig deeper. Take a look at January 18th. The high was 64° and the low was 16°! The next morning is was 8°! In the comments, Terry notes that the wind chill was -30°!, but it's worth noting that the formula to calculate the wind chill changed in 2001. Still... IT WAS COLD!<br /><br /><br />Those big swings in temperatures also led to some severe weather. There were some tornadoes in January of 1996:<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipR5cwA89zzDDwBhaSnHDEGK3ZUXpzN94w1v6f3vLZ8lZKjkIpTi6bhihO0-YGH4qdq4tt6mz3VLSTnQKeHaDlRL9MsjXyREd2rvkCEfmSjnLl-xZlHGciVMs6kTkKApbCZNQRAA/s1174/1996+Jan+Tornadoes.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="664" data-original-width="1174" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipR5cwA89zzDDwBhaSnHDEGK3ZUXpzN94w1v6f3vLZ8lZKjkIpTi6bhihO0-YGH4qdq4tt6mz3VLSTnQKeHaDlRL9MsjXyREd2rvkCEfmSjnLl-xZlHGciVMs6kTkKApbCZNQRAA/w400-h226/1996+Jan+Tornadoes.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>Let's look at February 1996:<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTDMTcc27VMyltI1-YsZoH2sPyUbsRcI8y0uyW4vSQOKgcPVhZEGWQjRP2NInIrLkGVsmQ4N3tC_ezDjCFqqlmNmqwOqFS47IwIZLaN6J4YnrLPemwH2w3s6l3I9Pjrghmsushcg/s1051/1996+February.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="812" data-original-width="1051" height="309" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTDMTcc27VMyltI1-YsZoH2sPyUbsRcI8y0uyW4vSQOKgcPVhZEGWQjRP2NInIrLkGVsmQ4N3tC_ezDjCFqqlmNmqwOqFS47IwIZLaN6J4YnrLPemwH2w3s6l3I9Pjrghmsushcg/w400-h309/1996+February.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>More BIG SWINGS in temperatures for February of 1996. On the morning of the 3rd and 4th, we broke record lows with 1° and -1°, respectively. In less than a week, we were back into the 60s and 70s! By the end of the month, we were breaking high temperature records with severe weather. ON the 23rd, we almost hit 80°... IN FEBRUARY.<br /><br /><br />The Spring of 1996 that followed this winter was a busy one! Here are the tornadoes from March of 1996, which includes the long-track F3 tornado that went through Izard, Sharp, and Lawrence counties:<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYSqDvW0jBQkgFuwivhoqPoqGoXuUuCjeOo0ZakVjUgwWgbCwe28kktDYOfCxjMITY4O-PGce6ZFZrXAiYZGglHHyVj8iyBAL-f3uXkPaASW6iJH81vBaRzOmXJqCjMWPR642-7A/s1202/1996+Mar+tornadoes.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="680" data-original-width="1202" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYSqDvW0jBQkgFuwivhoqPoqGoXuUuCjeOo0ZakVjUgwWgbCwe28kktDYOfCxjMITY4O-PGce6ZFZrXAiYZGglHHyVj8iyBAL-f3uXkPaASW6iJH81vBaRzOmXJqCjMWPR642-7A/w400-h226/1996+Mar+tornadoes.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>April of 1996 was also active. We had a few more tornadoes, including a long-track F4 tornado that went through Stone and Izard counties. This tornado killed 7 people:<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSdYsyWWstoyEMfpg2l7gZvBccqtjC-b-smyoqKXiWdzVKFVRKi3DKEoNQxdfsXCK2p8HvFjJu4JcE8HKCA0bspfw_uNNq0wE_tZYZdQloVudRfXiIK7HHXQce6dVISV4X-CTRHw/s1175/1996+Arp+Tornadoes.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="703" data-original-width="1175" height="239" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSdYsyWWstoyEMfpg2l7gZvBccqtjC-b-smyoqKXiWdzVKFVRKi3DKEoNQxdfsXCK2p8HvFjJu4JcE8HKCA0bspfw_uNNq0wE_tZYZdQloVudRfXiIK7HHXQce6dVISV4X-CTRHw/w400-h239/1996+Arp+Tornadoes.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><br />So, after looking over our current pattern and looking at what this pattern has done in the past, I've come up with 8 thoughts about the 2020-2021 Winter Season:<br /><br /><br /><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>The Winter starts early. Very cold air comes in for December</li><li>Big swings in temperatures! Some mornings in the teens or single digits. Days later, much milder.</li><li>We will challenge record lows and record highs.</li><li>We will see 2-3 severe weather events with tornadoes possible.</li><li>We will see 2-3 winter weather events.</li><li>Wintry weather will likely include some sleet and freezing rain (glaze). Nothing like 2009 though.</li><li>We will have some very windy days!</li><li>We will see winter end early with a warm February, leading to an above average severe storm season in the Spring. </li></ul>So there it is! Stay tuned!<br />RyanRyan Vaughanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08855838622162923663noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9427504.post-35939957188038652072020-04-07T11:49:00.001-05:002020-04-07T11:49:15.309-05:00Severe Hail Threat: 4/8/2020<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUcaqVLHPw0PLrxCPZ7RdFcvmOmL4zeonUlsmex66clfxV9o_tSOIo3X6Q4eRINvcITCoi1KzA4y22P9gPo3FosQ0OXcySShW76cEDGHGRL3CBkgY7DQh7lkmdzCSWNUzGI4zpjw/s1600/Hail+threat.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="960" data-original-width="960" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUcaqVLHPw0PLrxCPZ7RdFcvmOmL4zeonUlsmex66clfxV9o_tSOIo3X6Q4eRINvcITCoi1KzA4y22P9gPo3FosQ0OXcySShW76cEDGHGRL3CBkgY7DQh7lkmdzCSWNUzGI4zpjw/s400/Hail+threat.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">I know that I don't blog as much these days with the greater reach being on our app and social media, but I wanted to ease some fears about the severe weather threat for Wednesday night. Severe weather is going to cause higher anxiety in the months and possibly years to come. We are forecasting a MEDIUM risk of severe weather tomorrow and we are mainly going MEDIUM because of HAIL. We can't ever rule out tornadoes, but our main worry is HAIL. Bullet points about tomorrow:</span><br />
<div style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: inherit;">Small chance of rain during the day.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: inherit;">Main threat is after the sun goes down.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: inherit;">Some data has the storms hitting as late as midnight. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: inherit;">HAIL is the main threat. Highs winds and lightning are also a threat.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: inherit;">While the threat is not zero, the tornado threat is the lowest threat.</span></li>
</ul>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Stay weather aware and we will do out best to keep you updated. </span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Ryan</span></div>
</div>
Ryan Vaughanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08855838622162923663noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9427504.post-24402106410376626112020-02-24T07:42:00.001-06:002020-02-24T07:42:28.633-06:00Severe Weather Possible This Afternoon (2/24/2020)<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8z3aGpsU5c-Kp4eWnuatng6B7RUOMhRvBMkD8vGi-xVQgJlheiXWLsOODicYhyphenhyphenr9MqCrq1AgLhCTyNVbv0lKBjwdQWRl6KqQvgdCd3whJkh1_dtybqN6b7VTBPDUj2yGvATb_1A/s1600/ERigGJSWsAEsdQT.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="507" data-original-width="919" height="220" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8z3aGpsU5c-Kp4eWnuatng6B7RUOMhRvBMkD8vGi-xVQgJlheiXWLsOODicYhyphenhyphenr9MqCrq1AgLhCTyNVbv0lKBjwdQWRl6KqQvgdCd3whJkh1_dtybqN6b7VTBPDUj2yGvATb_1A/s400/ERigGJSWsAEsdQT.jpeg" width="400" /></a></div>
We have a brief window of opportunity to see severe weather later today. Small hail will be the main threat, but large hail, gusty winds, and even a tornado is possible. Here are my bullet points and main takeaways:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Greatest risk is mid-afternoon. </li>
<li>I'm expecting numerous "pea-sized hail" reports from these storms.</li>
<li>Gusty winds are possible.</li>
<li>1-2 small, spin-up, fast-forming tornadoes will be possible.</li>
<li>School officials need to look at the weather situation before dismissing. Don't panic or change plans right now... just make sure there are no active warnings. </li>
<li>Threat should be gone this evening.</li>
</ul>
<div>
Now let's talk about the details. As I type this, we are in the 40s. Temperatures are expected to warm into the 60s as a warm front continues to move north:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbPfzFWOrUHSbLgxppEPW9ZcXSrCxEubzadizPc9WF0N2u4NexendiI2LU54JFO6TGET6ZYtrV-d8DpOwKf0X1GUumVltFef-vrS0QxghxZ5lIsFzD4o7zFiOqHJvzlpgiOHdURQ/s1600/Screenshot+2020-02-24+at+7.10.02+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="822" data-original-width="1461" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbPfzFWOrUHSbLgxppEPW9ZcXSrCxEubzadizPc9WF0N2u4NexendiI2LU54JFO6TGET6ZYtrV-d8DpOwKf0X1GUumVltFef-vrS0QxghxZ5lIsFzD4o7zFiOqHJvzlpgiOHdURQ/s400/Screenshot+2020-02-24+at+7.10.02+AM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div>
When we get between the warm front and the cold front, we will be in what we call the "warm sector". This is the area of concern where we will get unstable. This map below shows the instability. The parameter is called CAPE or Convective Available Potential Energy. Think of it as the fuel for severe weather. This map is just a snapshot from 3PM, so the threat will be moving west to east. Notice how it increases this afternoon:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-pPvQVljoKhLFMY3hE8ZNuFcu_ERwVzc4UpIYjwzrGfBrJGlGCtyeQOeNDgj5tnAqEN0CPvLDGGfvyRhwygs3c6tmOzlHs5DE-0QmMKlwNuJfTHOVUM5nho0xRB4X7gftogt0DQ/s1600/hrrr-conus-arkansas-cape-2578000.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="808" data-original-width="984" height="327" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-pPvQVljoKhLFMY3hE8ZNuFcu_ERwVzc4UpIYjwzrGfBrJGlGCtyeQOeNDgj5tnAqEN0CPvLDGGfvyRhwygs3c6tmOzlHs5DE-0QmMKlwNuJfTHOVUM5nho0xRB4X7gftogt0DQ/s400/hrrr-conus-arkansas-cape-2578000.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
When you breakdown more of the parameters, there are some products that try to pinpoint the risks. This map is a supercell index. Notice what it shows at 3PM. It's not crazy high, but worth bringing some concern. It could be much much worse.:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgptbb2ucWebYneM2gYNBFYkruCex9KsUeXHEdooekUAjPjKQ6FHY93-SboxI2Tau5bWiGF1YRkvU0AuaFTYw922BagDfpRZYKKsJngWu1tSBri61TTa6tjLoDMosqX55ZQWDkMVQ/s1600/hrrr-conus-arkansas-supercell_comp-2578000.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="808" data-original-width="984" height="327" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgptbb2ucWebYneM2gYNBFYkruCex9KsUeXHEdooekUAjPjKQ6FHY93-SboxI2Tau5bWiGF1YRkvU0AuaFTYw922BagDfpRZYKKsJngWu1tSBri61TTa6tjLoDMosqX55ZQWDkMVQ/s400/hrrr-conus-arkansas-supercell_comp-2578000.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div>
But, what most of you will be looking at is RADAR. This is a model projection of what radar could look like this afternoon. Remember, it is a model. Don't look at particular locations to pinpoint the supercells. Look at the pattern, the timing, the spacing, etc. A model is just giving you "an idea" of what could happen. It's not a prophet:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGhlpKz_wERGo-U2IOLpx8KL-9QG8XPB8zkb-kF1yyr29mHjb6qWSqJlpeT7bJCM_n2wat1TYUULFcvKed-yGMU8hfillS6hkMkURG_9n1UhO2opZ5jhBhAYgRyIpw1KK8UzXFKQ/s1600/ERigGJOXUAAVunh.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="526" data-original-width="944" height="222" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGhlpKz_wERGo-U2IOLpx8KL-9QG8XPB8zkb-kF1yyr29mHjb6qWSqJlpeT7bJCM_n2wat1TYUULFcvKed-yGMU8hfillS6hkMkURG_9n1UhO2opZ5jhBhAYgRyIpw1KK8UzXFKQ/s400/ERigGJOXUAAVunh.jpeg" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
Stay weather aware this afternoon in case you get a warning at your location. Once again, this is a LOW risk.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Ryan</div>
Ryan Vaughanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08855838622162923663noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9427504.post-64960039770335827832019-11-26T09:54:00.003-06:002019-11-26T09:54:56.659-06:00Severe Threat This Evening (Tuesday November 26, 2019)<div style="text-align: center;">
<img height="222" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EKTc2l_XsAARnFC?format=jpg&name=large" width="400" /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
As you can see in the above image, we have a MEDIUM risk of severe weather for this evening. Here are the bullet points, as of right now:</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<ul>
<li>TIMING: 5PM-Midnight</li>
<li>High wind is the main threat.</li>
<li>Isolated tornadoes are possible. They would be quick and fast, if they develop.</li>
<li>Might see TWO rounds.</li>
<li>Concerned about people traveling and people at basketball games.</li>
<li>I am NOT saying to cancel anything. I just want people to stay informed.</li>
<li>Ways to stay in formed:</li>
<ul>
<li>Region 8 app: Have notifications ON, Correct Warnings ON, Location services ON.</li>
<li>TV: We will have constant updates on the bottom of the screen. We will be on air if any tornado warnings are issued OR damage starts being reported.</li>
<li>Weather Radio: Test to make sure it works before the storms.</li>
</ul>
</ul>
<div>
Let's look at little bit of data. This is what round 1 could look like. These storms would have decent dynamics and instability to work with. High wind aloft could be transported to the ground within storms:</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<img height="328" src="https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr-conus/arkansas/refc/1574773200/1574816400-eAUPo13pmNI.png" width="400" /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
The next round comes in between 9-12. I initially thought that this round would not have the instability or "energy" to cause problems. The latest data says otherwise. This map below shows the "energy" with the second round. </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<img height="328" src="https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr-conus/arkansas/cape/1574773200/1574830800-8raOhCLprOs.png" width="400" /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
A second line of individual cells may develop with a ton of energy and dynamics to work with, so let's not let our guard down after the first round of storms.</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<img height="328" src="https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr-conus/arkansas/refc/1574773200/1574830800-wboNU5l3dvE.png" width="400" /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Stay informed on the latest information with our app through the day. We'll have you covered.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Ryan</div>
Ryan Vaughanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08855838622162923663noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9427504.post-61884294923755089182019-11-20T21:20:00.003-06:002019-11-20T21:20:55.556-06:00How Much Rain?: November 21-22As we have been mentioning for several days, we will see rain on Thursday and Friday. Here are my bullet points on this storm:<div>
<ul>
<li>No severe weather from this storm.</li>
<li>1-2" of rainfall likely.</li>
<li>Most of the rain falls Thursday night into Friday morning.</li>
<li>Breezy both days, 20-25 mph gusts.</li>
<li>Gone by Saturday and Sunday.</li>
</ul>
<div>
So, the main question I have been getting from people is, "how much rain will we get?" Generally, the models have been showing 1-2", but some models have occasionally shown more and some have shown less. Here's a graph showing a couple of runs on 2 of the models: </div>
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5aCRAdrH1_0RPEtcfsUgChavBYN5G-se3xh-JxkJqZpV-dEilzH7I9ekP0UcXCY4w0l1W_pMUNu5ywhnxcPPCyq_Ox9mDZrXP1t-vk7E9TZ4dPQAWjzBTddPlCoVCIZPRJ7nxog/s1600/Capture.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="454" data-original-width="1083" height="167" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5aCRAdrH1_0RPEtcfsUgChavBYN5G-se3xh-JxkJqZpV-dEilzH7I9ekP0UcXCY4w0l1W_pMUNu5ywhnxcPPCyq_Ox9mDZrXP1t-vk7E9TZ4dPQAWjzBTddPlCoVCIZPRJ7nxog/s400/Capture.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
All models are showing a swath of higher rainfall amounts across parts of Region 8 and they are in pretty good agreement on it's location. Take a look at this agreement:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9ZZvc7FGaBWwsZ_pBKeghh4XzyTkRy1tCqG2_O-arBMfUDdgMeRNf2q8hEuC-2-8NC-aruI-IU7k5bSd14mwmhrdQzdlNFWWUoxEKq0qrRLFiot1uWBQfwCkBYNxnRazwGDVsgQ/s1600/Euro+Totals.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="808" data-original-width="984" height="327" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9ZZvc7FGaBWwsZ_pBKeghh4XzyTkRy1tCqG2_O-arBMfUDdgMeRNf2q8hEuC-2-8NC-aruI-IU7k5bSd14mwmhrdQzdlNFWWUoxEKq0qrRLFiot1uWBQfwCkBYNxnRazwGDVsgQ/s400/Euro+Totals.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbcqf1c_TDDrRh1OMqJFhh3mmbLzlqWmGCCMQcTYoDciNZsPiBkrTMTI9BY0yz8vWPq2N-R2KUTRImYcaA7zhNu0h9sL1ugAFo-n7LveazEEgERUkbvB6B5gR-13lcqfT6lG3vwA/s1600/GFS+Total.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="808" data-original-width="984" height="327" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbcqf1c_TDDrRh1OMqJFhh3mmbLzlqWmGCCMQcTYoDciNZsPiBkrTMTI9BY0yz8vWPq2N-R2KUTRImYcaA7zhNu0h9sL1ugAFo-n7LveazEEgERUkbvB6B5gR-13lcqfT6lG3vwA/s400/GFS+Total.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjz4qNyokY_XBZ9Kb_IiBgfpGMwrrf0bRjFJ1wmWJh8_go39gwH95Hg4n0eA5kfsx86I82fcbVj6k6mvwk2tkNWgF8qJzrBsB91PuUNiL24GKYTfkwZbYF6PFloJF8KalMEidZ0_w/s1600/NAM+Total.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="808" data-original-width="984" height="327" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjz4qNyokY_XBZ9Kb_IiBgfpGMwrrf0bRjFJ1wmWJh8_go39gwH95Hg4n0eA5kfsx86I82fcbVj6k6mvwk2tkNWgF8qJzrBsB91PuUNiL24GKYTfkwZbYF6PFloJF8KalMEidZ0_w/s400/NAM+Total.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Needless to say, we are confident in the rain. Pinpointing the EXACT location of the heaviest rain is the challenge. Keep an umbrella handy!</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Ryan</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
Ryan Vaughanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08855838622162923663noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9427504.post-36677855505419839112019-11-10T17:56:00.002-06:002019-11-10T17:56:42.204-06:00UPDATE: Monday's Rain To Snow<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7PV8l8W_TM-ECa2Ogd2jBT1L1uqnt0lJEfHsQnpBQ4db920Xr59npR-du0LJCd6M-kea5SQD6CeAbEoI0qkKaU-RGk4LsHKvQjaH1WyBHB3sb2h4ZggSheRAF_zqr3lm6CngzKg/s1600/Panicometer.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7PV8l8W_TM-ECa2Ogd2jBT1L1uqnt0lJEfHsQnpBQ4db920Xr59npR-du0LJCd6M-kea5SQD6CeAbEoI0qkKaU-RGk4LsHKvQjaH1WyBHB3sb2h4ZggSheRAF_zqr3lm6CngzKg/s400/Panicometer.png" width="400" /></a></div>
Milk and bread are still safe, but I've nudged the PANICOMETER up a little. If you are going out Monday evening, I would allow a little extra time. While most of this storm system will be RAIN, there will be a brief changeover to a wintry mix and snow on Monday evening. Keep in mind, I would suggest to allow extra time even if it just stayed rain! Here are bullet points this evening:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Most of tomorrow will be plain ole rain.</li>
<li>Rain will start by lunchtime.</li>
<li>It will end as wintry mix Monday evening.</li>
<li>Any accumulations will be LIGHT: decks, grills, patio furniture. (DUSTING)</li>
<li>Ends by 10-11 PM.</li>
<li>No watches, warnings, or advisories right now.</li>
<li>I would not be surprised to see some advisories as this unfolds.</li>
<li>Missouri counties stand the best chance of getting accumulations.</li>
<li>I'm telling my kids that they are going to school on Tuesday! They hope I'm wrong. LOL</li>
</ul>
<br />
Many locations will not see much accumulation and those that do will likely only have them on surfaces that are elevated. For example: decks, grills, patio furniture, and MAYBE grass. It would be pretty tough to get it to accumulate on roads.<br />
<br />
Here's what to expect radar and temperatures to look like around 2PM. Most of us are rain, but a chilly rain:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMnrm65Q31qbfDPfsSyAjmo585nuWYYdRxYESyXve4hHPDTHPGHcc52jSd6MT1Nv2HtpkWuvNY_ZonnQ7rFlw6uHfgCfea1T9J7xw7QjuN_WDiviCRlr4zXD8bsD1v82mulUzvbg/s1600/Monday+2PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMnrm65Q31qbfDPfsSyAjmo585nuWYYdRxYESyXve4hHPDTHPGHcc52jSd6MT1Nv2HtpkWuvNY_ZonnQ7rFlw6uHfgCfea1T9J7xw7QjuN_WDiviCRlr4zXD8bsD1v82mulUzvbg/s400/Monday+2PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
By 6PM, the colder air starts to mix some sleet and snow into the rain in spots. But, look at the temperatures. It's tough for anything to stick when you're above freezing:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqBBZuWcKTcr9h276ehH0LHkkEhhgJEFYcz43-E30q-U6bSn0ttjjDCWkxtne6W4nrgmOGnMFgABJpxfxkg_rdqTg9k52NQ-sGtN1un_JsMlvXym03vzkY5SAAeM15L6zVrwAb3g/s1600/Mon+6PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqBBZuWcKTcr9h276ehH0LHkkEhhgJEFYcz43-E30q-U6bSn0ttjjDCWkxtne6W4nrgmOGnMFgABJpxfxkg_rdqTg9k52NQ-sGtN1un_JsMlvXym03vzkY5SAAeM15L6zVrwAb3g/s400/Mon+6PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
Here's one models output on snowfall potential. This is the European model:<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<img height="328" src="https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/arkansas/total_snow_kuchera/1573387200/1573819200-Ge4rJkouLdQ.png" width="400" /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Overall, a dusting is POSSIBLE, but not all will get it. </div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Stay tuned! I'll have new data, tonight on Region 8 News. </div>
Ryan Vaughanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08855838622162923663noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9427504.post-29968745334349071772019-11-08T07:36:00.003-06:002019-11-08T07:36:47.928-06:00Snow looking LESS likely on Monday...Monday is not looking like a big deal, even if we see a few flurries or brief light snow on the tail end of the rain. I kept telling people not to get too excited. This is also why we kept the Panicometer at the lowest level. It's just not the type of setup that yields much snow. BUT, we are still expecting a a few snowflakes.<br />
<br />
It just doesn't look like the cold air will catch up to the moisture:<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<img height="328" src="https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/arkansas/instant_ptype/1573171200/1573506000-NsxEO2oZXTw.png" width="400" /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Sure, we are going to see SOME snowflakes, which is always crazy in November, but no problems are expected on the roads. It is still going to be BRUTALLY cold next! Lows will drop into the low to mid 20s again. Get ready for that.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Also, bundle up tonight for football!</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Ryan</div>
Ryan Vaughanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08855838622162923663noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9427504.post-20561875606315720112019-11-07T08:58:00.000-06:002019-11-07T08:59:50.758-06:00OK... Let's chat about Monday.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;">
<img alt="Image may contain: text" height="225" src="https://scontent-dfw5-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/70977798_2593304990692182_8962253263801942016_o.jpg?_nc_cat=102&_nc_eui2=AeHUNNJ75oRIGEBr-yqejr0MfWHIzqhSqKXI4X_M2LnMmBmVRXOyFJioSpHffCF8C-JOiuoLDDucxH1gDlehiJjHMFGhaayMDu22-PdICP9Svg&_nc_oc=AQkRWDXT7GPhC-Vs5mR0WmZuZN7DCq8pDYwrjLzDniu03WGg5VjY7GsaI2Z1Gei70H0&_nc_ht=scontent-dfw5-1.xx&oh=52b498f893e2d4ceef1668604c055639&oe=5E5CF79E" width="400" /></div>
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;">
At this time, the Panicometer is as low as it gets for Monday! Side note... the Panicometer is a teenager! I started the Panicometer in November of 2006. Today, stations across the nation use a similar graphic. I don't mind though. I think it is a fun way to communicate the impacts of a winter event. While it is low right now, there is a good chance that it gets nudged up a little in the next couple of days. In fact, we may nudge it up a little on Region 8 News tonight.</div>
<div style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;">
So, is it going to snow? Well... the easy answer is, "it might". Here are bullet points on this storm that is still 4-5 days out:</div>
<div style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;">
</div>
<ul>
<li>There will be precipitation. It may just be rain, but something will fall on Monday!</li>
<li>If the cold air plunges in, we may switch to snow.</li>
<li>The cold air IS COMING. But, will it be here before the moisture is gone?</li>
<li>LIGHT accumulations are POSSIBLE. NOT likely. So don't freak out yet.</li>
<li>Too early for an "Accumulation Forecast", but I will show you some model output below.</li>
<li>At this time, teachers and students should plan on being at school on Tuesday.</li>
<li>Keep checking back as this storm evolves. These bullet points will be adjusted.</li>
</ul>
<br />
<div style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;">
So... let's talk about the data. We have some energy in the coming in from the SW that will enhance the precipitation while a strong cold front dives south with some brutally cold air. MOST of the event will be PLAIN OLE RAIN. As you can see in the map below, PLAIN RAIN will cover Region 8 at the start of this system: </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/arkansas/instant_ptype/1573084800/1573506000-F3N9OQa01Ks.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="328" src="https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/arkansas/instant_ptype/1573084800/1573506000-F3N9OQa01Ks.png" style="text-align: center;" width="400" /></a></div>
<div style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;">
As we go farther into Monday evening, the MUCH colder air arrives and the models have us switching to snow. The GFS model has us switching to snow sooner in Region 8, but the Euro has the changeover after sunset. Regardless, both are showing a switch to snow:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/arkansas/instant_ptype/1573084800/1573538400-arG2ietTggI.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="328" src="https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/arkansas/instant_ptype/1573084800/1573538400-arG2ietTggI.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;">
So, how much? In years past would not even entertain that question, but in a day where you can search around on the internet and find someone sharing it anyways, I'll open that can of worms. Keep in mind that when it comes to snow "sticking", a lot of factors come into play. This is just model output. First, the Euro has the changeover later for Region 8, but has the cold air in Missouri early enough to tap into the tail end of the precipitation better:</div>
<div style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;">
<img height="328" src="https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/arkansas/total_snow_kuchera/1573084800/1573570800-JMZt1EHGphk.png" width="400" /></div>
<div style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;">
The GFS model has the cold air coming in faster, but the precipitation ending faster, too. This really limits the snow in Missouri, but not a huge change for us in Region 8, except that the snow would come in the daytime hours. This would be good for roads. Snow sticks to roads easier at night for several reasons. Anywho, here's the GFS:</div>
<div style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;">
<img height="328" src="https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/arkansas/total_snow_kuchera/1573106400/1573516800-i6JRkjyXbe0.png" width="400" /></div>
<div style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;">
Once again, those are just maps of model output. Being that it is still a few days out, this could change a lot! Stay tuned!</div>
<div style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;">
Ryan</div>
<br />Ryan Vaughanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08855838622162923663noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9427504.post-10898413724088182202019-11-04T14:56:00.002-06:002019-11-04T14:56:52.857-06:00Winter Outlook 2019-2020<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;">
<span id="goog_450125193"></span><span id="goog_450125194"></span><img alt="No photo description available." height="299" src="https://scontent-atl3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/75190467_2588784337810914_508078610888785920_n.jpg?_nc_cat=101&_nc_eui2=AeFp3PTXruntLPuuzyG6N2SDRWop0kwyS6z9NqjnlmfnFvy0KZ85VgsumzyEoyiaF5ELk8FE7a1q0KoCAojMr_PrGmSTEQutZjL-aDvqH1zgUA&_nc_oc=AQmnPdJKbZQe0OoyN1KbhJwDFSj0E2_Ugy1RUkLREORPCc7dOjmcXvXJNB73GXVZ6LQ&_nc_ht=scontent-atl3-1.xx&oh=ae3204479d9d8b01572a2b1514582e0a&oe=5E472485" width="400" /></div>
<br />
<br />
I'll be honest, this was a tricky outlook. In year's past, I find similar trends and patterns of the past and present to draw conclusions for the future. It's worked pretty well over the past several years. This year, I am struggling to find those correlations!<br />
<br />
I've said it in the past, but I'm not what you would call a "long-range forecaster". I do this for fun. My job is normally forecasting the next 7-10 days.<br />
<br />
So, where did I begin? Well, the Spring 2019 months were crazy wet. The summer did not yield any 100s. We had a lot of rain in August, but stayed mostly dry in September, with the exception of some late-month downpours. September was the hottest since 1925. We started October near 100, but ended with 30s and some flurries/sleet pellets across the state! It's been WACKY! I almost wanted to pass on making a Winter Outlook this year! But, what's the fun in that?<br />
<br />
I initially "wanted" this to be an easy slam dunk. I wanted to look at 1925 (which had a hot September) and see huge correlations in the pattern from that year and this Winter. Sadly, it did not match up.<br />
<br />
This year, we are really not in a "La Nina" or "El Nino" pattern. Some call it a "La Nada" or NOTHING. So, I looked at other "Nothing" years and compared it to what we have now. Don't panic when I say this, but the winter that had some similarities, was the 2008/2009 winter. Yes, that's the ice storm year, but DO NOT PANIC. That was a catastrophic event that is likely not to happen again in our lifetime. Plus, the power companies are WAY more prepared now. It's hard to find a limb over power line these days! If we had the exact same storm again, it would not be as bad because we are much more prepared.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b><u>So, here's your 2019-2020 Winter Outlook:</u></b></span><br />
<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>We average about 5" of snowfall in Jonesboro each winter season. NW parts of Region 8 average more. I think we will be <u><b>average on snowfall</b></u> this year, if our winter events are snow and not sleet or ice. Remember, snow "accumulates" more than sleet and ice. Think of it as the difference between filling jars with BBs and cotton balls. Here is a map to show you our average snowfall each Winter since 2000:</li>
</ul>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqZp6mhBBQnjMtkCkVqI4VUC9KAReJyI9pTXzVk1gnx44_SLWfZcgP9HvpdlcUdktar81fscuV63Gd09Ege7flekRXP5QB_tEojZty7uNOrLBRBdYHX6eETsx2CzWzDyChMMJVlw/s1600/Average+snow+since+2000.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="900" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqZp6mhBBQnjMtkCkVqI4VUC9KAReJyI9pTXzVk1gnx44_SLWfZcgP9HvpdlcUdktar81fscuV63Gd09Ege7flekRXP5QB_tEojZty7uNOrLBRBdYHX6eETsx2CzWzDyChMMJVlw/s640/Average+snow+since+2000.png" width="480" /></a></div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>There are some signs that the storm tracks will often move directly over Region 8. This means the frequency of storms may be higher. Even though our snowfall is expected to be near average, I expect the <b><u>overall precipitation to be above average</u></b>. There are some signs that some of these storms could be ICING events. </li>
<li>In regard to temperatures, I was really torn. However, I've come to believe that <u><b>temperatures will be near average</b></u>. Here's a breakdown:</li>
<ul>
<li>December average low: 29, high: 48.</li>
<li>January average low: 26, high: 46.</li>
<li>February average low: 30, high 51.</li>
<li>March average low: 38, high 61.</li>
</ul>
<li>Here are some random predictions I'm making for this Winter:</li>
<ul>
<li>Big swings in temperatures. Single digit lows in January, but some 70s in February.</li>
<li>1 "small" wintry event before Christmas. (maybe advisory worthy)</li>
<li>1 "good" snowfall with 3-6" across Region 8. (Winter Storm worthy)</li>
<li>1 "OK" snowfall with 1-2" across Region 8. (Advisory)</li>
<li>1 "icing" event, but not a repeat of the 2009 ice storm!</li>
<li>I predict an <b>average</b> of 4 snow days or AMI days. </li>
<li>1 severe weather event. Probably in February. </li>
</ul>
</ul>
<div>
<b>In summary, AVERAGE snowfall, ABOVE AVERAGE Overall Precipitation, AVERAGE Temperatures. Yes, ICING is possible, but don't get too hung up on what happened in 2009.</b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
So, there it is, folks! I'm not super confident in this year's outlook. BUT, as I have said in the past, this is just a fun thing to do late in the Fall. It's fun to watch it unfold and it's rewarding when it is accurate! I can only think of 1 year where I completely blew the outlook. I wasn't too upset about it though!</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Have a great day!</div>
<div>
Ryan</div>
Ryan Vaughanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08855838622162923663noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9427504.post-1535024939710385372019-09-29T22:10:00.003-05:002019-09-29T22:10:34.074-05:001925 Was Wacky!For a good part of the month, we have been talking about September of 1925 as being tied as the hottest September on record. I decided to look up the old handwritten climate log and WOW, it was HOT! Take a closer look and look at those 100s at the start of the month:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_Kj7o7hSDh3fzBiE_OeDSwhllu7bscNELPpcqKx01WQsYzxSqLkO1EIy4JIo3r1ba_OE8LPe_dzMcecofH__illlRoqRA0hKcBYT1WCvQ2_R0yCXpeEM1K-iD4f3Yi7ooCL4-DQ/s1600/Sept+1925.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1020" data-original-width="1220" height="333" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_Kj7o7hSDh3fzBiE_OeDSwhllu7bscNELPpcqKx01WQsYzxSqLkO1EIy4JIo3r1ba_OE8LPe_dzMcecofH__illlRoqRA0hKcBYT1WCvQ2_R0yCXpeEM1K-iD4f3Yi7ooCL4-DQ/s400/Sept+1925.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Here's where 1925 gets wacky though! I decided to look up October of 1925, too (just for fun). I thought I'd find the heat continuing, but NOPE.... IT SNOWED!!! Look at the 30th:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhE0z2NScgweKEhRiMCUO2AOKdoVAP689dcOfp4IOi-hDuqFNiq4PiTcoYWcxObHYD06VnZpqDPGvOtR8WjhSS0u-B3P36H_zs2ZPlKl6nJ7lGoAlhdZZjlKY5l8s2ys5rn7n-nzA/s1600/October+1925.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1033" data-original-width="1221" height="337" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhE0z2NScgweKEhRiMCUO2AOKdoVAP689dcOfp4IOi-hDuqFNiq4PiTcoYWcxObHYD06VnZpqDPGvOtR8WjhSS0u-B3P36H_zs2ZPlKl6nJ7lGoAlhdZZjlKY5l8s2ys5rn7n-nzA/s400/October+1925.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
That's right, after September of 1925 went down as the hottest... one of the earliest snowfalls of the season in Region 8 occurred. </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
So, if you are wondering if the dry and hot September means anything about the rest of fall... the answer is NO.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Take care,</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Ryan</div>
Ryan Vaughanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08855838622162923663noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9427504.post-13681275450113216822019-06-18T21:50:00.001-05:002019-06-18T21:50:04.613-05:00Severe Storms Possible (6/19/19)Severe storms are still possible tomorrow (Wednesday). There are two time periods I want to watch tomorrow. The first time period is in the middle of the day. It appears that some storms may form along the boundaries that will be leftover from morning storms. This threat is pretty low and would be very isolated. The second time period is after sunset. That's the more concerning time period. Here are my thought this evening:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Don't panic, just have a way to get warnings tomorrow.</li>
<li>High wind and large hail are the main threats.</li>
<li>Tornado threat is low, but not nonexistent. </li>
<li>Timing of the greatest threat: 7PM-10PM</li>
<li>While that is the greatest threat, strong storms are possible at any point of the day.</li>
<li>Storms end by midnight.</li>
</ul>
<div>
Let's dive into some maps. First off, a decaying complex of storms will enter the state from the west in the morning:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjy6wgI4eLUFH_2YSDClf4W20VV5kQxctr7D5KmIn60Ko-pCNf-Fp0nVNd-yGNtUclbWgXrLCepqK7qjYOEJp5haMChaOVdwS2OF3N0FfGGvER-91mWThmrZ4C3PAfCYKkTxoT2PA/s1600/7AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjy6wgI4eLUFH_2YSDClf4W20VV5kQxctr7D5KmIn60Ko-pCNf-Fp0nVNd-yGNtUclbWgXrLCepqK7qjYOEJp5haMChaOVdwS2OF3N0FfGGvER-91mWThmrZ4C3PAfCYKkTxoT2PA/s400/7AM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
We should not be too unstable at this point and most of the storms should fizzle before reaching Region 8. Keyword... "most"... not all. Here's a look at CAPE (Storm Energy) at 7AM. Not too bad:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIDOtcelQrvdSAn2DEXBbyH4xIL1yXmwwrefElzh5koks7zXEME8vhDZN6BDBp1tUlrnGUK0JAnaOthKppqAlhvzKx18hhsaU0VDM3z4WOx_aLq8bD-02oMSPO7qX6P4ruCqLEWg/s1600/CAPE+7am.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIDOtcelQrvdSAn2DEXBbyH4xIL1yXmwwrefElzh5koks7zXEME8vhDZN6BDBp1tUlrnGUK0JAnaOthKppqAlhvzKx18hhsaU0VDM3z4WOx_aLq8bD-02oMSPO7qX6P4ruCqLEWg/s400/CAPE+7am.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
Now, let's fast-forward to the lunch hour. By this time, most of the storms have died out, but there could be 1-2 storms holding together OR new storms developing. I'm not too worried about these:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4xwI6mpnKnu3tHLDhihdoNrVCcA5aoU9kf4NtJ3epOXa0QdEm3HddrzqZMRn1ZE627Qkiq2Fe-wUTmeRS6wSO_a8-AgLRQYtogynI1__GSjWfFXz8NBhwLobSwz_0yVGA2kiZNA/s1600/Noon.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4xwI6mpnKnu3tHLDhihdoNrVCcA5aoU9kf4NtJ3epOXa0QdEm3HddrzqZMRn1ZE627Qkiq2Fe-wUTmeRS6wSO_a8-AgLRQYtogynI1__GSjWfFXz8NBhwLobSwz_0yVGA2kiZNA/s400/Noon.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
Even the CAPE (Storm Energy) is not that impressive, but higher than the morning. Notice the areas that get storms first will have less CAPE after they are rain cooled:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzBKarVbm46RQE_WSt_SFCipfULZ2y7uYcrxOXewThIZdPA72VBJsBjAVhib9bNxhZ1zJtPPiRM3Hvc9IcDua8IAM4PyhtKxm0PXlj-Q4Awl5J2mW5qaBYJyvvwVyadLvWtVkVtw/s1600/CAPE+noon.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzBKarVbm46RQE_WSt_SFCipfULZ2y7uYcrxOXewThIZdPA72VBJsBjAVhib9bNxhZ1zJtPPiRM3Hvc9IcDua8IAM4PyhtKxm0PXlj-Q4Awl5J2mW5qaBYJyvvwVyadLvWtVkVtw/s400/CAPE+noon.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
The evening is when the atmosphere gets really unstable! Here's CAPE (storm energy) at 7PM. If this happens, the evening storms will have a lot of energy to work with!</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHEspThwJ0dFLAFMP1E4QpiM6Dk3cjs2mYK-24sP44Q7PxbbBHNUCbIfrZRJ-zLc36NoB0D9ZUQ6k2P5djiwV2TCG7xR3-PZrx5YkTq-N6nwaMdH9saAkncXMPFDRodeXUpmblAA/s1600/CAPE+7PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHEspThwJ0dFLAFMP1E4QpiM6Dk3cjs2mYK-24sP44Q7PxbbBHNUCbIfrZRJ-zLc36NoB0D9ZUQ6k2P5djiwV2TCG7xR3-PZrx5YkTq-N6nwaMdH9saAkncXMPFDRodeXUpmblAA/s400/CAPE+7PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
As a result, here's a projection of radar at 8PM:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4vwLWHpKjHrCGq_GTiD6beoCHfzQnW_oE9witWlE7rzBFSlK87JhKxZPjKVwaemiW1vH7txjuXjl8GylacvRnAFkGuqeyQyGS1hR2hde5obHhiabTceGo9C0zVq_eZuGjxZ9Gmw/s1600/8Pm.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4vwLWHpKjHrCGq_GTiD6beoCHfzQnW_oE9witWlE7rzBFSlK87JhKxZPjKVwaemiW1vH7txjuXjl8GylacvRnAFkGuqeyQyGS1hR2hde5obHhiabTceGo9C0zVq_eZuGjxZ9Gmw/s400/8Pm.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
Once again, these evening storms on Wednesday stand the best chance of becoming severe, with high wind and hail. Stay tuned!</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Ryan</div>
Ryan Vaughanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08855838622162923663noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9427504.post-47271065070812868252019-05-07T08:56:00.001-05:002019-05-07T08:56:44.219-05:00It IS going to rain. But, how much?Several days ago, I was talking about how we could see 4-6" of rainfall, Wednesday through Saturday. The data started to back off of that projection, but now some data is suggesting that we COULD see that much, but only in our southern counties. Before we dive into the data, here are the bullet points:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>It is going to rain and it will negatively impact the agriculture community.</li>
<li>Some people will get more than others.</li>
<li>There is a chance of severe storms.</li>
<li>The greatest threat for severe weather now appears to be Wednesday evening and night. MAybe Thursday, if the atmosphere recovers.</li>
<li>We get a little break on Friday.</li>
</ul>
<div>
So, let's dive into some data. First, I heavily forecast using the Euro model. It's typically more stable and has a good history of being accurate. Here's how much rain it gives us through Saturday:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiBT78ALbSNuEt1qFTItJ-dNsVw4mSk091kVSOF4QDNes9AwizsnkpoI-V25guyL5SneZsgH2pfRdBf1F-0Pbpczabs-hzGPOn2xDnCp6tJG8Q1dpultR_h0jD4isVC9FvUjpNrQ/s1600/ecmwf_tprecip_memphis_23.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiBT78ALbSNuEt1qFTItJ-dNsVw4mSk091kVSOF4QDNes9AwizsnkpoI-V25guyL5SneZsgH2pfRdBf1F-0Pbpczabs-hzGPOn2xDnCp6tJG8Q1dpultR_h0jD4isVC9FvUjpNrQ/s400/ecmwf_tprecip_memphis_23.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
Generally speaking, it is giving most of Region 8 a good 1-3" area-wide, with some 3-6" in our southern counties. It's hard to argue with this model, given this setup. If this verified, parts of Poinsett and Cross counties would get the worst of it.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Another model that you will hear us use, is the GFS model. The GFS model also has our southern counties getting it the worst, but it has a SHARP gradient drop off as you move into our other counties of Region 8. It also has the heaviest rain from I40 southward: </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgc5dX4fIhhY_sVlT0QV9tI5XbXPgryPCjp5VnoNGjj4apfRl-HqVT2GJy0jUKkcgN5e8loaLyethi9fExwrLhiMNiLLD9PaQ4blpqCmRF5amU-t8tUFgA9944IKojul21t6i_H6g/s1600/gfs_tprecip_memphis_21+%25281%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgc5dX4fIhhY_sVlT0QV9tI5XbXPgryPCjp5VnoNGjj4apfRl-HqVT2GJy0jUKkcgN5e8loaLyethi9fExwrLhiMNiLLD9PaQ4blpqCmRF5amU-t8tUFgA9944IKojul21t6i_H6g/s400/gfs_tprecip_memphis_21+%25281%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
And now to one of our short range models. The NAM shows a solid 1-3":</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgH-_MJYTnLbrH8bYTpaQOL1fGbmrWx88VM02mn-ZOHPpTof_5O4sCHJyawtFpaQckl4dlHTdnjnOxNNz78OBm_-0iqqpBMWsyF-gy112ZEmDSaOnoQjO2yyoALwCITqCyG5SJxhg/s1600/qpf_acc.us_ov.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="850" data-original-width="1100" height="308" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgH-_MJYTnLbrH8bYTpaQOL1fGbmrWx88VM02mn-ZOHPpTof_5O4sCHJyawtFpaQckl4dlHTdnjnOxNNz78OBm_-0iqqpBMWsyF-gy112ZEmDSaOnoQjO2yyoALwCITqCyG5SJxhg/s400/qpf_acc.us_ov.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
Here's the deal. Some people are going to get over 4" of rainfall. We are going to have to watch how this storm evolves and unfolds. Pinpointing the exact location of the worst impact is almost impossible and really isn't going to to change anyone's preparation, at this point. We are going to be watching it closely, so stay tuned. I probably won't blog much more on this storm, so follow me on Twitter at @ryanvaughan and look for video updates on the Region 8 Weather App.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Ryan</div>
Ryan Vaughanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08855838622162923663noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9427504.post-41528757341398760472019-04-06T08:23:00.001-05:002019-04-06T08:23:22.311-05:00Storms Increase TonightFirst, the daytime hours today will be warm and dry. Get outside and enjoy it! Tonight, the atmosphere becomes more unstable and storms move into Region 8. The main threat tonight will be hail. As always, we can not rule out a tornado. <div>
<br /></div>
<div>
First, here's a look at the energy needed for the storms or CAPE. At first, it's all south of Region 8:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8dt9RuOsvce27MpUf6nvcxDfzzyUXO06pq5U-5Y9PIRlOAx6O3GQEGF1aYYCZa0hhMOIQOTDPRoZC908Os1gbQFDl7CAKNbrE6D_OUtZhd6w-mDp01r5qbns0kz80TdV49fPuWg/s1600/CAPE+7PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8dt9RuOsvce27MpUf6nvcxDfzzyUXO06pq5U-5Y9PIRlOAx6O3GQEGF1aYYCZa0hhMOIQOTDPRoZC908Os1gbQFDl7CAKNbrE6D_OUtZhd6w-mDp01r5qbns0kz80TdV49fPuWg/s400/CAPE+7PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
But, through the evening hours, the atmosphere becomes more unstable:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguFulWNSJymSvKIXJ_TaDLd-1ArBO9ntksAVmZnXdyvI2vz4dLF2AbWbpGR-hsx8Q6vL3FvVRzJS4G23jVPqmvieyecSuJQloaY4w5r8QN0KESd73lmyOnqtYj2eZ_dGB0KXOEfg/s1600/CAPE+7AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguFulWNSJymSvKIXJ_TaDLd-1ArBO9ntksAVmZnXdyvI2vz4dLF2AbWbpGR-hsx8Q6vL3FvVRzJS4G23jVPqmvieyecSuJQloaY4w5r8QN0KESd73lmyOnqtYj2eZ_dGB0KXOEfg/s400/CAPE+7AM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
During this transition, we will have thunderstorms moving across Region 8. This is what radar could look like around 11:00 PM tonight. Once again, the main threat is hail, but I'm not going to rule out a tornado, so keep your app alerts ON and your location services ON.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSK_8iG8kJZioKybgTGU4EwUGc7xSGgJ2UoiotfTMgn1EHjgSG3-826witc9Fq6IHMyn481axuSkl00e18vlxPN1e1jt_BYdrQh8GzgOY1FuFyoCM9YBumOSTinjSgA1wDyz7T9w/s1600/Radar+11PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSK_8iG8kJZioKybgTGU4EwUGc7xSGgJ2UoiotfTMgn1EHjgSG3-826witc9Fq6IHMyn481axuSkl00e18vlxPN1e1jt_BYdrQh8GzgOY1FuFyoCM9YBumOSTinjSgA1wDyz7T9w/s400/Radar+11PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Tomorrow, the atmosphere stays unstable for most of the day, but it won't storm all day.. </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtEJwgLilEV_5Y10DFB9mv5hSsxWYV-W8Gvz0ENbFgfkUqvzF0xB6OhH_fR7_pGvtgkOZ-Sl6uBH3dp9AwIlz-rwJYoWdX2Ad8Rc7kDmbR0h8vstJIb7bYF7FqvT0xkTiYjxzExQ/s1600/CAPE+Sunday+7PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtEJwgLilEV_5Y10DFB9mv5hSsxWYV-W8Gvz0ENbFgfkUqvzF0xB6OhH_fR7_pGvtgkOZ-Sl6uBH3dp9AwIlz-rwJYoWdX2Ad8Rc7kDmbR0h8vstJIb7bYF7FqvT0xkTiYjxzExQ/s400/CAPE+Sunday+7PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<span style="text-align: left;"> It's one of those days when the storms won't last all day, but what DOES form, could be severe. This is what radar could look like at 11AM:</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXieUBsQf_IR3Lc6kcWVKu3NIUZ7qBsy63StJuhBEySkzIPa9ZAoz9XKxA_azByCbPX_II3daPsNyyAOfs2aXXfFPu2ItRnwv8XIwMhhrBTm_3Ti9FU19Lu5BjZb4I6NCaQaK8Vg/s1600/Radar+11AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXieUBsQf_IR3Lc6kcWVKu3NIUZ7qBsy63StJuhBEySkzIPa9ZAoz9XKxA_azByCbPX_II3daPsNyyAOfs2aXXfFPu2ItRnwv8XIwMhhrBTm_3Ti9FU19Lu5BjZb4I6NCaQaK8Vg/s400/Radar+11AM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Stay tuned for APP UPDATES through the day.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Ryan</div>
</div>
Ryan Vaughanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08855838622162923663noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9427504.post-27994068960619849432019-02-22T08:55:00.001-06:002019-02-22T08:55:41.303-06:00Severe Threat Shifting SE, But Still Needs Watching<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaktixn8FVWt_0Dd6Zy0BeS9udpywP8O3s6jhMXZB5BsJkjhVgromEPoV8KsP-qvnimGAwlVVj8Fz911jkWHoyVCipn_4jz2ZDtqqj_LbjEfmhKIA9SfasfSSRO7Ojj88SS-pQKw/s1600/Severe+Map.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaktixn8FVWt_0Dd6Zy0BeS9udpywP8O3s6jhMXZB5BsJkjhVgromEPoV8KsP-qvnimGAwlVVj8Fz911jkWHoyVCipn_4jz2ZDtqqj_LbjEfmhKIA9SfasfSSRO7Ojj88SS-pQKw/s400/Severe+Map.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
This map shows some good news for parts of Region 8, but we are not letting our guard down and not changing our plans on coverage. I am still highly concerned for areas around Wynne to as far north as Blytheville.<br />
<br />
Let's dive right into some maps. First, we will hear storms through the overnight, but they will have more BARK than BITE. This means... they will mainly just be loud. By 11AM, the atmosphere is prime for severe storms with damaging winds and possibly tornadoes. Just because the greatest threat is shifting SE, <b><u>DO NOT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN ANYWHERE IN REGION 8</u></b>:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdWkBgefPJrKcsk1ygEnNpKZSSER-QjyGtp9oIq9LckrMA-CgxEh2C688otxvvf7W8pdETIVhOLaTP6Cabxr58lrfWVwCPB5y3ivhwGx-TmKnCT8-jzBD-sxubNavnpTA3MiQvZw/s1600/CAPE+Noon+GFS.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdWkBgefPJrKcsk1ygEnNpKZSSER-QjyGtp9oIq9LckrMA-CgxEh2C688otxvvf7W8pdETIVhOLaTP6Cabxr58lrfWVwCPB5y3ivhwGx-TmKnCT8-jzBD-sxubNavnpTA3MiQvZw/s400/CAPE+Noon+GFS.png" width="400" /></a></div>
In addition to the storms, I'm worried about the wind outside of the storms. We call this "gradient winds" because they are the winds that are dependent on the gradient between high and low pressure. During the daytime hours, they will gust over 40 mph from the south...<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5i3YRXgoscV6ftR7kRz9g8X8vPhAU42S2yvpc8mrud99RyrL18PDxWcGJhDqHHxIgq9wSui8PasrAdvZDGuZy6UqD5TwxJ3wLBnWLPfo7OjSGAP4w_B0h49mHPoSf5eDqMkeIKQ/s1600/Gradient+Winds+noon.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5i3YRXgoscV6ftR7kRz9g8X8vPhAU42S2yvpc8mrud99RyrL18PDxWcGJhDqHHxIgq9wSui8PasrAdvZDGuZy6UqD5TwxJ3wLBnWLPfo7OjSGAP4w_B0h49mHPoSf5eDqMkeIKQ/s400/Gradient+Winds+noon.png" width="400" /></a></div>
As go into the overnight, the winds gust from the NW over 40 mph:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMiaaHrU1QCgR22Aj8IkNdqkBBEtNXKnGeAgG0iXpUHUFk5RB6G7r4rMPH5jwfAvvh1qAN62_MMurqZ7ljkWA227UoTE9DCblms-Nog3H97gHFkVgz9AvuGhO_40dxRBgDI1b4FA/s1600/Gradient+Winds+Midnight.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMiaaHrU1QCgR22Aj8IkNdqkBBEtNXKnGeAgG0iXpUHUFk5RB6G7r4rMPH5jwfAvvh1qAN62_MMurqZ7ljkWA227UoTE9DCblms-Nog3H97gHFkVgz9AvuGhO_40dxRBgDI1b4FA/s400/Gradient+Winds+Midnight.png" width="400" /></a></div>
With SATURATED ground, this will be like wiggling loose teeth on trees! I would not be surprised to have trees down and power outages from the winds alone. We will also be watching for that threat.<br />
<br />
Stay tuned!<br />
RyanRyan Vaughanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08855838622162923663noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9427504.post-17974829829991948052019-02-20T10:50:00.002-06:002019-02-20T10:50:43.082-06:00Severe Weather, Saturday February 23rd.We've had another active 24 hours, with many locations picking up another 2-3" of rainfall. This moved Jonesboro to the 5th wettest February on record. Now, it's time to focus on Saturday. The models are not in full agreement, but they are in enough of agreement to be concerned about severe weather Saturday afternoon. The details will be come more clear in the next few days. Make sure you have our Region 8 weather app for video updates. Here are my thoughts about Saturday, as of today:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>All modes of severe weather are possible: Wind, hail, and even tornadoes.</li>
<li>Straight-line wind damage is the main threat.</li>
<li>Timing appears to be Saturday afternoon. It's too early to get any more precise. </li>
<li>Additional 1.00-1.50" of rainfall.</li>
<li>We are still keeping it a LOW risk of severe weather for now, but may upgrade that to a Medium risk. I do not expect us to upgrade to high or extreme. </li>
</ul>
<div>
We are going to have all hands on deck on Saturday. Bryan and I will likely be in studio in case we have to break into regular programming, Zach will be out in the Central Nissan StormTRACKER. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Let's dig into some maps. This appears to be a very dynamic system. The winds within this storm will be strong and will change with height. This first map shows is the winds about 5,000' up. I get concerned when the winds are over 35-40 kts. This map shows the winds at 5,000' will be about 65 kts on Saturday afternoon. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhouK3FOAJicQUyYVtkcAtZAOsxlEJbMjVOuylfhp7rk841p-M-RQqgycCWtcnFMrCFLbUpp2Pv5uxQbKolyt5P1UmBuc4mWYMMPOBkClZiZN4J6-m9-Gh_84avuYiv0vpLXFG43g/s1600/850+wind+NAM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhouK3FOAJicQUyYVtkcAtZAOsxlEJbMjVOuylfhp7rk841p-M-RQqgycCWtcnFMrCFLbUpp2Pv5uxQbKolyt5P1UmBuc4mWYMMPOBkClZiZN4J6-m9-Gh_84avuYiv0vpLXFG43g/s400/850+wind+NAM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
In addition to the wind speed, they will be changing with height. This map shows the change in wind direction with height. Notice that the speed and direction change with height:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh31Lx4lfT9ted6oB5coO4LVHC6OejDsTjwkPuhM_W5rcVuu8376T7pEZa9ETt4RpwQ065YQRgGYnYLhnp24o4Ssvcil7Mn0VdomxejvANnbNArhINmNRYjAY88UHNAkQ-FTwfciw/s1600/500-850-surface+crossover.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="499" data-original-width="594" height="335" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh31Lx4lfT9ted6oB5coO4LVHC6OejDsTjwkPuhM_W5rcVuu8376T7pEZa9ETt4RpwQ065YQRgGYnYLhnp24o4Ssvcil7Mn0VdomxejvANnbNArhINmNRYjAY88UHNAkQ-FTwfciw/s400/500-850-surface+crossover.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
The air will be marginally unstable, but impressive for February:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHj4rwyZm1vBNaI0fxLwTvPxxi-2z_TDbgtwxFnVD_wdi4QbGIdUJT5AHYggqDauJci5V4HteqI3OD4U_ZqSlxOXZtq8R6LppYflBxLZ99cJKLN0Ic2D12Suqg9yWWZZec4AT78Q/s1600/CAPE+NAM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHj4rwyZm1vBNaI0fxLwTvPxxi-2z_TDbgtwxFnVD_wdi4QbGIdUJT5AHYggqDauJci5V4HteqI3OD4U_ZqSlxOXZtq8R6LppYflBxLZ99cJKLN0Ic2D12Suqg9yWWZZec4AT78Q/s400/CAPE+NAM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
We'll keep an eye on it.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Ryan </div>
Ryan Vaughanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08855838622162923663noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9427504.post-2865151491810291092019-01-22T08:36:00.000-06:002019-01-22T08:36:17.361-06:00Rain Tonight. What about Snow?I think we are all a little uneasy about a forecast that calls for rain to end as snow after last Saturday. On Saturday, we expected MINOR accumulations (until Friday night and Saturday morning), but the colder air plunged in quickly and we saw a few inches of snow in parts of Region 8. I didn't really pick up on that trend until Saturday morning, just a few hours before it got crazy. A little later than I wanted.... but, I'm glad that we were a little above freezing or we would still have covered roads.<br />
<br />
With that said, we once again find ourselves in situation where the rain will end as snow. As you can imagine, I'm a little hesitant to say that there "will not be much accumulation", BUT I'm going to do it anyway. Tomorrow morning does not look like a huge problem. Here are my thoughts right now:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Most of the daytime hours will be dry and windy.</li>
<li>Rain increases tonight.</li>
<li>A squall line moves through between 2:00-4:00 AM.</li>
<li>Severe weather threat is very low, but the winds could get gusty.</li>
<li>0.75-1.00" of RAINFALL expected.</li>
<li>Briefly ends as snow around mid morning.</li>
</ul>
<div>
So, let's dive into some data. All of the models show a wet night across Region 8. These maps show what radar could look like at 3AM and you can see the heavier squall line that could have some thunder overnight:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjO03PWpJrHzTLkJ9_ROgHabhHv-HpsLhfB3OyvXi0sjT3vsJgBLYv1T5w9koCoC4IZCXhNTM-CBPXaUsS363EPU9DlXlct1m1pe8Cka3RmK84kx_GcaRL3lqEPzM1zHEO3nXlUVw/s1600/WRF+squall.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="1000" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjO03PWpJrHzTLkJ9_ROgHabhHv-HpsLhfB3OyvXi0sjT3vsJgBLYv1T5w9koCoC4IZCXhNTM-CBPXaUsS363EPU9DlXlct1m1pe8Cka3RmK84kx_GcaRL3lqEPzM1zHEO3nXlUVw/s400/WRF+squall.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlURmG76KYDHiiArG6HRptGuV0adMtRSUbr6eACRUOg_8wNkYWueogozYr4eHVgiPn1nUxG2wHCfc42Jf8LFKsKABShDv9iOqb-6j2iDxxKtJ7lrwdxisESoFiOFLmTFGNP3DbHg/s1600/HRRR+Squall+3AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlURmG76KYDHiiArG6HRptGuV0adMtRSUbr6eACRUOg_8wNkYWueogozYr4eHVgiPn1nUxG2wHCfc42Jf8LFKsKABShDv9iOqb-6j2iDxxKtJ7lrwdxisESoFiOFLmTFGNP3DbHg/s400/HRRR+Squall+3AM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
We don't need any more rainfall, but it's coming. Most data is showing 0.75-1.00" of rainfall. Here are the model runs in graph form:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcF0GHV2jrdpm0d00ZttNYdgrjwq_3SV2jIWZnRqjKTUlIrT0vhLn_hkeTl4ou0_HbIs2j4dA966Tf1a5XKWWIDrOlgGiwmizLzPYNLp9pF5h9BFoY0NJz_FckSQ-o9lhmr90hNw/s1600/Precip+graph.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="439" data-original-width="1088" height="161" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcF0GHV2jrdpm0d00ZttNYdgrjwq_3SV2jIWZnRqjKTUlIrT0vhLn_hkeTl4ou0_HbIs2j4dA966Tf1a5XKWWIDrOlgGiwmizLzPYNLp9pF5h9BFoY0NJz_FckSQ-o9lhmr90hNw/s400/Precip+graph.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
This is what it looks like on a map:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj34xJxS3nG385VbuBYyEBlG3L5MBWBp6fyXdilN8RtyUeD3cFhnNaysX9X6oCzFeKNzJYOkYzj2TqQF4oIx4mIxuHc3H8JoSsVK8uVp6dpAW_TOpHvr5ScDX82swAhPbzSi7hdaw/s1600/GFS+Rainfall.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj34xJxS3nG385VbuBYyEBlG3L5MBWBp6fyXdilN8RtyUeD3cFhnNaysX9X6oCzFeKNzJYOkYzj2TqQF4oIx4mIxuHc3H8JoSsVK8uVp6dpAW_TOpHvr5ScDX82swAhPbzSi7hdaw/s400/GFS+Rainfall.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7P_a5GXXepYGudkdOP6jaeIcf76KXktfUA7E3B52Iww6a-MQvPBw-mgw7EYhY1UNmRXzFwtVrLYCBDQXgcqG5iLjfHnd5ojE_dfBUy5VuvvI61jKcC-PMfQGtBO73Pn5OIDVTtQ/s1600/HRRR+Rainfall.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7P_a5GXXepYGudkdOP6jaeIcf76KXktfUA7E3B52Iww6a-MQvPBw-mgw7EYhY1UNmRXzFwtVrLYCBDQXgcqG5iLjfHnd5ojE_dfBUy5VuvvI61jKcC-PMfQGtBO73Pn5OIDVTtQ/s400/HRRR+Rainfall.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
Lastly, some of the data still shows the rain ending as snow, but ALL DATA shows little to no accumulation:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgb8IlskpCOg2tYe_Oa4Jsd7-q1usHwzWR1zfoEbLoX0TiDcNZgJZCr1P0FrF8_bjj_FgDGXhP9-KaMrT6vyJpUHY6MDpeQWAPaE0UyK0IMmlTGmXoIdUeyVIwUqbKf1xSJV38-1w/s1600/GFS+Noon.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgb8IlskpCOg2tYe_Oa4Jsd7-q1usHwzWR1zfoEbLoX0TiDcNZgJZCr1P0FrF8_bjj_FgDGXhP9-KaMrT6vyJpUHY6MDpeQWAPaE0UyK0IMmlTGmXoIdUeyVIwUqbKf1xSJV38-1w/s400/GFS+Noon.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjETS7njravYRPxSqQWrKNjTHEITvf3Vc7iscc327pgfhnQIkV18Mli9AQGc89erqR_CQ6bcdHW0_tHZKp2z-gjnXAqw8_iAgVLZT7n6D-wnKgr_bl7fCfdRZBydcBx5ASvNieBbg/s1600/GFS+snow.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjETS7njravYRPxSqQWrKNjTHEITvf3Vc7iscc327pgfhnQIkV18Mli9AQGc89erqR_CQ6bcdHW0_tHZKp2z-gjnXAqw8_iAgVLZT7n6D-wnKgr_bl7fCfdRZBydcBx5ASvNieBbg/s400/GFS+snow.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
So, get ready for a soggy night and a wet drive to work and school on Wednesday morning. Don't panic if you see snowflakes.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Ryan</div>
Ryan Vaughanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08855838622162923663noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9427504.post-26010282821842620402018-12-31T08:58:00.002-06:002018-12-31T08:58:29.484-06:00Winter Weather This Week? I'm Not Too Worried. I've had a few people asking about the chance of snow and ice this week, so let me clear up some things. First, it's not looking like a big deal. Yes, we have had the chance of "mix" in our forecast for a few days, but it's mainly going to be a cold rain in Region 8. Here are my bullet points this morning:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li><b>This will be mainly a cold rain event. </b></li>
<li><b>No data</b> is showing enough wintry weather to warrant any watches, warnings, or advisories for Region 8. Therefore, we do not have RED on the 7 Day Forecast beyond today.</li>
<li>Yes, we will see <b>some</b> snowflakes and freezing rain in parts of Region 8. I just don't expect huge problems.</li>
<li>Timing: Wednesday and Thursday.</li>
<li>NW Arkansas may get enough for travel impacts, but I'm not even sold on that.</li>
<li>If this changes, we will tell you.</li>
</ul>
<div>
Let's look at some maps to back up my thoughts. First, the Weather Prediction Center agrees with me:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Here's the probability of at least 0.10" of freezing rain from the WPC:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9YPq_BkPCLB_H74GgzZujVAbfs9WMZdAoD746NIREjcvskDHHuxIsWfxE1VeuKwIr9-Jy0NMnGOUL0wu_8q4NMZs7FMhEkMe1lVueaHQJyyxybqh3X9TxWDlxlz84Jb1bqFpT5A/s1600/Ice+10+chance.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="542" data-original-width="795" height="272" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9YPq_BkPCLB_H74GgzZujVAbfs9WMZdAoD746NIREjcvskDHHuxIsWfxE1VeuKwIr9-Jy0NMnGOUL0wu_8q4NMZs7FMhEkMe1lVueaHQJyyxybqh3X9TxWDlxlz84Jb1bqFpT5A/s400/Ice+10+chance.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Here's the probability of 1"+ of snowfall. Yes, that shows a 10% chance or less in the Ozarks. Not too concerning at this time.:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgz-gE2BiZL-kG0RXRpM100wNAjm8BhN9ZEhFE85Byt9RLfdCe7fWOoE7vVdy6SZHMQfTt_P58yVMZZj4mZPNZV-oR_ETNKVWbWgWrcmM3p2Mifpi3DQEuCVEE3N46HPaNF1PsxnA/s1600/Snow+1+chance.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="543" data-original-width="797" height="272" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgz-gE2BiZL-kG0RXRpM100wNAjm8BhN9ZEhFE85Byt9RLfdCe7fWOoE7vVdy6SZHMQfTt_P58yVMZZj4mZPNZV-oR_ETNKVWbWgWrcmM3p2Mifpi3DQEuCVEE3N46HPaNF1PsxnA/s400/Snow+1+chance.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Here's the probability of wintry weather for Thursday:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9QlHT2wFzAQ4tKtBuuXBL5CyskI7AX3t3PjW84tF0eKceFXyZ1fKMwxwapb4JDjicNHI1YGgAARqTfzBZyn6BCn5C63cmB6sNKv5wsRlUIS1pZoVNqPGhjfgfIJjiUQPSTbBKPQ/s1600/WPC+Probs.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="545" data-original-width="794" height="273" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9QlHT2wFzAQ4tKtBuuXBL5CyskI7AX3t3PjW84tF0eKceFXyZ1fKMwxwapb4JDjicNHI1YGgAARqTfzBZyn6BCn5C63cmB6sNKv5wsRlUIS1pZoVNqPGhjfgfIJjiUQPSTbBKPQ/s400/WPC+Probs.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Now, let's look at the GFS and Euro weather models. Here's the output for snowfall:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaJnX4biZbLCl7yiKphDPU3EPiklNlCr1ypGGgh8pakySlQoqDoSfpN1sEQjBpvB00Y8C6KyIzKVDLNNicV1LCUK9ciox6HYMCGjo1ZRbwhCnTfj7UjPbdHGjVsXTdkQHAc_Uopg/s1600/gfs_snow_Ku_acc_arkansas_20.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaJnX4biZbLCl7yiKphDPU3EPiklNlCr1ypGGgh8pakySlQoqDoSfpN1sEQjBpvB00Y8C6KyIzKVDLNNicV1LCUK9ciox6HYMCGjo1ZRbwhCnTfj7UjPbdHGjVsXTdkQHAc_Uopg/s400/gfs_snow_Ku_acc_arkansas_20.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1JKucvq7cX3BIdpoVVWVDarzlz3wrBix5p7F2zCzX5oxZ60bUZxhlSHmMFbTra-lR74Xe1WPbprYtmWcv0Y9YlyqLMuDVTGuBoDm6zQPBSK0nChpmGolmRC1lBSza4SXhgz8yKg/s1600/ecmwf_tsnow_KU_arkansas_21.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1JKucvq7cX3BIdpoVVWVDarzlz3wrBix5p7F2zCzX5oxZ60bUZxhlSHmMFbTra-lR74Xe1WPbprYtmWcv0Y9YlyqLMuDVTGuBoDm6zQPBSK0nChpmGolmRC1lBSza4SXhgz8yKg/s400/ecmwf_tsnow_KU_arkansas_21.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
And here's the output of freezing rain:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyl8VoMYQ8Ol6hSS6FfPwGa21FMztdXLjs-iZ6WBTvWISZg_aQIcVSD6E64kOm5jqrAmKfPEPvdo7YToXd93Fv6IyiPfARfBKcTJ4_r0luu4t5QLvvptEO5Td_4o0wMbVgcRzVAg/s1600/gfs_frz_rain_arkansas_20.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyl8VoMYQ8Ol6hSS6FfPwGa21FMztdXLjs-iZ6WBTvWISZg_aQIcVSD6E64kOm5jqrAmKfPEPvdo7YToXd93Fv6IyiPfARfBKcTJ4_r0luu4t5QLvvptEO5Td_4o0wMbVgcRzVAg/s400/gfs_frz_rain_arkansas_20.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKt6OX5IX08Sb8Amq3G-njOKcs73LIZfrSkoSa_S3amZBq2_TVZIrinl8D_AMMl6LP2RNrof2TzWEbqR4lRdZjyUyMBOMxFHSEUGnqCqQr487wMJYBWOCU5qJmvpS1KH5UbMb-gw/s1600/ecmwf_frz_rain_arkansas_21.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKt6OX5IX08Sb8Amq3G-njOKcs73LIZfrSkoSa_S3amZBq2_TVZIrinl8D_AMMl6LP2RNrof2TzWEbqR4lRdZjyUyMBOMxFHSEUGnqCqQr487wMJYBWOCU5qJmvpS1KH5UbMb-gw/s400/ecmwf_frz_rain_arkansas_21.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
Here's the deal. I know there is a lot of social media chatter. We are watching it. We are not too worried. If we DO get worried, we will tell you. Otherwise, enjoy New Year's Eve!</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Ryan</div>
Ryan Vaughanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08855838622162923663noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9427504.post-15124139373747705212018-12-07T08:36:00.001-06:002018-12-07T08:36:34.724-06:00Tricky Forecast!This might be one of the trickiest forecasts. Many models are backing off on the winter storm, while a couple of models are still ALL IN on wintry weather impacts for tomorrow. Here are my thoughts as of this morning:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>This storm is going to surprise us... I'm just not sure how... yet.</li>
<li>Overall, snow forecasts are being adjusted downward.</li>
<li>Overall, freezing rain forecast is not being adjusted yet. Swath of 0.25" still expected.</li>
<li>Reminder, freezing rain typically is not "too" bad for roads. Sleet and snow is worse.</li>
<li>Greatest threat for travel problems is in Independence, Sharp, Jackson, and Cleburne counties in Region 8. This does not mean we will not see slick spots in other locations.</li>
<li>MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE.</li>
</ul>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
To give you an idea of the wide range of data this morning. Here's the the snow output from two models:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiLzzTv_gK_OXIndXv79ugcp-WoKi7dDxQN4FTBQmW1mJsl9fBusPbZrgtxiJtI5OpzWwUQr2T6SmajatwsvAvdxdbDJTNojWRI_y6OTFFijT7ADTyr9xTfRABY9GHEhW1ZK0FEw/s1600/Snow+GFS.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="417" data-original-width="409" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiLzzTv_gK_OXIndXv79ugcp-WoKi7dDxQN4FTBQmW1mJsl9fBusPbZrgtxiJtI5OpzWwUQr2T6SmajatwsvAvdxdbDJTNojWRI_y6OTFFijT7ADTyr9xTfRABY9GHEhW1ZK0FEw/s400/Snow+GFS.PNG" width="391" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8uVppbq490TB96EIW2z_HDkSvHth76Q9vGC6AnmzBMsRt9ATtPTn7O0P7IZyCoC-6Cg94GYWFQqikiSusPWN7aL8_jQ5SgBv7Qwa5oITTBQTOLXbLQvk32Mx6n2WHVI-Ow5MZjw/s1600/SNow+WRF.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="435" data-original-width="461" height="376" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8uVppbq490TB96EIW2z_HDkSvHth76Q9vGC6AnmzBMsRt9ATtPTn7O0P7IZyCoC-6Cg94GYWFQqikiSusPWN7aL8_jQ5SgBv7Qwa5oITTBQTOLXbLQvk32Mx6n2WHVI-Ow5MZjw/s400/SNow+WRF.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<div>
Here's the range of freezing rain output:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOVq9UYx7y4GY_uPB08bijaYJY69YjSoNJL2mQiBHv2rgRGljMHf5R8pSoGcjQDme1owYIEC-bQSOMOfZeqNf-xpMONVArGLYHhyXDeASofD3QxmQ5BMoh_DRR3Q2rRxYrmLCazA/s1600/Ice+WRF.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="423" data-original-width="409" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOVq9UYx7y4GY_uPB08bijaYJY69YjSoNJL2mQiBHv2rgRGljMHf5R8pSoGcjQDme1owYIEC-bQSOMOfZeqNf-xpMONVArGLYHhyXDeASofD3QxmQ5BMoh_DRR3Q2rRxYrmLCazA/s400/Ice+WRF.PNG" width="386" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFht9W_IO_pyJafbvgG8iAcdErwgUS7ozkLQIENxkNkxQWHD6igPN2KfG7QxJdDgkN1ajyUchzsxuYLtg2w0AEuRifjdBzeR2ZxTvR4MlwFqIgSj7QCG4WwSwCHgnEXHehNjxb3g/s1600/ICe+GFS.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="421" data-original-width="422" height="398" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFht9W_IO_pyJafbvgG8iAcdErwgUS7ozkLQIENxkNkxQWHD6igPN2KfG7QxJdDgkN1ajyUchzsxuYLtg2w0AEuRifjdBzeR2ZxTvR4MlwFqIgSj7QCG4WwSwCHgnEXHehNjxb3g/s400/ICe+GFS.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
I'm hoping the data comes more in line this afternoon. Stay tuned.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Ryan</div>
Ryan Vaughanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08855838622162923663noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9427504.post-6083058583502524752018-12-06T15:44:00.000-06:002018-12-06T15:44:21.858-06:00Could We Get More ICE Than SNOW? Thursday Update.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcIOzvSry7gDsqi7lcchFY6B2t4rHlylfuGxqUiAwkHE2qT6hpKnoqOdxTOzUsAh200ogEFERqecp5gyGL1xqCCaDuFwWdaDw3F_uzHq5ro90cR8eUjz0uUlB4LvsNMe2UEyuaDA/s1600/SNOW_Manual.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcIOzvSry7gDsqi7lcchFY6B2t4rHlylfuGxqUiAwkHE2qT6hpKnoqOdxTOzUsAh200ogEFERqecp5gyGL1xqCCaDuFwWdaDw3F_uzHq5ro90cR8eUjz0uUlB4LvsNMe2UEyuaDA/s400/SNOW_Manual.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
The above map is my current thinking on accumulations, as of this afternoon (Thursday). This could easily change by tomorrow, so stay tuned.<br />
<br />
I'm starting to believe that we may see less snow and more freezing rain (and cold rain). Here are my thoughts right now:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Rain starts Friday night into Saturday morning. </li>
<li>Northern and western counties will quickly switch to sleet and freezing rain.</li>
<li>By Saturday night, everything west of Highway 49 should switch to snow.</li>
<li>If we don't switch to snow and stay as sleet and freezing rain, power issues increase and accumulations decrease. </li>
<li>Counties closer to I40 will see mainly plain rain.</li>
<li>If I changed anything in the forecast tonight, it would be to increase the freezing rain numbers and lower the snow numbers. </li>
</ul>
<div>
So, let's dig into some maps. First, the GFS has been rather consistent. Here's what it shows for freezing rain:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgM2Lz2fRTC0dQnjVthlvPfJAHs4EcH_pfnw2tdiyBxi6hZQL0iGQlslw6vxMQ831tY0wEfaLJHVaxgUPQVfr-0po0cq6bUZmKMe6gzqWjp-cpR-egjsXpyPkyy8mUYMs0KbKkI0Q/s1600/Freezing+Rain+GFS.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="493" data-original-width="501" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgM2Lz2fRTC0dQnjVthlvPfJAHs4EcH_pfnw2tdiyBxi6hZQL0iGQlslw6vxMQ831tY0wEfaLJHVaxgUPQVfr-0po0cq6bUZmKMe6gzqWjp-cpR-egjsXpyPkyy8mUYMs0KbKkI0Q/s400/Freezing+Rain+GFS.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
And then here is what is shows for snow on top of that:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZFQC6jZx3dWyACxyxTF5PvQkp7vhdWGKwHXw-WqVXW2fzKmkgwLF1ul-USDxcVIbJPye-y-t0xGY3NfgqmtfCskgjbuncz6cUQ3rZ2AQ9k3MoPKcTp_7fLZ6MT4_U6b7rGJ3QaA/s1600/Snow+GFS.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="416" data-original-width="560" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZFQC6jZx3dWyACxyxTF5PvQkp7vhdWGKwHXw-WqVXW2fzKmkgwLF1ul-USDxcVIbJPye-y-t0xGY3NfgqmtfCskgjbuncz6cUQ3rZ2AQ9k3MoPKcTp_7fLZ6MT4_U6b7rGJ3QaA/s400/Snow+GFS.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
Next is the NAM model, which was going a little bonkers, but now starting to get it's act together. First, what it shows for freezing rain:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYNag24yubeyT_TDOKahwVi33cQMrV38NZyNHBUl7hlm3-akH-NGX74YDnyRmz6iDJUBL1vH3TMCKxuldumO_n40jL_LdrqpwPxxvEANWcq4NlArxVfAgBdQfhBWv2XN-0gQFnmg/s1600/Freezing+Rain+NAM.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="516" data-original-width="514" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYNag24yubeyT_TDOKahwVi33cQMrV38NZyNHBUl7hlm3-akH-NGX74YDnyRmz6iDJUBL1vH3TMCKxuldumO_n40jL_LdrqpwPxxvEANWcq4NlArxVfAgBdQfhBWv2XN-0gQFnmg/s400/Freezing+Rain+NAM.PNG" width="397" /></a></div>
<div>
And now what it shows for snow:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpBcSkWosKfrF6xbjoHhN1vj2fXZ-Dyxs5Hp-e4H6dF0wemZEtycvFMaWgXpVnSANZVVYD7zd0Z3nvcAVV90gjuenwyJITg1GtJUCNbr9NQabgzZaerXYD-1QRTR0AnXgaG0Dk8g/s1600/Snow+NAM.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="461" data-original-width="520" height="353" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpBcSkWosKfrF6xbjoHhN1vj2fXZ-Dyxs5Hp-e4H6dF0wemZEtycvFMaWgXpVnSANZVVYD7zd0Z3nvcAVV90gjuenwyJITg1GtJUCNbr9NQabgzZaerXYD-1QRTR0AnXgaG0Dk8g/s400/Snow+NAM.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
As I said, it is still a little high on amounts! </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Stay tuned. VIDEO update can be found on my Facebook page and on our Region 8 Weather App.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Ryan</div>
Ryan Vaughanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08855838622162923663noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9427504.post-76470451382061662232018-12-05T11:52:00.000-06:002018-12-05T11:52:41.610-06:00Saturday Snow, Sleet, Ice, or Rain! Wednesday Update.I'm going to try to do an update on the potential for wintry weather each morning until Saturday, here on the blog. I'll also be updating the Region 8 weather app each day with the latest information and on Twitter. Here are my thoughts as of this morning:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Friday looks fine. Outside of a few pockets of showers or sleet, Friday is not concerning.</li>
<li>Saturday is the main day.</li>
<li>All modes of precipitation are possible: Rain, sleet, snow, and freezing rain.</li>
<li>Travel impacts are becoming likely for areas NW of Highway 67. Possible for areas SE of Highway 67. </li>
<li>It's still too early to nail down accumulations with accuracy.</li>
</ul>
<div>
When we are 4 days out, it's typically the time to start focusing in on making alternative plans. I do think this storm will impact a large part of Region 8. I do think we will have some travel issues. A lot of the precipitation will be falling during the daytime hours on Saturday, so that may help the roads stay a little more clear. Time will tell.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Let's dive into some maps. First, let me show you the GFS model. This 4-panel shows how much of each precipitation type may fall. My biggest worry right now is that we get more freezing rain (ice glaze) than snow. Now, before anyone says it... NO, not 2009 bad. But, freezing rain is never good. It typically does not mess up the roads too bad, but can be bad for trees and power outages:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuN0nYhkaYX2zcHKAK5ElDcV5SMGrQd92T8Q3bKHJl1k1XgLGZSP3fUysdowgwIH_CbXpIMUQjzKawsoYlwuGDRhG_y7fzl8qPyHQMK7a5EMhXwL3wSTkRphAzd7kEywToPtyBsQ/s1600/GFS+P+Type+total.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuN0nYhkaYX2zcHKAK5ElDcV5SMGrQd92T8Q3bKHJl1k1XgLGZSP3fUysdowgwIH_CbXpIMUQjzKawsoYlwuGDRhG_y7fzl8qPyHQMK7a5EMhXwL3wSTkRphAzd7kEywToPtyBsQ/s400/GFS+P+Type+total.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
Since we are 4 days out, the Weather Prediction Center does not breakdown precipitation type in their probabilities yet, but they are indicating a good chance of wintry weather across Region 8 on Saturday. This map shows the probability of 0.25" liquid equivalent of winter precip on Saturday. This is... if you melted down whatever fell to liquid. For example... 0.25" is roughly 2-3" of snow:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgC7ZlVPvaIO_FmIsJSbtbF7wS_HS7CY_-JkNfMuiYJIycCdBXI5QM3r_V_1f7npgz6sYzWhdq0DPAbZ2FFHkkR3J5X4qMPwTwVMyJJH3RiTrT-ZPAz_DBJbrJfH7lsfX7ZbXcFnA/s1600/WPC+Probs.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="545" data-original-width="798" height="272" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgC7ZlVPvaIO_FmIsJSbtbF7wS_HS7CY_-JkNfMuiYJIycCdBXI5QM3r_V_1f7npgz6sYzWhdq0DPAbZ2FFHkkR3J5X4qMPwTwVMyJJH3RiTrT-ZPAz_DBJbrJfH7lsfX7ZbXcFnA/s400/WPC+Probs.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
If you breakdown what the GFS is saying for just snow, here is the model output. This matches up well with what we have been showing on air, too:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhW7c04NY2zlFoKFKsg1Ok_NJiE_hXQZeaaU35gsuzI27chIjoNIukRLgBy_yXhqEvD_fJ8Zy4ul6TnJPxuSV7QVTb2iNVUumipp4yoPEDjVhcVLKOWGDfsf8uIwAuVUfEtzu0a0A/s1600/GFS+snow+total+12Z.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhW7c04NY2zlFoKFKsg1Ok_NJiE_hXQZeaaU35gsuzI27chIjoNIukRLgBy_yXhqEvD_fJ8Zy4ul6TnJPxuSV7QVTb2iNVUumipp4yoPEDjVhcVLKOWGDfsf8uIwAuVUfEtzu0a0A/s400/GFS+snow+total+12Z.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
Now, let's talk about the oddball of the data. This morning, the NAM models comes in and goes bonkers for snow and ice for a large parts of the state. By 6PM on Saturday, look what it shows... with much more to come (look west):</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgn8o3zsVFa6xiD8Imv_tLAI1-XeQngaypzdLt1GuCaYv7qMSg4C7zbjqBUgK36hTdTtESda4t1h7WVB0tzKotRCgx-tITS9_JHT0zqGAeZGM-ktEfPG9TY0a7b72MKo0QBm3vVSQ/s1600/NAM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgn8o3zsVFa6xiD8Imv_tLAI1-XeQngaypzdLt1GuCaYv7qMSg4C7zbjqBUgK36hTdTtESda4t1h7WVB0tzKotRCgx-tITS9_JHT0zqGAeZGM-ktEfPG9TY0a7b72MKo0QBm3vVSQ/s400/NAM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
In summary, something is going to happen on Saturday. We will have a much better grasp on the details tomorrow morning. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Stay tuned!</div>
<div>
Ryan</div>
Ryan Vaughanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08855838622162923663noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9427504.post-74926594918897040522018-11-17T10:38:00.004-06:002018-11-17T21:16:30.227-06:00It Snowed Before Thanksgiving in 1976 and LOOK at the Winter Afterwards!!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglXPWhyCuxjDZr3mC8_cBatKhR_WhDjGx4bdtGefGcmW9FE037b9X8LUy7SgBB2GeVr7RxppvVBh8gMCYnBGDYKcZ99lcnR_c898byRdJSvPth1bPYJGI3mdWZDCOjC0LDbJ3ntQ/s1600/1976+November.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="668" data-original-width="743" height="358" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglXPWhyCuxjDZr3mC8_cBatKhR_WhDjGx4bdtGefGcmW9FE037b9X8LUy7SgBB2GeVr7RxppvVBh8gMCYnBGDYKcZ99lcnR_c898byRdJSvPth1bPYJGI3mdWZDCOjC0LDbJ3ntQ/s400/1976+November.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
<b><span style="color: red;">**CORRECTION** to blog below: </span></b>There <u><b>WAS</b></u> a big snow in January of 1977 that is not logged in the Jonesboro data. Arkansas native, Kevin Myatt, of The Roanoke Times, read the blog and recalled a big snow. Sure enough, I checked the Paragould log and found this:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7f77kkIOGdS_sdoHmyhCqJKCRGoPO9HTFw63A2zIqzI4r8ioVH2xX3tIkGiEmXwjVZ-r4X51m9bCndkz8h4zBNCNkleF-LkwzhbcfeLO7iAk9Rqe-Ws4-fGERFHErtTAhJ11kCQ/s1600/Paeragould+1977+Jan.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="583" data-original-width="721" height="322" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7f77kkIOGdS_sdoHmyhCqJKCRGoPO9HTFw63A2zIqzI4r8ioVH2xX3tIkGiEmXwjVZ-r4X51m9bCndkz8h4zBNCNkleF-LkwzhbcfeLO7iAk9Rqe-Ws4-fGERFHErtTAhJ11kCQ/s400/Paeragould+1977+Jan.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
Original blog:<br />
<strike>Nothing. That's right, it snowed 2" on November 14th, 1976 and we had no measurable snow or ice in the winter that followed.</strike> A lot of people have asked me over the past couple of days if last week's snow means that we will have a lot of snow this winter. My answer... NO. (still is "no")<br />
<br />
However, like my winter outlook stated... I still think we will have some big swings in temperatures. I also think we will have some weeks that are VERY cold. I just don't think the snowfall will be above average.<br />
<br />
Here's what the winter of 1976-1977 looked like:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhisLoQGvVEzWL4UUBLrdNJ4QaontLkp8_UB4n43xx2cP0T9il0pgoMlrRFW8TlLQ2WRz9HWFsCYxi-R3F1NiitB3ewjxJuS5lr7ozxSG_4D8bS4FAwu2VMB7lKRqU_6BDYwMH9TQ/s1600/1976+December.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="665" data-original-width="747" height="355" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhisLoQGvVEzWL4UUBLrdNJ4QaontLkp8_UB4n43xx2cP0T9il0pgoMlrRFW8TlLQ2WRz9HWFsCYxi-R3F1NiitB3ewjxJuS5lr7ozxSG_4D8bS4FAwu2VMB7lKRqU_6BDYwMH9TQ/s400/1976+December.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9jPu7T7nb37V4LlhCPHJXvoFpgqohV1TmUVpJR6X7_prGea9ajFZUIb4p3yj3HYcWjrIpwOrTXU-RzQ-oZ3ZfyMpIc0bVHJJVIV3B6rUwnVr03G9l7sApQ5EsvKPNUHNdjLO3eA/s1600/1977+January.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="667" data-original-width="747" height="356" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9jPu7T7nb37V4LlhCPHJXvoFpgqohV1TmUVpJR6X7_prGea9ajFZUIb4p3yj3HYcWjrIpwOrTXU-RzQ-oZ3ZfyMpIc0bVHJJVIV3B6rUwnVr03G9l7sApQ5EsvKPNUHNdjLO3eA/s400/1977+January.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsAqPb0tvKvjIUkZKMsSD6rDfvQHjR4AIDp5QaLqOJEg4QNS8m99JqpFhLr4VIpztBFGaObM5xi3Mkm1Z_8tlPphyphenhyphentmYV7V2x2-TocqQ-m2H8-gqBUvC20HTLU0oerMIyh3j5tqA/s1600/1977+February.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="665" data-original-width="743" height="357" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsAqPb0tvKvjIUkZKMsSD6rDfvQHjR4AIDp5QaLqOJEg4QNS8m99JqpFhLr4VIpztBFGaObM5xi3Mkm1Z_8tlPphyphenhyphentmYV7V2x2-TocqQ-m2H8-gqBUvC20HTLU0oerMIyh3j5tqA/s400/1977+February.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Have a great Saturday!</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Ryan</div>
<br />
<br />Ryan Vaughanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08855838622162923663noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9427504.post-57906765156144339282018-11-13T09:34:00.002-06:002018-11-13T09:34:38.925-06:00Upper-Level Low, Maybe Some Snow, Weatherman's Woes.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYKyvMFM9WAL2WqRFr1frbKlGHJybi_H9sdeAyj7EjX7n8h4qj6MvAMNkSQ55P_zs0lMC0Wtku66HVZp4gUmH66Z68XL-pfwA1ZLTMkpjc3JY-3H03fp8vlbhYnsPOb0qkoLk07A/s1600/NAM+500+vort.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYKyvMFM9WAL2WqRFr1frbKlGHJybi_H9sdeAyj7EjX7n8h4qj6MvAMNkSQ55P_zs0lMC0Wtku66HVZp4gUmH66Z68XL-pfwA1ZLTMkpjc3JY-3H03fp8vlbhYnsPOb0qkoLk07A/s400/NAM+500+vort.png" width="400" /></a></div>
The above map shows the upper-level low that will be parked over us on Thursday morning. This low may bring snow to Region 8 as early as Wednesday evening. I've seen this type of setup bring 6" of snow to one county, while leaving another county with nothing. These are fun! Here are my bullet points, as of Tuesday morning:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>I'm confident it is going to snow over parts of Region 8 Wednesday night into Thursday morning.</li>
<li>I'm also confident that it will melt quickly on Thursday, with temperatures going above 32°.</li>
<li>Extreme NE Arkansas and SE Missouri have the best chance of decent accumulation.</li>
<li>Big snowflakes</li>
<li>Wet snow</li>
<li>"Sticky" snow. This means that it should stick to the trees. I'm a little worried about trees that still have a lot of their leaves, like Bradford Pear trees. </li>
<li>We will have the Central Nissan StormTRACKER out on Wednesday night and Thursday morning. </li>
<li>We will be in the 50s on Friday.</li>
</ul>
<div>
So, let's dive into the maps! I am starting to get a little more concerned about Wednesday evening. I know many of you have church plans and we may have the snow in some areas prior to the end of services. Here's what radar could look like at 6PM. The snow would be rotating in from the southeast:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDId7KnkOQsac5InQH11bF9dmjRCYhgCqsuFGZ-S546g-E-jxNQFCR320e6itxq6splZsq4Rz6lsZN3RKep1w0ux4OjPtChi4Z8f1JVZmCmlM3uK5vVw8C9JafmBijiQ5XXFJRsw/s1600/NAM+6PM+Radar.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="497" data-original-width="556" height="357" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDId7KnkOQsac5InQH11bF9dmjRCYhgCqsuFGZ-S546g-E-jxNQFCR320e6itxq6splZsq4Rz6lsZN3RKep1w0ux4OjPtChi4Z8f1JVZmCmlM3uK5vVw8C9JafmBijiQ5XXFJRsw/s400/NAM+6PM+Radar.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div>
As the sun goes down, this will start to accumulate in some spots. The storm team has gone over the latest data this morning and this is what we are thinking for snow totals by Thursday morning. Keep in mind that this forecast can change and we will be updating it through the storm:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiD4HmVw-dpB8M5ELH6Ei5msNWgUytckyxyS0ovcI2qgLbpGS9yYHkS30b3bPUMrfv7Bwsy1j8Sco7vCvJWlWkFP-G4KW_sK640u7XROCFwq-humckRSMpklevMx_5BlfznvMyvsg/s1600/SNOW_Manual.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiD4HmVw-dpB8M5ELH6Ei5msNWgUytckyxyS0ovcI2qgLbpGS9yYHkS30b3bPUMrfv7Bwsy1j8Sco7vCvJWlWkFP-G4KW_sK640u7XROCFwq-humckRSMpklevMx_5BlfznvMyvsg/s400/SNOW_Manual.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
Let's talk probabilities. These maps from NOAA Weather Prediction Center breakdown accumulation by probability.</div>
<div>
<br />So, this map shows you the probability of seeing a 1" snowfall in Region 8. (About a 50% chance of a 1" snowfall for Jonesboro):</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJYGFF3twolseFHrx-Fz-ief4OOX4vGwDDWbtlxgu-KOnCAh0fhtTnNJ6IeVcsetPdyi6p1apIqB24hcS5qzv8hLnj1SASIIK8bRFSSt3CpUGKagC6fkbdfyaQh5LAnV-GHVc_rg/s1600/1+inch+Probablity.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="552" data-original-width="802" height="275" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJYGFF3twolseFHrx-Fz-ief4OOX4vGwDDWbtlxgu-KOnCAh0fhtTnNJ6IeVcsetPdyi6p1apIqB24hcS5qzv8hLnj1SASIIK8bRFSSt3CpUGKagC6fkbdfyaQh5LAnV-GHVc_rg/s400/1+inch+Probablity.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
This shows the probability of seeing a 2" snowfall:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0qdPLQTw4nP6L0GbHRYZ6oY1ZTEfRrf7CFY9Z45CEeZSjGNkOvURsv92oCqy1_IMuKkm-T7AiOxCFB9T-kblaJGW_NWnrtXFCdhwULDuEMLM_yEwtIWLy9Bc82fvMgcTLaUMvVA/s1600/2+inch+Probablity.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="549" data-original-width="805" height="272" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0qdPLQTw4nP6L0GbHRYZ6oY1ZTEfRrf7CFY9Z45CEeZSjGNkOvURsv92oCqy1_IMuKkm-T7AiOxCFB9T-kblaJGW_NWnrtXFCdhwULDuEMLM_yEwtIWLy9Bc82fvMgcTLaUMvVA/s400/2+inch+Probablity.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
This shows the probability of seeing a 4" snowfall:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPZUTAL7RBrTNf6otpmvUI6GSkhnL7FePXd-7iYF89IgV_cLVmTfiMSzak5S-oPhR8vjOaH2O3-vunt3ivTpqmua2f3U3fIU-ZMI-cV6uWJ05GxD9YxL1LC3Mnf9ZwAzwrmdZeSA/s1600/4+inch+Probablity.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="547" data-original-width="804" height="271" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPZUTAL7RBrTNf6otpmvUI6GSkhnL7FePXd-7iYF89IgV_cLVmTfiMSzak5S-oPhR8vjOaH2O3-vunt3ivTpqmua2f3U3fIU-ZMI-cV6uWJ05GxD9YxL1LC3Mnf9ZwAzwrmdZeSA/s400/4+inch+Probablity.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
And because there is always a surprises with upper-level lows, here's the probability of 6" of snow. Yes, Poplar Bluff has a 10% chance:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFujzLQbm1n5-69tL1N-HZnANbNTqm73n9B4dfE_ztHYkfKcdj8r2UQFJVHwL9_QPZ9L3Z9v23hhAobqFo3apxFfntqesGMol4DhkhDd-D1rx-hyXWwFHb4TBbGbZ5dtyb1KWH7A/s1600/6+inch+Probablity.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="551" data-original-width="801" height="275" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFujzLQbm1n5-69tL1N-HZnANbNTqm73n9B4dfE_ztHYkfKcdj8r2UQFJVHwL9_QPZ9L3Z9v23hhAobqFo3apxFfntqesGMol4DhkhDd-D1rx-hyXWwFHb4TBbGbZ5dtyb1KWH7A/s400/6+inch+Probablity.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
If you have stayed with me this far on the blog, let me also show you the raw numbers from the models. The probabilities match up well with the guidance of accumulations. Here are three models:</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEietYxwZxQjaEbeg8hqt6jaB0f1RZvpFGt7aqPirqUeN093DGP0B4u-Vx5y0H30mPbGSoAMnU9wZk0GRiEH7YPqEaFZBEx7-qcGCv32ZeU-vrx8Tv_sVypuahyRp6a28RHgddJRcg/s1600/NAM+totals.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="438" data-original-width="640" height="273" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEietYxwZxQjaEbeg8hqt6jaB0f1RZvpFGt7aqPirqUeN093DGP0B4u-Vx5y0H30mPbGSoAMnU9wZk0GRiEH7YPqEaFZBEx7-qcGCv32ZeU-vrx8Tv_sVypuahyRp6a28RHgddJRcg/s400/NAM+totals.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg60LG_w1oH5zDzYOZXH4MIgSWP_YQ-zBPSmNOZsFDE3akxr_FXYMmmIIudjF-cKCTGrmaRYIx25QEY1AnTGS_0veit5vW_C_8gxpdGh_8DXQOsGXrgUjGEKSHOP0hWEE6iO1T3Ag/s1600/GFS+totals.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="457" data-original-width="605" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg60LG_w1oH5zDzYOZXH4MIgSWP_YQ-zBPSmNOZsFDE3akxr_FXYMmmIIudjF-cKCTGrmaRYIx25QEY1AnTGS_0veit5vW_C_8gxpdGh_8DXQOsGXrgUjGEKSHOP0hWEE6iO1T3Ag/s400/GFS+totals.PNG" width="400" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_7vlzNKMX8uQbo1TGQIWRfzY78E0EbZiY3tALJ6tyD0kMn6vYPUFgeTBd4WspzsCTp30NNBk4EjeS3oiRNbvY3ihwHyyyVDFywdu_qk9gxsb4cqvyDl4Jaql9ZwRgvchkP4KryA/s1600/Euro+Snowfall+Accum.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_7vlzNKMX8uQbo1TGQIWRfzY78E0EbZiY3tALJ6tyD0kMn6vYPUFgeTBd4WspzsCTp30NNBk4EjeS3oiRNbvY3ihwHyyyVDFywdu_qk9gxsb4cqvyDl4Jaql9ZwRgvchkP4KryA/s400/Euro+Snowfall+Accum.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Stay tuned!!! This forecast may change.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Ryan</div>
Ryan Vaughanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08855838622162923663noreply@blogger.com0