Ryan's Blog

Sunday Morning Update, Tornado Threat 1/22/12

2012-01-22T07:25:00.000-06:00

While you were sleeping, the Storm Prediction Center issued a Moderate Risk for severe weather across parts of Region 8. The above image is the TORNADO risk. The greatest risk is in Eastern AR, West TN, and North MS. The scariest part of this possible outbreak, is that the tornado risk will be at night. Make sure you have a way to wake up if there is a tornado warning. Weather radios, FREE Severe weather text messages from www.kait8.com, or another App. DO NOT DEPEND ON OUTDOOR TORNADO SIRENS! They are for outdoor use!

The latest data seen above is the RUC data. It shows sufficient lift, shear and instability to support tornadoes. It shows the worst weather to occur overnight when many are sleeping. Overnight tornadoes are one of the reasons that the area highlighted in the Moderate Risk has the highest death rate in tornadoes! Let's change those statistics!

Don't panic, just be prepared!

I'm heading to Church and then to work. I'll be keeping you posted via Twitter (@ryanvaughan) and on air.

Ryan

Severe Threat Sunday, January 21

2012-01-21T14:18:00.000-06:00

It's been a chilly day across Region 8, but that will change! Much warmer is going to overspread Region 8 through Sunday as a warm front lives north. Here is the weather map for Sunday evening:

Notice the point where the occluded front, warm front, and cold front intersect in Arkansas. This is the "Triple point" and a focal point of severe weather. As I glance at the data this afternoon, it is clear that there will be a window of unstable air on Sunday evening. Notice the peak of CAPE. CAPE is the energy for strong storms. It peaks around 7PM:

Let me summarize this into simple bullet points that answer everything you need to know!

The threat exist for anywhere in Region 8, but especially areas closer to the MS River and eastward.
The threat will be late Sunday and Sunday Night.
This may come after sunset! Review your severe weather plans!
Main threat is damaging winds, but hail and tornadoes are possible as well.

I fully expect to be at work Sunday evening with Bryan Mccormick. Follow me on TWITTER at @ryanvaughan for the absolute latest info! A feed is on the right side of this page. ALSO, Follow @Region8News for instant warnings!

Ryan

First Snow of 2012?

2012-01-09T14:11:00.000-06:00

This is a program that we often use, especially in the winter. It is BUFKIT and it helps chew up the data that we look at each day. The timestamp at the bottom of the graphic goes from right to left. Click the image to enlarge.

I'm going to make this blog short and sweet because we are still several days out and the forecast is likely to change a few times, but since it is the first real sign of snow in 2012, let's have fun with it. Two features jump out on this graphic. The first is the green. That is the rain coming in tomorrow and tomorrow night (Tuesday). The next thing that jumps out are the blue bars. Blue on this program indicates snow. This would be Saturday night through Monday morning.Strictly using this program and taking it as truth (which we should not yet), it shows a 1-3" snowfall for parts of Region 8. So how do we know to think "Snow" instead of freezing rain or sleet? Let's take a look at the forecast sounding using the same data and I'll explain.

The above image is a forecast sounding and shows us what the temperature and dewpoint may look like at 7PM on Saturday evening according to this model. As you go from the bottom to the top (ground upward), the red line is the temperature and the green line is the dewpoint. I have clearly marked the freezing line in blue. Using this forecast sounding, the freezing line as you go up through the atmosphere is at 400 feet or so. 400 feet is not enough of a gap to melt the snow, so it would be snowing even when the temperature at the ground is above freezing. While it may be harder for the snow to stick, it would be snow... if this model verifies. Let's fast-forward in time a little bit...

In the above image, we have fast forwarded to Sunday morning at 7AM. Notice, the red line is completely to the left of the blue line, which is the freezing line. This would be all snow if this model verified. Later in the season, I'll explain some mixed precipitation soundings.

It's early and that's why I'm not going to drag out any details or say that I'm sold on anything, but it is something to watch. Bryan McCormick has also blogged about this setup and you can read his blog post here:
http://bryansweather.wordpress.com/2012/01/09/a-look-into-next-week/

I'm taking a sick day to help my wife who is sick and to take care of the kids. I hope to be back to work tomorrow, but tune into B-Mac tonight for the latest forecast!

Ryan

Christmas 2011

2011-12-29T08:55:00.000-06:00

Christmas 2011 was much different in our house this year. So different that we did not have enough room for the stockings. If you notice, we have some sitting on the bottom! Now that we have 4 kids, there was more wrapping paper, more noise, more fun, and more "untieing" of the the twisty grey straps for me. Fun times.

In addition to the larger immediate family, my sister came to town. It was great to have my sister here. I'm not sure how long it has been since I spent Christmas Eve in the same house as my sister, but it has had to be a LONG time.

Let's bring on 2012! I'm already pumped about the new year. I've already started my New Year's weight loss and toning and already booking the Summer vacation. I hate to admit this, but I'm already sick of winter. I'm more a hot weather kind of person!

I hope all of you had a blessed Christmas and that you are looking forward to 2012!

Ryan

Dual Pol Radar

2011-12-21T11:01:00.002-06:00

Radar has come a LONG way since the 60s. The above image is from NOAA and shows some tornadic storms from 1965. Since then, we now have color radar, Doppler capabilities, and many more products that help us track flooding, tornadoes, and severe storms.

All of us are familiar with the "reflectivity" product on radar. We use this product the most.

The above image is reflectivity or what we use to show where it is raining and how hard. This is the most popular radar product and for years has been very helpful. In recent times, the resolution has become MUCH better! That means it is more precise. Another radar product you see often during tornado coverage is "Velocity" data.

Velocity data shows us which direction the wind is moving and it's magnitude. Click image to enlarge. The green is the wind coming "toward" the radar site and the red is the wind going "away" from the radar site. Many times we show "Reflectivity" with the "Velocity" data in our scope. Now let's talk about some new products as of this month!

The NWS radar in Memphis has been upgraded to be a Dual Polarization radar! This is a project that is upgrading every NWS radar in the country by the end of 2013. Memphis is one of the first batch of radars to be upgraded. This is VERY good for us. Dual Pol radar not only sends out horizontal pulses, but vertical pulses. This helps to measure "WHAT" is falling from the sky and the size.

The new data will help determine precipitation types, rainfall rates, and hail detection. At KAIT, we have upgraded our radar display systems to have access to this data and to be able to show it to you on air! With that said, I'm not sure how often we will show it yet, but it is available. Here's what some of the data looks like using the same rain in the above images from last night.

The above image is "Differential Reflectivity" or "ZDR" and essentially can tell us the precipitation type and how large the raindrops are, and hail detection. I plan on making a radar legend for this product for typical values and what can be associated with those values. With StormTRACK Doppler 8, we can click the radar data to obtain the values and make some determination of what is falling from the sky.

The above image is "Correlation Coefficient": or CC data. I plan on using this to track ducks! LOL CC shows the behavior of of the pulses horizontally and vertically between each volume. Birds are not uniform and will change often and will be easily detected. Plain ole rain wills show up in shades of pink as seen above. If there was hail or snow with big snowflakes, it would react differently and you would see some shades of blues and greens, reds and oranges.

The above image here is Differential Phase or "KDP". I believe this is going to come in handy for Flash Flood events, but we need some real time events to see exactly how this will be used. It will show where the higher concentration of particles is located.

There's still a lot of studying to be done, but I'm excited about this new data we have to use at KAIT! To my knowledge, we may be the only television station with Dual Pol data for on-air use in Arkansas at this time. I'm still checking on that.

Have a great day!
Ryan

Great Arctic Blast of 1983

2011-12-13T11:12:00.001-06:00

Back in 1983, there was BIG blast of cold air in Region 8! The above image is the climate log from KAIT that month. Click the image to enlarge and look at the coooold weather! While we are going into the 50s and 60s today, they were in the 40s and 30s and about to enter a streak of sub freezing temperatures! Some of the numbers to highlight in the image above are:

December 19, 1983: High 15, Low: 8
Christmas Eve, 1983: High: 6, Low: -1
Christmas Day. 1983: High: 13, Low: -5 on Christmas morning!!!

Here are some more climate logs from December of 1983. Click on them and check them out. This next one is from Paragould:

And finally, here's one from Pocahontas. Brrrr, -8 is COLD:

I hope you enjoyed looking back at the VERY cold December of 1983! It's neat to look back at the old climate logs.

Have a great day!
Ryan

Oh Christmas Tree!

2011-12-12T11:04:00.000-06:00

I can remember when I was a kid, I would want to sleep on the couch to stare at the lights! While I still love the tree, sleeping on the couch is not as comfortable anymore! The above picture is this year's tree, or at least one of them. My wife also has a tree at the back of the house that the kid's put ornaments on each year!

Let's go through some of my favorite ornaments! First, my Krispy Kreme donuts "Hot" sign. If you have ever lived near a Krispy Kreme bakery, you know the HOT sign well and know you must stop if you see it!

The next ornament is the pickle ornament. I'm not sure why it has become one of the favorites, but it has.

The next ornament was given to me by Lisa Patton at WKRN. It's a "Our First Christmas" ornament that was given to my wife and I when we were married. Of course, it will always be an important one.

This is our newest ornament and is great! That's a lot of reindeer! As Sarah mentioned in the Storm Center just now, we almost have enough to pull Santa's sleigh!

The next one was given to me by Weather Watcher, Jason Hampton. It's a beloved WKU football helmet!

And as many of you know, I'm a big Titans fan and we must have a Titans ornament...

That's a quick look at our tree! I hope you guys have a very Merry Christmas!

Ryan

Top Buttons Are Important!

2011-12-07T23:45:00.000-06:00

I typically go to work with no tie one, but put one on right before the news.. I'm not a huge fan of ties. I like wearing suits and actually find them more comfortable than jeans, but ties are a little stuffy. Today, I go to put on my tie about 45 minutes before news time and the top button on my shirt is MISSING! I considered not wearing a tie on air, but I don't feel right doing that unless I have a blue shirt on. So, I go searching for a solutions. Back when Brandi Hodges worked at KAIT, she would take care of problems like this, but she left us for the library. So... I go searching for a sewing kit.

Craig, nope. Diana says maybe and searches her car... nope. Other employees in the newsroom.... nope, nope, and nope. So, I head to the other end of the building and stop by our Network Administrators's office. To my surprise, he has a sewing kit!!! Problem solved, right? Wrong... I'm not a seamstress!

I have 20 minutes to sew on a button, get dressed, tie a tie, mic up and be on the news. Somehow, some way... I got it done. I was a little worried all night that the button would pop off and my tie would look crazy, but it held together.

In the future, I'm going to have a sewing kit in the storm center, OR I'm going to buy one of these cool things:
Automatic Button Sewer- Click here

That would be a cool stocking stuffer! Anywho, I'm heading to bed soon. Tomorrow is my Friday!

Ryan

Nine Years Ago

2011-12-05T21:44:00.000-06:00

Nine years ago, my wife and I were sitting at the Jonesboro Christmas parade. It was COLD and we were walking the streets of downtown. My wife was 9 months pregnant and due at any moment. This would be the last day for us to go out alone without a babysitter for many years! After a day of errands and an evening at the Christmas Parade, we went home to sleep... a few hours later, she went into labor.

I was scared when I first became a father. I felt too young, too irresponsible, too broke, too weak, and too unprepared. I have come to realize that you are never 100% prepared and that you have to depend on God for guidance and preparation. I'm sure if you ask anyone if they felt prepared for their first kid and they would say no... I didn't feel prepared for #2 either... or #3 and #4. The road that my wife and I have taken is one that can only be supported by the strength of Jesus. It's been a blast, but not easy.

As I reflect on my oldest son's birthday, I can honestly say that I KNOW he is going to make me proud. In fact, he is already making me proud! He is a Christ-filled child. He makes straight A's. He's athletic. He's polite..... and he says yes sir and no mam! God has truly blessed us. He's not perfect and he can have his off days, but I am very proud to call him my son!

Happy Birthday Big Guy!
Ryan

Snake!

2011-12-02T08:24:00.001-06:00

While doing my normal routine of sitting at the bar, drinking my coffee, and catching up on the morning news I hear my youngest daughter say, "SNAKE"! I turn around and find this...

The joy of daughters.... It's a short blog, but just a reminder that kids are funny people. I decided today that I need to start recording their audio. Listening to what they say now in 10 years will be priceless.

By the way, the snake was a piece of bark.

Have a blessed day!
Ryan

Um... There are Two Decks

2011-12-01T21:28:00.000-06:00

I have thought this before, I realized for sure tonight that there are people out there that think the trailer we pull behind the StormTRACKER in parades and events is the same "Weather Deck" we occasionally do weather on during the newscasts. That makes me laugh!

The weather deck that is permanent at KAIT is a multi-level deck that is perched several feet above the ground. It's VERY nice and if I did not mention it already... is permanent! There is a large deck on top, which has a rain gauge and several weather instruments, stairs that go down to another part of the deck, and landscaping all around it. There's also a Christmas tree that we need to decorate!

At 5:00, I showed the leftover snow on the weather deck (which is seen above) and when we rode in the parade tonight, 4-5 people asked why there was no snow on the deck! So, as I walked into the studio tonight, I took this picture to prove it.

I hope this clears it up,
Ryan

Mad People

2011-11-30T20:22:00.002-06:00

Tomorrow is the start of December! It's the first day of Meteorological Winter, which simply means that us weather geeks count by months and Dec, Jan, Feb, and Mar are winter. More importantly though, it is the happiest month of the year! Right? I don't think so...

It sure seems that we have a lot of angry people in the world. I'll admit that even I have been a little grumpy over the past 2 days. I blame it on being sick, but even if I were not sick, I could come up with another excuse.

On my way to work today, a lady in a white Lexus zoomed beside me in the fast lane and was slowed by someone driving slow in the left lane. I was going a little faster and she got into my lane and rode my bumper. Keep in mind, I'm in the slow lane going 5 mph over... so I'm not going to speed up for her. She's hitting the steering wheel, yanks it back and forth between lanes until she can squeeze through. I understood her frustration. I get mad at people who camp out in the fast lane, too. But I never get mad at the people in the slow lane going 5 over! Here's the kicker though... she turned 2 blocks later. What?

Fast-forward to tonight. We are airing the Arkansas Razorback game on KAIT and preempting The Middle and some other shows. People are MAD. Comments on Facebook, Twitter, emails, phonecalls, etc from people who either want to watch The Middle or just don't want Hog Basketball. Some people don't even know what would be on the channel if the Hog game was not on! They are just disgruntled ASU fans that think we are trying to convert them! Settle down everyone, anything you missed can be found tomorrow on www.kait8.com on our episode player. It's a TV show. Calm down. If you don't like Razorback basketball, I understand! I don't either. Take the time to turn off the TV and enjoy your family. It won't hurt our feelings. With that said, there are A LOT of Razorback fans watching the game and enjoying it tonight. More power to them.

As we enter into December, be happy. Stop getting so worked up over things. I have several more examples, but I'll pass for now.

Have a great week everyone!
Ryan

Severe Threat for Tuesday November 8th?

2011-11-07T09:25:00.001-06:00

This is one of those awkward times when some people are making it sound like we are going to have a major tornado outbreak and I'm not even completely sold on severe weather. I think we will hear thunder, see some heavy rain in spots, and may even see a few severe thunderstorm warnings, BUT it does not appear to be an impending severe weather outbreak. Let's look at data. First, this is a program we use called BUFKIT to chew on the data and display it. This is the NAM model:

The above image shows a lot of stuff, because I put two windows in one. More or less, the green bars show when it is going to rain and how much and the box on the right shows some numbers that help us determine the severe weather threat. First, most of the rain will be after sunset and we should see between 0.50"-1.00" depending on isolated downpours. Second, let's look at some severe weather parameters. Click image to enlarge, if you wish. First, NAM shows CAPE (instability) peaking at around 400. That's enough to see some isolated storms, but not that impressive. Areas in OK and WESTERN AR may see this number go above 1000 at times over the next 36 hours and they have a higher severe weather threat. The EHI number is not concerning and the Lifted Index, which I have spoken about before... also, not impressive. It's at -1 according to NAM and should be lower for severe weather.... like -4 or lower. There are several other things to look at, but the overall trend is that this is not a severe weather outbreak. Storms: YES. Thunder: YES. Some Watches and Warnings: Probably So. Outbreak: Doubt it.

GFS model has pretty much come in line with the NAM as well. Most of the rain is after dark with limited instability.

I'll still be in the Storm Center as the storm system moves through and I'll be giving updates as needed. Follow me on Twitter and Facebook as well.

www.twitter.com/ryanvaughan <<<--- Best source
www.facebook.com/ryanvaughanweather

Prepare and stay informed, but don't alter your plans too much.
Ryan

Update On HD Conversion, Almost Done!

2011-10-05T23:58:00.000-05:00

I have been banned from showing any pics of the the new set, but it is built and the lighting experts are here this week to position the lights. The picture above was one of the only pictures that I got approved to show on the blog. It's "part" of the set being delivered before they built it. I also took a picture of a part of the storm center desk...

I'm sorry that I can't show more, but we want it to be a surprise. When we debut it, I'll give you some "behind the scene" shots as it was being built.

The designers of the new KAIT set have built sets in Los Angeles, Atlanta, Orlando, Pittsburgh, Nashville, and even Fox Sports! You are going to be impressed.

Stay tuned!
Ryan

HD Conversion Update- Control Room Operational! 9/27/11

2011-09-27T08:32:00.000-05:00

Stadium seating! In the above picture, you are sitting in the new audio booth of the new HD Control Room at KAIT! You are looking through some glass and the next row is where the Producers sit. In front of the producers would be where the Director sits during the newscast. Lots and lots of monitors, to monitor live feeds, other stations, storm chase feeds, live shots, and Judge Judy.;)

In the above picture, you can see one of our directors during Region 8 News at 10:00 last night. This is where all of the buttons are pushed to show you video of the day's news!

They are in the process of building the new set now and the new Storm Center is at least 5 times larger than the old storm center! Fun times at KAIT! I can't wait until you guys see it!

Stay tuned for more updates,
Ryan

HD Conversion Update- New Control Room 9/23/11

2011-09-23T08:00:00.002-05:00

For years, we have been in the Control Room in the picture above. It gets the job done, but it's not the best layout for these guys and gals. It's also not suited for an HD newscast. For those that don't know, the control room is the area where all of "buttons are pushed". When you see video, the guy in the far distance hits the button to make it roll. When you see someone's name on the bottom of the screen, someone in this room does it. When someone is talking into our earpiece about severe weather or breaking news, it comes from this room. Starting THIS weekend (before the new set is revealed), we will start using the NEW HIGH DEFINITION control room!

As you can see from this picture, they are still working on it and many more monitors will be added before they use it on Saturday. I'll give you more updates when it is completed. You may not tell a difference when we change control rooms, but it paves the way toward the HD conversion of Region 8 News!

Ryan

HD Conversion Update 9/22/11

2011-09-22T09:43:00.000-05:00

We have an empty shell now! In order for the new set to be built, we had to completely demolish, empty, and clean the old studio. In the above picture, you are looking at the future East Side Studio. This will house the set for interviews, reporter stand-ups, and is also the door that leads to the Weather Deck. As you can see, it is empty and the floors have been redone with a HIGHLY industrial paint. It's shiny too! Now to more pictures!

The above picture is still in the East Studio, looking the other direction. You can still see one walls of the old storm center. As soon as the new set is installed, those computers will move and that will just be a wall. If you look through the opening, that is the main studio that will house the future news desk and the awesome storm center! The floors were still a little sticky, so I could not go in there. Believe me, it's just an empty shell.

One downfall has been the smell! The paint needed for a studio floor has to be TOUGH. This means that we had to use some STRONG paint. When I say STRONG... everything about it is STRONG. The smell on Tuesday night was horrible.

We know there will be some uncomfortable moments, some challenges, and some smells that we will have to deal with over the next few weeks. With that said, the final product is going to be awesome and worth it!

More updates coming soon. In case you don't know, we are also getting a BRAND NEW control room. I'll blog about that next!

Ryan

HD Conversion Update 9/20/11

2011-09-20T08:48:00.000-05:00

Over the next few weeks, I'm going to blog about the HUGE transition that is taking place at KAIT! On Friday, we earnestly started the demolition on the news set at KAIT. Craig was having some fun after the 10:00 news! As you can see, we are excited at work! This set has been with us for awhile, with some changes here and there. We have seen Tony Brooks, Dick Clay, Terry Wood, Mark Frankum, Daryl Hobby, Glen Marini, and many more great people deliver news, weather, and sports from this set. It has a deep history, but it's time for a dramatic change!

In the above picture, two legendary people at KAIT (Gerald Erickson and Ronnie Weston) are taking down the Region 8 Storm Center. We started this process earlier last week. Lots of tornado warnings have been covered in that room! From Terry Wood, Shane Carter, Ron Smiley, Mark Frankum, Chad Watson, etc... A lot of work has been done in that area! My first tornado warning from here, was my first day on air at KAIT! It was 10+ years ago for a Tornado Warning in Cross County. After the midday show on Friday, another part of the studio started to come down...

As you see, it has been a VERY busy area lately. The room you see above is now an empty shell. I'll show it in the next update.

I'll keep you posted on the process, but I'm not going to let too much out on what the final product looks like. I want to let you see that in gorgeous HD video in the coming weeks! In the meantime, we're on a temporary set!

Stay tuned!
Ryan

Rain On Friday?

2011-09-14T23:56:00.000-05:00

Sometimes there is data, sometimes it's a gut feeling, and sometimes it is a little of both. I'm concerned that some football games on Friday night will have some rain. Not much and it will not last long, but I don't want someone caught off guard.

The above image is a 500mb map or what you may refer to as an "upper-level" map. If you click on the map to enlarge you will see some shades of greens, yellows, and reds across Arkansas. This indicates a small "hiccup" in the atmosphere or "upper-level disturbance". This is what may spark off some showers and storms. This next map shows a simulation of what the radar might look like...

Notice, there is green on the map. While this model shows rain and so does our "in-house" computer model (StormCAST)... not all data supports this solution. This is when the gut feeling kicks in.... My gut feeling says we need to have the rain chances higher than 20% and if I wake up tomorrow morning with similar data, I will be increasing the rain chances fro Friday. Stay tuned!

Ryan

Where is Tornado Alley?

2011-09-14T11:25:00.000-05:00

The above map was released by the SPC recently and it shows the number of tornadoes per state on average, per year, using the data from 1981-2010. At first, you would think that the most likely place to be hit by a tornado is Texas, but we have to remember that the data is skewed because of the size of Texas. This next map is a better representation.

The above map shows the Average Annual number of Tornadoes per 10K square miles, per state. As you look at THIS map, you have to ask where tornado alley exist. I think a person could argue that tornado alley is a little more South and East than people think.

We have had some very quiet weather for a few months in Region 8. Let's remember that we typically see severe storms and tornadoes in the fall as well. Let me encourage you to review your severe weather plans at work, school, and home!

Ryan

My 9/11

2011-09-10T23:20:00.000-05:00

My wife and I lived in a house in the Turtle Creek Mall area. At the time, there was no mall... just a field. She had left for work and I was getting ready for the day. I worked at KAIT as the weekend meteorologist and reported during the week from time to time, so I was to be at work at 9:00. While brushing my teeth, I heard a little blurb on the TV about a plane hitting the WTC. My mom called and also told me about the report. I thought it was bad, but I also thought is was a small plane and that it was an accident. I continued to get ready for work.

My college roommate called me and wanted to know what was going on. He was in traffic in Nashville and was hearing the reports on the radio. As I talked to him and sat on my couch watching GMA, I saw the second jet hit the 2nd Tower on LIVE TV. I was shocked! I saw the outline of the fuselage and knew it was a large jet. Because of the shadows, it looked solid black and I did not think it was a commercial airliner, but rather a military jet from another country. Honestly, I think I said a few explicit words as I told my close friend what I was seeing. It made no sense. It was something I had never seen or imagined. And it was something that was obviously deliberate. Within minutes, the text pagers that were issued by KAIT read "All staff report to KAIT NOW"...

At work, there was really not much to do in the morning. ABC News was handling most of the coverage and we watched.... We quickly found out some local impacts. The most shocking was the fact that one of OUR reporter's dad was in the WTC. Allison Martin's Dad was in one of the towers. As you can imagine, the emotions ran high at KAIT until we heard he was OK. In addition to her dad, we found out that Adam Staples from Region 8 was in the building. We hear he is OK and get an interview from him. Unfortunately, we then hear about a young lady from Batesville that worked for the airlines. She had died and quickly we assembled a crew to go to Batesville. I was the photographer in that crew and we set out for Batesville for the day.

At home that night, I walked in and hugged my wife for a long time. We were young and had no kids. I vividly remember telling her that I don't trust the world and that I did not want to bring kids into this world. It seemed uncertain, violent, unsafe, and the future did not seem to have any light. We went out to the grocery to ease our minds and to buy ice cream. (Typical thing for a young couple). Most people were at home and the aisles were empty. The people that were there, had blank stares and we all looked at each other with the same uncertain and scared faces.

The next Sunday, my wife and I were still searching for a Church home. We went to Highland Drive Baptist and it was packed. We sat in folding chairs because so many people had come to church looking for answers.

The country was united! There were no Republicans or Democrats. There was no Tea Party. There was America and we were all Americans.

Today, we are torn apart again. The Churches are not running the numbers that they were in September of 2001. I'm not sure what else I can say about it, except that we have forgotten. America has forgotten what it was like to walk the aisles of a grocery store on the evening of 9/11/01. We have forgotten the peace we got from Christ on the Sunday after. We have forgotten that people are STILL dying today to fight the evil that rammed jets into our buildings! I'm just as guilty as everyone else...

Can't say much more.
Ryan

Windy Labor Day!

2011-09-05T08:50:00.001-05:00

For weeks, we have been stuck in hot, humid and stagnate air! That has changed! In the above map, I have plotted the winds (colors), wind direction, and pressure. The reason it is colder is because we had a cold front push through, but the reason it is breezy is because of the pressure gradient between Tropical Depression Lee and the center of High Pressure NW of us. Click image to enlarge.

The green lines are lines of equal pressure. Like a topographic map, the closer the lines are together... the "steeper" the gradient is... and the windier it is.Can you see how close the lines are over Arkansas? The shades of blues also indicate the winds at 20-30 mph.

I'd venture to say that this is the most comfortable Labor Day we have had in a long time! Enjoy it!

I'm laboring on this Labor Day, but it is the greatest job on Earth... so no complaints. I'll see you at 5:00 and 6:00 from the weather deck!

Ryan

A New Past Time

2011-08-30T09:45:00.000-05:00

I'm tired of the blog always being about weather. I'm going back to the roots of this blog, which talked more about life. Here's a new past time for my boys and I, model cars. When I was a kid, I loved doing model cars. I can vividly remember that they were not constructed very well and I frequently left out the little parts that were hard to glue on. Therefore, my cars had no alternators, oil filters, side mirrors, etc. As I start this new adventure with the boys, we're going to try to be a little more meticulous.

Side note: As a kid, I would take a lighter, heat the plastic suspension, and lower cars. I was a pro at making a car have "three-wheel motion". Some of you will know what that is...

The most challenging part has been the painting. A few streaks, a few bubbles, blemish here and there, but I think we're getting the hang of it. I think the key is primer, which we failed to use a time or two. As I mentioned, I did not like the small parts that gave the cars detail as a kid, but adding those pieces really give it a nice touch. My oldest son is a little more "into" the model cars than the youngest and I've been teaching him the parts of a car as we construct them.

Yes... that's an oil filter on the Challenger we are constructing.

I think we will tackle a NASCAR next. If you have ever done a NASCAR model car, then you know that the painting and decals are a challenge. I'll keep you posted.

Ryan

Irene Looks Mean

2011-08-23T07:57:00.000-05:00

The SE islands of the Bahamas are getting hit pretty good by Irene today. My wife and I met a meteorologist and his family in Nassau a couple of years ago. I'm going to try to call him today to see what it is like in Nassau, Bahamas today as they prepare for Irene. It should come very close to their city. I'm going to assume that he may be a little busy, but if I can get a phone interview... I'll air it on Region 8 News. It clearly looks like this is an East Coast storm now, but the overall weather pattern WILL be impacted and in an indirect way, it will affect us in Region 8. Take a look at the WRF model and what it does with Irene:

This shows a North Carolina landfall. This is bad for North Carolina and my cousin (an ER Doc) in Salisbury, Maryland. However, my Dad in West Palm Beach, FL and friends that are heading to Disney World are quite happy with the forecast path (I'm guessing).

With the counter-clockwise rotation of the hurricane, this will help draw down some drier and cooler air for us in the wake of the cold front. It may get a little breezy as well, since we will be between the strong ridge and the low (Irene) to the East. Here's a graph of the dewpoint to show the break from the Mugginess:

In summary... I am ready to lose this muggy air.

Ryan

Hello! The Tropics Are Heating Up!

2011-08-20T00:05:00.000-05:00

I haven't blogged in awhile and I can blame that on two things. First, the weather gets pretty boring in the Summer. Second, my personal life has been really, really busy. I'm not willing to share details at this point, but our family adopted 2 little girls shortly after we returned from Alaska several weeks back. With 4 kids, I spend more time being Dad than the blogging weather guy! God has really blessed our family, but the transition takes up lots of time.

Let's talk weather though right now...

This first map is for next Thursday and this bowling ball in the Tropics could be a big news story by NEXT weekend! Click images to enlarge.

Models are still going back and forth between a FL hit or a North-Central GOM hit. GOM stands for Gulf of Mexico....Even each individual model varies from each run. For example, the data coming in this evening shows this storm coming into the GOM and heading back over FL and then hitting the East Coast! I think that's kind of what Charley did a few years back. Here's the map valid for next Saturday:

As I said though... the models have shifted some. The earlier run of the GFS showed a large hurricane in the center of the GOM next weekend. See map:

Regardless of which track it takes, it should be a big news story by next week. Stay tuned and I'l keep you posted. If the storm tracks west... we could get some rain and wind. If the naming goes as expected.... this sould be Irene.

We'll watch it!
Ryan

Heat Now, But Relief In... 10 days?

2011-07-16T19:23:00.001-05:00

The above map is the upper-level map for today. While it may looks a little confusing, focus on the circle that I put text on.... That's the ridge of high pressure. That is what has kept us mostly dry today, with the exception of a few isolated storms. As we head into the middle of the week, we see more heat and the ridge is still strong on us:

So, in the above image (Wed) it still shows a hot and rather dry pattern, BUT we may see some changes in about 10 days! Look at this image from the GFS model for 10 days out:

The above image is for July 27th. It shows the center of high pressure (ridge) west of us and a trough (u-shaped feature) over us and the Eastern part of the USA. This would be a wetter and cooler pattern for us! Could this happen? We'll see... I won't be here on the 27th, so if it happens... enjoy it for me. :)

PS- When I say cooler, I mean highs in the 80s versus 90s and 100s. Fall is still several weeks away, so don't get too excited!

Have a good day!
Ryan

Windy British Open

2011-07-15T18:04:00.000-05:00

This is the "Euro" or European model. While our weather is boring, a nationally televised event may be greatly impacted by weather! The British Open has a big area of low pressure coming in just in time for the weekend!

If you do not like watching golf, you may like watching it this weekend because it will be a little more interesting to see how they play in 35-45 mph winds and nasty weather.

Are you going to watch it?
Ryan

Tracy Arm

2011-06-30T00:51:00.000-05:00

Tracy Arm might be the coolest place I have ever been! It's a Fjord in Alaska named after the Civil War General, Benjamin Franklin Tracy. As we started getting close to the fjord, we started seeing icebergs in the water. They were BLUE, very BLUE. We were told that they are so blue because of the density of the ice. Everyone was out looking at the site. We were on the back deck with many of the people from our group. It made for great pictures! Here are a few that we took:

We also saw a lot of cool things in nature, including waterfalls... and Bald Eagles. Can you spot the Eagle in this first shot:

I have so many pics of this place, but will stop here. If you ever get the chance to go to Tracy Arm in Alaska, DO IT!!!

More to come,
Ryan

On The Boat...

2011-06-30T00:24:00.001-05:00

So many things happened on the boat! I'll go ahead and tell you that our luggage did not make it and neither did the luggage of three others in our group. Thanks American Airlines! Our tour guide, Greg, rocked though. He made sure that our clothes were cleaned, that we had clothes from the stores on-board, and that we even had a some formal-wear for dinner! The above picture is what I did 80% of the time on the boat (covered my shorts with a jacket) and the pictures below are during formal dining time at night.

As you can see, we were still having a great time without luggage! Here are some more pictures of people in our group. First, Vic and Jeanie. Vic is a friend of ours from Church. Him and Jeanie are great!

Another group we bonded with were the "three sisters". They were so much fun! Some of the comments from them made me blush! They were with us in Chicago when the storm canceled our flight and almost blew us away!

We had a great time at dinner. I'll admit that I had to step out for some fresh air every now and then, but overall... the motion sick medicine was working!

The boat was moving north and the scenery to come is the greatest I have ever seen! Pics coming in next post!

Ryan

Bon Voyage!

2011-06-30T00:05:00.000-05:00

Being a person that can get motion sick from riding in the back seat of a car for a couple of miles, I was a little concerned about this trip. All 50 of us from Region 8 boarded the ship, ate lunch, and went back out to enjoy the skyline of Vancouver. We sailed away at 5:00 and had a GREAT view of the city. At this point, we were still not sure if we had our luggage or not, but we did not care that much... we were having fun!

One of my favorite things at the start of the cruise was watching the float planes take off and land. This is not something we see too often in Arkansas! At this point, we were just getting to know everyone on the trip. It's amazing how we went from being strangers to good friends in a week! On the first evening, my wife and I hung out on the deck enjoying the scenery.

The bridge seen above is similar to the Golden Gate bridge. It was pretty cool to see as we left. There were some kids looking over the edge waving at us and the Captain blew the horn a couple of times, which scared me to death.

Still no luggage, but happy :)
Ryan

Leaving Seattle For Vancouver

2011-06-29T20:47:00.000-05:00

So we left Seattle for Vancouver last Wednesday to board the ship. We were told that our luggage would be in Vancouver for us before we got on the ship (remember that for later ;)) Jenn and I had been to Seattle before, but still enjoy seeing the Boeing Jets! Boeing builds many of their jets in the Seattle area! Here are a couple of shots of the cool jets!

We quickly get to Vancouver and I quickly notice that the city is AWESOME! I'm not sure why, but I really like it... Here are some shots of the scenery as you come into Vancouver:

We had considered a quick run to the mall to buy some clothes in case ours did not arrive, but chose to wait and see if they were waiting on the ship.... to be continued.

Ryan

On the Way To Alaska, Catch up Post

2011-06-29T20:39:00.001-05:00

Sorry that I could not blog on my Alaska/Canada Trip! I should have known that data was limited! Anywho, let me take you through the trip over the next few posts.

The above image is from the Chicago airport last Tuesday. We were under a TORNADO WARNING while on the jet on the taxiway. This warning came after we sat on the jet for 2 1/2 hours for weather delays! When the tornado warning was issued, they did not want to let us off of the jet to go inside! They pilot said we would be safer on the jet and said... "It's only a warning". I assume he does not know the difference between a watch and warning. Anywho, they finally let us off.

While waiting for the jet to take off, I snapped this shot of all of the jets grounded:

To make a LONG story short... we finally took another flight and arrived in Seattle at 2:30 AM, which was 4:30 AM our time! When we arrived, we did not have our luggage!!! 6 others from our group traveled on the same route we did and three were without luggage as well!

To be continued,
Ryan

Bumpy Start

2011-06-21T11:45:00.001-05:00

Not many flights were canceled this morning, but one of the ones that were canceled included our flight to Dallas, which would lead us to our connection to Seattle. Transferring flights for a group as large as ours is a challenge, but our tour guide, Greg, is doing great.

18 people in our group got direct flights to Seattle and ended up in a much better position, but a handful will not arrive until midnight. We're with the group that arrives around 8pm. It's nobody's fault, just a side effect of travel.

As I sit here and blog from the Memphis Airport, I realize that we may be a little later than expected, but should still end up in Seattle tonight and be on a boat in Alaska tomorrow!

Ryan

Published with Blogger-droid v1.7.2

Active Weather This Week and A Little Cooler

2011-06-20T10:33:00.000-05:00

It's still warm and muggy across Region 8 today, but some changes are coming this week and it looks rather active. First off, let's look at the projected 5 day precipitation forecast from the HPC (Hydrological Prediction Center). Notice they project 1.50-2.00" of rain in Region 8 over the next 5 days:

In addition to this rainfall, we will see a change in temperature due to an increase in clouds and rain, but also from cooler/drier air working in from the north. Here are the projected 1 PM temperatures via the GFS model for today:

Not only will it be warm today, but the mugginess is with us as well. The map below is the projected Dewpoints for tomorrow, which really shows the muggy air pooling ahead of the storm system. Dewpoints in the 70s translates into some VERY muggy air... which is typical for us in the Summer months:

Now... let's watch the change unfold... Look at the dewpoints by the end of the Wednesday. Do you see the 50s and 60s on the dewpoint moving in on Wednesday? That's the change:

By the end of the week, the temperatures will start getting cooler. Here are the temperatures on Thursday. Can you see that colder air in Northern MO? Will it make it here? Some of it will...

By Friday, the cooler air really starts working in... With rain chances, clouds, and cooler air "advecting" into Region 8, here are the projected 1PM temperatures via the GFS model at 1PM on Friday:

NOW.. This is NOT a BLAST of cold air. It's NOT that huge of a change, but it will be better than the 100 degree weather we had! While we transition weather patterns this week, we will see some decent rain chances.

I'm leaving for Alaska/Canada tomorrow morning and will be blogging from the trip. We're expecting clouds, highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s on our trip!

Have a great week!
Ryan

Ice Cream Cake!

2011-06-19T15:06:00.002-05:00

I'm testing the Blog App from my phone by posting a pic of my wife's homemade ice cream cake that she made for Father's Day! It's awesome!

Using this App, I hope to blog from our Alaska trip via my phone.

Take care!
Ryan

Published with Blogger-droid v1.7.1

June Tornadoes Are Rare

2011-06-15T01:18:00.001-05:00

The above image is an estimated map of the tornado path from yesterday. The NWS has given the damage a rating of EF1 with winds near 90 mph and ruled that the damage south of Greene County was caused by straight-line winds. If you click the image to enlarge, you can clearly see that the tornado was east of the the city limits of Paragould. I have heard that the sirens did not go off in Paragould and if you notice on the map... that was a good call. They are tornado sirens, not straight-line wind sirens. The tornado warning was issued for threats outside of Paragould's City limits.

As I mentioned on the news, Facebook, and Twitter... Tornadoes in June are RARE in Region 8. In fact, Monday's tornado in Greene County was only the SECOND tornado in June since 1873. In 1954, a tornado touched down on South 12th street between Linwood Cemetery and what we now know as AMMC. If we had a skycam in 1954, this tornado would have video! Here's a map of the F2 tornado that hit in 1954 (click to enlarge):

.
Here are the number of June tornadoes since 1873 for the following counties.

Clay County: 3
Craighead: 1
Lawrence: 2
Poinsett: 2
Randolph: 1
Mississippi: 5
Dunklin, MO: 3
Pemiscot, MO: 6

As you can see, these numbers are rather low. Having a total of 1-6 tornadoes in your county over 138 years is quite impressive. Let's not let our guard down in June, but let's also realize how rare it was to see a tornado in Greene County yesterday!

Have a great week,

Ryan

Recap of Yesterday's Storm, 6/13/11

2011-06-14T10:09:00.002-05:00

A lot of folks say they were caught off guard by the storms yesterday and I'm not sure why. Here is why nobody should have been caught off guard:

If you look at THIS blog post from last Tuesday, I talked about the chance of MCS type activity (glob of storms)
Justin mentioned that some of the storms could be strong in Sunday night's newscast
Justin was tracking the storms in MO yesterday morning on GMR8 and mentioned them heading south.
Storm Prediction Center had a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect for a couple of hours prior to the storm.
The Severe TS warnings gave 15-45 minute lead times.
We had information on the bottom of the screen on KAIT, including radar. From 12:00 to almost 2:00 we broke into regular programming.
We sent instant updates via Twitter and Facebook.

With all of that said, we still had people surprised by the storms. I think when we get into the summer months, people let their guard down. Granted, we only had a 30-40% chance of rain, but that does not mean you can't have severe weather. People think that if it is not 80% or higher, they will stay dry. Let me put this in perspective. If your doctor told you that there is a 30% chance that you will die of a heart attack today, you would be scared to death. When we say there is a 30% chance of storms and some could be strong, most people think they will stay dry. Perspective. Let me get back on track! Ha!

Here is a look at radar at 11:10 am yesterday. Also plotted on this map from the NWS are the storm reports from yesterday's storm:

If you notice in the above image, the storms are entering Arkansas. We already had warnings for counties in Southern MO and the NWS had issued warnings in NE Arkansas, providing as much as 45 minutes to take cover. This next image is at 11:35 am and the winds are really starting to get wild with the storms as they move from Clay County into Greene County. Notice the storms reports from the storm as it raced south. Click the image to enlarge. At this time, SVR warnings were in effect, giving people a 30-45 minute warning:

This next image is from 12:05 PM and the wind damage had occurred in Paragould with numerous trees down, some structural damage, and signs damaged. 4 minutes before this image, a tornado warning was issued for parts of this storm (click to enlarge):

The storm continued to race south with 70-80 mph wind gusts! Parts of Craighead and Mississippi County had extensive wind damage. This radar image is from 12:25 PM:

Even though the rain had not arrived in many locations, the winds arrived much earlier causing a major dust storm in many areas. Take a look at this wild footage from Caraway! This was taken from Bryan McCormick of Region 8 News:

The NWS should be in Region 8 today to survey the damage and to determine if we had a tornado. There were some indications of a tornado on radar from SE Greene County to Mississippi County, but the surveys will determine what caused the damage. Regardless, the straight-line winds need to be taken seriously and those winds caused most of the damage from yesterday.

As we head into the summer months, let's make sure we have a way to get the warnings. There are several ways to get instant warnings:

Weather Radio
KAIT
www.kait8.com
Twitter feed of @Region8News
Facebook page of Region 8 News

Stay "weather aware". The warnings were there, but if you do not have a way to get them... they are worthless to you.

Take care,

Ryan

Wild Dust Storm

2011-06-12T00:03:00.001-05:00

Twitvid - andrewsloan

Published with Blogger-droid v1.7.1

What's An MCS or MCC?

2011-06-07T09:42:00.000-05:00

A Mesoscale Convective System or Mesoscale Convective Complex is simply a big glob of storms! Kind of. During the summer months, storms fire along some sort of trigger in the heat of the afternoon and then are steered over long distances through the upper-level winds. Typically, it starts as a few strong storms and then spreads out into large blob of rain and thunderstorms. These are typically where we get our "million $$$ rains" for farmers in the summer. Whenever I see a pattern change that draws a NW flow in the summer, I start getting more optimistic about a million dollar rain.

Not much rain today! Here's the upper-level pattern right now. If you notice, the upper level ridge is ruling us and surrounding areas.

Over the next couple of days this ridge will break down and little and we should see a few pop-up storms. It's not a huge chance of rain, but a 10-20% chance of a pop-up storm. You can see the ridge breaking down a little here on Thursday:

Next week is when I think we "may" see a MCC/MCS move through. Notice that the ridge is south of us or at least we are on the NW side of the ridge. The lines tend to show the movement of the upper-level winds and notice the NW flow that is trying to set up. We're right on the edge and I might be wishcasting a little, but we may get some rain in Region 8 with this pattern:

It may happen... There's a chance, but it is not guaranteed. We do have a 30-40% chance of rain Sun-Mon and even that may be pushing it. We'll see.

Stay cool everyone!
Ryan

Hurricane Season and Region 8

2011-06-06T22:30:00.000-05:00

The above image shows the paths of the tropical systems that have impacted Jonesboro within 100 miles. If you notice, we have reasons to watch the tropics closely. If you recall, on a Sunday morning in September of 2008, we had the remnants of Hurricane Ike plow through Region 8. It brought down trees and power lines, and knocked out the power to 200,000 customers. It spawned 5 tornadoes and killed someone. In addition, it caused millions of dollars in damage to crops in Arkansas.

So what about 2011? I always enjoy reading the forecasts from Phil Klotzbach from Colorado State University. I had the opportunity to meet him a couple of years ago and heard him speak about hurricanes. He is a very bright guy. Here's 2011 forecast is below and you can read the entire forecast by clicking here.

So as we move further into the Hurricane Center, know that we will be tracking the storms closely as well!

Have a great night!

Ryan

PS- Next blog will be about what an MCS is...

Summer Drought Starts Tomorrow?

2011-05-27T10:19:00.000-05:00

I have a friend that farms in Leachville. I'm waiting for him to text me to ask if tomorrow is the start of the drought. I may have to answer, yes. We are seeing a pattern change over the next few days. Let's take a look at some upper level maps that show us what the pattern will be over the next week. First, let's look at what we have today:

Right now, a trough of low pressure is causing clouds and showers in the Eastern part of the USA and a disturbance moving through the northern parts of the US has showers and storm. We run the risk of seeing a few storms late today and tonight as the disturbance passes north of us, but the pattern is changing! By Sunday we start seeing the Ridge building in:

A dome of high pressure in Mexico starts nudging NE, which will start to raise our temperatures as the air compresses. Compressed air heats up! On to Memorial Day:

The large area of high pressure is over the Eastern US and keeping a large part of the area dry and hot. In fact, take a look at the temperatures across the country for Memorial Day at 1PM (click to enlarge):

We could easily be in the 90s for several afternoons next week. As we go toward the end of May, look how the ridge is still hanging out:

As we transition to summer, keep in mind that a pop up storm is possible each afternoon somewhere. Here's my point though, the summer pattern starts tomorrow and there is no sign of it letting go for several days.

Stay cool next week!
Ryan

High Risk for Tornadoes

2011-05-25T09:02:00.000-05:00

I do not have a ton of time to blog this morning as we prepare for tornadoes later today. The above image is the the risk from the Storm Prediction Center. Notice the high risk for parts of our viewing area. Let me throw out a few bullet points:

Tornadoes are Likely
The storms will be scattered and many people will stay dry. If you recall, our worst tornado in recent years (Marmaduke) only had 2 storms on radar. Just a thought...
Most likely place to see severe wx will be Mississippi County, Dunklin and Pemiscot counties, but anywhere in Region 8 must be on guard.
Storms will start firing sometime around 3-4 PM, give or take an hour.
Severe threat will hopefully be out of here by 11PM.
If you have friends or family that have a basement, hang out with them tonight.
Staying in a mobile home is not acceptable tonight.

The below image is the probability of tornadoes. While 30% may not seem that high to you... it is. We are also included in the "significant" area which means that strong tornadoes are possible.

Take warnings seriously today. If you lose power, we will be on 104.9, 106.3, and 100.5... Your Jonesboro Radio Group Stations.

Take care and be safe,

Ryan

Severe WX Today and ESPECIALLY Wednesday

2011-05-24T08:34:00.001-05:00

We have our first Hays Backyard BBQ this evening and I hope that the storms do no mess with it too much. The air is pretty unstable and a little disturbance may help spark some storms this evening.

Models are picking up on this "possibility" in the above image, but many of us will still see sunshine. While there is a threat of severe weather today, the greater risk is tomorrow (Wed). As an area of low pressure moves in and passes to our north, the severe weather threat shoot up! Here's the position of the upper-low tomorrow evening and the vorticity associated with it....

The Storm Prediction Center has us in a moderate risk for severe weather tomorrow and it would not surprise me to see us upgraded to a (rare) high risk. Here's the risk so far:

Data continues to show that tomorrow afternoon and evening are the time periods we need to watch closely. I know tomorrow is Oprah's last show, but I'm sure even Oprah would want us to break into regular programming. Here's the data showing where the storms will erupt tomorrow PM:

Stay aware of the weather over the next 48 hours!!! For the latest information, turn to KAIT and we will have info on the bottom of the screen. Also, follow me on twitter @ryanvaughan

Ryan

StormCAST Performance

2011-05-18T15:36:00.002-05:00

Models are guidance to help us forecast and here at KAIT we run our own model in the Storm Center called Super MicroCAST. On air, we call this StormCAST. It's job is to model what the atmosphere may do over the next 48-60 hours. As with any model, it has it's times of being wrong, but I really think it is dialed in these days. We have been making some adjustments to make it as accurate as possible. It's great to see when it picks up the overall trends, but when it nails the timing and location of the rain... it's really awesome.

The above image is what I showed at 5:00 and 6:00 last night. It's what StormCAST thought would be happening at 3:00 PM this afternoon. Below is an image of the Satellite and Radar at 3:00 PM:

I think it is safe to say that StormCAST is doing very well right now. As a side note, we included some slight rain chances for today and tomorrow. A big influence in that decision was based on StormCAST. I'm glad we did that!

Rain chances will really start picking up over the next few days, so get ready. If you have outdoor plans this weekend, make sure you have a plan B.

Have a great week,
Ryan

Proud Of My Kids

2011-05-18T00:26:00.002-05:00

When I started this blog, it was a mix of personal life and weather stuff. For some reason, it has become all weather. I'm not sure if Facebook changed that or what, but I'm going to change things up a bit. My wife is starting a blog, which could be dangerous. While designing her blog, she was scrolling through mine and I noticed it was full of maps and radar images. I realized that I need to shake it up a little, SOOOO here are my kids! Side note: Go back to the first month of the blog in 2004 by clicking here.

At the baseball field tonight, I had a guy tell me that my oldest son was polite and well-behaved. I didn't think much about it until I was driving home and I realized that it is OK to be proud of your kids. Being proud of your kids is different from bragging, but I may start bragging more too!

My wife and I take raising our kids seriously. We have a responsibility to raise them right and so far... so good... I think.

There's not much more to say... I just want everyone to know that I'm proud of my kids! It's Wednesday, so goodnight!

Ryan

Proud Of My Kids

2011-05-18T00:26:00.000-05:00

30s In The Middle of May!

2011-05-16T20:11:00.000-05:00

While I do NOT think anyone will see frost and I do NOT think we will go into the 30s in most of Region 8, there will be some isolated areas that go into the upper 30s over the next two mornings. The above image shows tomorrow morning and notice the 30s dipping into northwest and north-central Arkansas. (Click image to enlarge). With that said, there is a little "50" near Jonesboro. I have 40s in the forecast for Jonesboro, but some areas will be very close to 50. This next map is Wednesday morning:

This map does not look too different from Tuesday morning, but notice the warming to the southwest. That warmer air will overspread Region 8 later this week.

Stay warm over the next few mornings. Shorts for the kids at school is not a good idea until Thursday!

Ryan

Cold Air Funnels

2011-05-14T22:24:00.001-05:00

If you look at the storm reports from today, you will notice that there are a cluster of red dots in Indiana and Ohio indicating tornadoes. While I suppose they are officially considered tornado reports, they are very weak tornadoes called cold air funnels. They do not form under the same conditions as full blown TORNADOES! They are skinny, rope-looking funnels that from a higher base and may not even have a thunderstorm associated with them! Since they form at a higher base, they typically do not reach the ground. In the rare instances they do touch down, they are weak and cause minimal damage. If you are wondering... yes we have had them here in Region 8.

Take a look at the upper-level map from this evening. The upper-low has been parked on the area that had the funnels...

So... why am I going on and on about some cold air funnels in Indiana and Ohio? It's because I think there is a CHANCE we could see some tomorrow. It's a small chance, but a chance. If you notice in the above image, there is some upper-level energy coming through Nebraska. That is heading our way and will be overhead late tomorrow as a better organized upper-low. See the map for tomorrow evening:

This low will help draw down a reinforcing shot of cold air for tomorrow night through Monday. I can't guarantee that we will have cold air funnels, but I can say it is possible. I want to blog about it now, in case people panic tomorrow evening. Once again, in the RARE chance that one touches down, it will be rather weak.

If you are reading this and you are in Alabama (my old stomping grounds), then you run the risk of cold air funnels on Monday.

Have a camera ready, just in case!
Ryan

Cooler Weather Ahead

2011-05-12T08:53:00.000-05:00

It's been warm and muggy! We have highs in the 80s and a moist, SW flow has kept us a little humid. The above map shows what is happening in the upper-levels of the atmosphere. Notice the bullseye in Western Kansas? That is an upper-level low that is heading this way. It will bring some scattered storms and a pattern change that will cool us off.

By tomorrow, that low will be almost overhead. Our rain chances will be higher and the overall flow will be more westerly and northwestly, which will bring cooler weather to Region 8. If you notice, there is another upper-level low in Minnesota that will dive south to bring a reinforcing shot of cool air by the first of the week.

Monday' map shows that second upper-low overhead. We will struggle to make it out of the 60s in this pattern. While I love warm/hot weather, I'm going to enjoy this last little cool down too.

Have a great day. We'll be watching for a few strong storms tomorrow, but nothing too crazy... we hope.

Ryan

Flooding At Payneway From Space

2011-05-11T21:38:00.000-05:00

These images were released by NASA to show the flooding in the Memphis area, but the more interesting part of these images may be what is happening to Payneway, AR. You see, it's flooding in Payneway, but they are on the "dry" side of the levee. Natural assumption would be that the levee broke, but that's not the case. My News Director who grew up in the area, Hatton Weeks, pointed out what is happening. Click the image to enlarge and here is a zoomed in image...

The water typically flows from north to south (green arrows) and stays to the East of the levee, which I marked with a red line. That levee ENDS well south of Payneway, but since the water flows from north to south, that's typically not a problem. However, the Mississippi river is HIGH and the water here on the St. Francis spillway is flowing backwards! So it's going up the OTHER side of the levee and flooding Payneway!

To my knowledge, there has not been a levee break, but the water is rising due to the water flowing in the opposite direction of how the levee system was designed. I marked this flow with red arrows.

If you are wondering what it looks like when it is not flooded, here is an image from this time last year:

So, until the water starts flowing in the right direction, the flooding is going to persist in Payneway. Odd situation that will hopefully end soon.

Big thanks to Hatton for explaining the levee system in that area.

Ryan

Severe Storms Thursday

2011-05-11T00:03:00.003-05:00

The Storm Prediction Center has a good chunk of Arkansas flagged for severe weather on Thursday as seen above. I tend to agree with them. The current postion of the Upper-Low is seen below using SimuAWIPS. I have 500mb Heights (Upper-Level) and Water Vapor Satellite Imagery plotted. It is currently in the southwestern part of the US.

This low will shift East, give us a chance of storms on Thursday and Friday, and try to linger into the weekend to keep us cooler with a slight chance of rain. Below is the position of the low from the latest NAM model run on Saturday AM. Plotted is the 500mb Forecast heights and 500mb vorticity. You can see, the Upper-low is over us on Saturday morning and the stronger Upper-low is north of us:

As this storm system comes in, the air will become very unstable. The graph below using the BUFKIT program shows the instbility peaking on Thursday evening between 7-9PM. The time-stamp goes from right to left:

The image below is still BUFKIT and it shows several indices we look at to determine the threat of severe weather. Without getting too geeky, there are several signs pointing to severe weather on Thursday evening. The main thing is... we should be very unstable! I tweeted this earlier, but red bars are not good. :)

We'll watch it closely! I fully expect to see severe storms, I'm just hoping for no tornadoes and no more than a half inch of rain! I think the greatest risk will be large hail, but gusty winds and tornadoes are possible.

Stay tuned,

Ryan

The Great Flood of 2011

2011-05-09T09:27:00.000-05:00

The title of this blog post may seem a little dramatic, but this flood will be studied, written about, and taught in history classes for decades. It's one of the worst floods to hit the Midsouth, getting very close to the Great Flood of 1937. The impact can be seen from Space. These images were taken by the MODIS Rapid Response Team in conjunction with NASA. This first image is from May of LAST year, 2010. Click the image to enlarge. Try to find the Mississippi River, Black River, White River... How about the Cache River? St. Francis? That's a tougher task!

Now, let's look at the current situation. Can you find the Cache River now? Black, White, Mississippi Rivers are easy to spot! What bout the Mississippi River at Birds Point Levee? It is like the Midsouth's new Great Lake! Click this image to enlarge too...

This flood is massive, but will end soon. The rivers in many spot have crested and are falling slowly. The Mississippi River at Memphis should start falling this weekend, but it will be slow. Give it a month and we'll all want rain again, but for now... the sunshine is nice.

Personal Note: I may head over to Memphis this week to witness the flooding first hand. I'm not sure we'll ever see it this bad again. You never know.

Ryan

Craighead County Tornado Rated EF2

2011-05-04T17:38:00.001-05:00

The above image is the estimated track of the tornado/funnel that went over Craighead county last week based on the damage surveys from the National Weather Service. (Click images to enlarge) The damage survey has been completed and I've mapped it out on Google Earth. It appears that the tornado touched down 4 times (not counting open fields). The first time it touched down and caused damage according to the survey from the National Weather Service was at 2:56 PM. This was on Highway 1 south of Jonesboro and caused EF 0 damage with peak winds at 75 mph. This is when the JPD officer first spotted it. Here's the survey:

..PRELIMINARY EF-0 TORNADO IN CRAIGHEAD CO. ARKANSAS...
* COUNTIES: CRAIGHEAD COUNTY ARKANSAS.
* LOCATION: 5 MILES SOUTH OF JONESBORO ARKANSAS ON EITHER SIDE OF
STATE HIGHWAY ONE.
* TIME: 256 PM ON WEDNESDAY APRIL 27 2011
* BEGINNING POINT: 35.73809, -90.69490
* ENDING POINT: 35.73989, -90.69076
* RATING: EF-0
* ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 75 MPH
* PATH LENGTH: 0.3 MILES
* MAXIMUM WIDTH: 50 YARDS
* FATALITIES: 0
* INJURIES: 0
* SUMMARY OF DAMAGES: PARTIAL ROOF DAMAGE TO BUSINESS OFFICE
BUILDING AND TWO STORAGE GARAGE DOORS BLOWN IN. OTHER DAMAGE
INCLUDED ONE BLOWN WINDOW FROM A BUSINESS AND A PARTIALLY DOWNED
CHAIN LINK FENCE

The storm may have pulled up and then touched down just north of Bay. Thanks to the JPD officer, we knew the tornado was a threat at this point. If you missed my last blog post about this tornado, click here. The damage in Bay, AR occurred around 3:01 PM and it was the most extensive of this path and was rated EF2 with peak winds at 115 mph. I know we received one report of winds clocked at 113 mph from an aviation company to validate that rating. Here's the survey of this point from the National Weather Service:

PRELIMINARY EF-2 TORNADO IN CRAIGHEAD CO. ARKANSAS...
* COUNTIES: CRAIGHEAD CO. ARKANSAS
* LOCATION: BAY ARKANSAS ALONG HIGHWAY 158 TO BAY ARKANSAS NEAR
HIGHWAY 63.
* TIME: 301 PM ON WEDNESDAY APRIL 27 2011
* BEGINNING POINT: 35.79927, -90.59313
* ENDING POINT: 35.76499, -90.58368
* RATING: EF-2
* ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 115 MPH
* PATH LENGTH: 0.7 MILES
* MAXIMUM WIDTH: 200 YARDS
* FATALITIES: 0
* INJURIES: 0
* SUMMARY OF DAMAGES: LIFTED CARPORT AWNING AND OTHER LIGHT DEBRIS
FROM THE BAY ARKANSAS AIRPORT.

The storm continued NW and it appears that it pulled up again. The next damage point was West of Lake City at 3:08 PM. The tornado damage here was rated EF1, with maximum winds at 90 mph. Here's the survey report of that damage:

...PRELIMINARY EF-1 TORNADO IN CRAIGHEAD CO. ARKANSAS...
* COUNTIES: CRAIGHEAD COUNTY ARKANSAS.
* LOCATION: 2 MILES SOUTH OF BOWMAN ARKANSAS ALONG COUNTY ROAD
683...TO STATE HIGHWAY 18 IN BOWMAN ARKANSAS.
* TIME: 308 PM ON WEDNESDAY APRIL 27 2011
* BEGINNING POINT: 35.80246, -90.50739
* ENDING POINT: 35.82255, -90.49305
* RATING: EF-1
* ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 90 MPH
* PATH LENGTH: 1.6 MILES
* MAXIMUM WIDTH: 250 YARDS
* FATALITIES: 0
* INJURIES: 0
* SUMMARY OF DAMAGES: DAMAGE TO FIVE HOMES AND ONE BUSINESS GARAGE.
MAINLY ROOF DAMAGE TO THREE MANUFACTURED HOMES...TWO BRICK HOMES AND
ONE BUSINESS GARAGE. OTHER DAMAGE INCLUDED A DESTROYED STORAGE
SHED...CHAIN LINK FENCE AND A FEW TREE LIMBS SNAPPED OFF.

At this point, there were several eyes on this storm and we had reports of it going up and down and radar showed the storm weakening. The last damage survey point was near Highway 18 between Black Oak and Monette. This survey also shows it was weakening and corresponds well with the report of it pulling up right on Hwy 18. Here's the final damage point from the National Weather Service. A rating of EF0 with peak winds at 75 mph.

You can click any of the images to enlarge.

One of the best things about this survey is that we had 0 injuries and 0 fatalities. I credit much of that to the JPD officer that spotted it when it first touched down south of Jonesboro. Ground reports are critical. Radar is great, but ground reports are so much better. The credible report from the officer was great, but we did not know about the report in the Storm Center until 3-4 minutes later. We are meeting with the E911 center tomorrow to establish better communication in the future. I'll keep you posted on that.

Have a great day!
Ryan

PS- As some of you know, my wife has been in the hospital battling some respiratory issues. She's out and getting better. I'll be back to work tomorrow. Big thanks the the Poplar Bluff ER staff and the staff at AMMC!

Record Flooding

2011-05-02T11:39:00.000-05:00

I can't cover this record flooding on my blog any better than it is being covered on our website at www.kait8.com Extensive information there.

My wife that is not feeling too well right now, so I'm out of the mix for today (at least). Hopefully she gets to feeling well soon. In the meantime, I'm going to be disconnected from weasther and will be at the hospital or running the boys around. Nothing too serious and she is not in pain. Many people have it far worse than us. Thanks for your prayers though.

Ryan

Always Room For Improvement

2011-04-28T15:30:00.000-05:00

Yesterday we were on-air for a storm that had a Severe Thunderstorm Warning in Craighead County. Being wall-to-wall for a storm before it has a tornado warning is typically outside of our policy, but we felt the threat for hail was high enough that we needed to break into the afternoon soap operas to warn people of this strong storm. When we initially broke in at 2:45, there was no rotation on radar and no reports sent to us regarding rotation. We were showing golf ball size hail indications AND we had pictures/reports of the large hail as it moved through SW Craighead County. We only know what radar is showing and what spotters are relaying to us at the time. If nobody passes along the information to us, we can't see from the walls of a studio in North Jonesboro.

At 2:54, we get our first report that the sirens are blowing in Jonesboro. KAIT does not air the sirens and we do not know why they are airing until someone relays that information to us. Some cities blow their sirens only when a tornado warning is issued, some blow them when they see a funnel or tornado, and some blow them for any severe storm that moves into the area. We had no idea why they were blowing. So, as with all circumstances, there are lessons that can be learned. Did everything go 100% right during this storm? No. Here's what could be better:

We need constant communication with the E911 center. I hope to have that soon. We are meeting with E911 Director Jeff Presley next week to address this challenge. We have constant communication with the National Weather Service, but there was no tornado warning at the time it touched down. If we had constant communication, we would have instantly had the report from the Jonesboro police officer that first spotted the tornado. Radar is great, but nothing beats human eyeballs.

We need to never discount the siren. I'll take that blame on that. There was no tornado warning from NWS, no reports (sent to us), or substantial radar data to support a tornado. We had no reason to believe there was a tornado at the time. From now on, if there is a siren, we are to assume it is a tornado and trust the E911 center that it is a valid threat. They have a great E911 director, Jeff Presley, and we are going to make sure that we have point #1 covered in the future.

Take Severe Thunderstorm warnings seriously. We were already on-air for the storm because it had dangerous winds and large hail, but everyone needs to realize that if a storm is that strong, it can put down a tornado. It's never impossible.

With all of that said, I do not want to be misquoted from our coverage. I have had 4-5 people complain about us not knowing why the sirens were blowing. If nobody tells me the storm report, I have no way of knowing. Here's a clip showing our coverage from the time I heard of the sirens blowing to when we got the report and when the latest radar scan picked up on the rotation. Notice, I mentioned that they MAY have blown the sirens to get people in from the severe hail, but I still did not know why. It was about 3-4 minutes of not knowing of the tornado report.With that said... we were tracking the tornado prior to an official tornado warning. Here's the clip:

With limited information, we did the best we could. I'm not completely satisfied, but we're going to learn from yesterday's event, meet with city officials, and resolve the problem to make sure everyone is in constant communication in the future. I always feel there is room for improvement and yesterday was an example of how we can spot a communication breakdown and resolve the problem.

I apologize for that 3-4 minutes that the sirens sounded in which we did not have that report. We will all work to improve that communication breakdown. I hope that you will still depend on the Region 8 Storm TEAM in the future. I just praise God that nobody was seriously hurt or killed. As I type this, the latest death toll from the outbreak across the south sits at 269. Pray for those in the hard hit areas and praise God that we were not hit as hard.

Have a good day,
Ryan

Craighead County Tornado

2011-04-28T00:29:00.000-05:00

I'm waiting to get some data from the National Climatic Data Center, but in the meantime, here's the storm that had a tornado with it in Craghead County around 3:00 PM today. The above image is the storm from a county wide view. You can see the Severe Thunderstorm Warning it had with the yellow box around it. We were already on air for this storm for 10-15 minutes at this time. We had initially cut in because of the threat of large hail at the same time schools were dismissing for the day. This next image is zoomed in at street-level:

At this point, a tornado was on the ground. By now, you have likely seen the video. In the above image, the tornado was causing damage near "Pump It Up" on Highway 1... Fast forward 8 minutes:

We were still on the air as it came through Bay. We still had a visual on the tornado as it crossed Highway 63, near 463.This next image is from 3:14:

At 3:14, the tornado had caused damage in Lake City. At some point between Lake City and Monette, it pulled up and the storm weakened.

Here's our coverage of the severe weather when we first started to think that we may have a tornado. Can you tell that I'm sick of the 4th day of severe weather?

As I mentioned, I'm waiting to get some data from the NCDC and I'll post some velocity images.

Have a great night!
Ryan

Severe Threat Again Today

2011-04-27T09:15:00.000-05:00

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be issued soon for Region 8 as the upper-level energy passes overhead. Now, the tornado threat may be low, but we still need to take severe thunderstorms seriously. I have learned within the last hour that we had a fatality in Sharp County last night. This may have been caused by straight-line winds. The NWS will be surveying the damage soon to determine what happened. My point is... do not let your guard down today either. Here's the position of the upper-level energy now:

Warnings have already been issued in parts of NW AR as I type this at 9:15. This "vorticity" max will move east with the trough and spread the threat of hail producing storms East as well. Here's the position later this afternoon:

As this energy pushes East, the threat of severe weather will END.

NO SEVERE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. Amen?

I'm signing off to go program weather radios at Barton's in Paragould. Watch my Twitter feed on this page or at @ryanvaughan for updates!

Ryan

Vilonia Radar Images

2011-04-26T10:15:00.000-05:00

I think most of you can see the hook in the storm as the tornado was coming into Vilonia. Click the image to enlarge. This was a massive tornado and at this point, we had confirmation that it was on the ground doing damage. In fact, look at the purple areas in the "ball" of the hook. That is debris from the tornado. Since this was so close to the radar site, the angle of the radar beam was about 700 feet above the ground. Seeing a debris signature from storms far away from a radar site is almost impossible. The void spot north of that ball is the inflow around the counter-clockwise circulation of the tornado. Notice how it wraps over and around the circulation, forming the hook signature. This next image is what I tweeted before it hit Vilonia...

This is the wind velocity image. The bright reds are winds moving away from the Little Rock radar site. The bright greens are winds moving toward the radar site. Can you see the rotation? Here's the next radar image before it hit Vilonia...

Click the radar image and look at it closely. Look how tight the rotation is on radar. Very scary image to see when covering the storms on air. This was one county outside of our viewing area. Of course, we went on as it moved NE into White County. Big thanks to Robert Rowland in White County for his calm and accurate reports of the storm as it passed through. We've got some great wx watchers in Region 8!

I'm heading out to run some non weather related errands and then back in studio for more severe weather and flooding tonight. Stay tuned!

Ryan

More on Tuesday

2011-04-26T00:42:00.000-05:00

Most data suggests that we are going to be tracking severe storms again tomorrow. Timing and position varies among different datasets, but I feel pretty confident in more watches and warnings to be issued. The above image shows storms erupting between 4-7PM within some unstable air. These storms would likely be severe.

Between 7PM and 10PM, these storms move NE.Tornado warnings will be possible again and more heavy rain will aggravate the flooding problems.

I'm tired and I don't feel like posting much more, so GOOD NIGHT!

Ryan

Easter Morning Update

2011-04-24T08:08:00.000-05:00

We have had some heavy rain fall across parts of Region 8!Look at the radar estimates so far:

If you notice, over 5" of rain has fallen in parts of the area! As if that were not bad enough, we have MORE rain coming. In fact, some of the heaviest rain will come over the next 3 days. I have a HUGE concern about the area rivers! Some places may see some flooding that ranks in the Top 5. While we run the risk of severe storms with tornadoes, please take the flooding threat seriously.

High resolution model data suggest heavy storms again this evening. Some of these storms will be severe and as you see in the image above, they could drop over 3" of rain. It gets even worse tonight...

More rain over the same areas! It may shift a little farther south, but still a huge impact. While all of this is going on, some parts of Region 8, like Cross and Mississippi Counties are missing most of this rain. The rivers across all of Region 8 will be on the rise regardless of how much rain any particular place received.

Be safe and stay tuned into the Region 8 StormTEAM over the next few days.

Ryan

TBSS Indicates Large Hail

2011-04-24T07:35:00.000-05:00

Every now and then, a interesting phenomenon occurs on radar when a storm has large hail. It's called a Three-Body Scattered Spike.In the above image, can you spot the "spike" of blue shooting out from the NW part of the storm from last Tuesday? That is not a line of light rain, but rather a line created from the returns of large hail. As the radar beams goes out, it hits the precipitation, and comes back. The time or duration indicates how far the precipitation is from the radar.

At times, large hail sends the signal from radar in all kinds of directions. The reason for the spike is because the radar "thinks" the rain is farther away because it took the signal longer to get back to the radar dome. Therefore it thinks the rain is farther away.

So instead of the signal hitting the precipitation and going back to the radar, it hits the hail, reflects to the ground, reflects back to the hail, and THEN back to the radar. Therefore the "spike" appears. We saw this a few times last Tuesday night. (explanation image from several online sources)

I'm heading to Church! Have a great day as we celebrate the Resurrection!

Ryan

Wind Damage in Mississippi County

2011-04-22T00:09:00.000-05:00

Here's the radar image at 10:33 PM on Tuesday night as severe storms started to slam into parts of Mississippi County. There were tornado warnings and we were on the air, but straight-line winds ended up being the greatest threat. As in the previous blog post, let's look at the velocity data. This radar image is from 10:42 PM. Click to enlarge:

This image shows HIGH winds from Keiser to Marie, Bassett,and Joiner. The northern edge of this blast of air is in the Osceola area. Much like the previous blog post, we have some aliasing issues in the above radar image. Do you see the bright reds inside the bright green? That's another aliasing issue. Those bright red areas near Dyes and Tyronza can be assumed to be bright green. If you notice, the worst of it is going into Keiser and Osceola. This matches up well with the damage we have been seeing in that area.

In addition to the straight line winds, look at the MO bootheel. We had some funnel cloud reports near Holland and Cooter at this time.

I would type more, but I'm tired and I'm going to sleep!

Ryan

First Rotation from Bono to Paragould

2011-04-21T09:21:00.000-05:00

A tornado warning was issued shortly before 9:00 pm on Tuesday Night for some rotation near Bono. I am going back through some radar data to see what was happening in the atmosphere during this event. The above radar image is from 9:06. It's the "Reflectivity" data or the "where it is raining" mode. While this is great, the "what are the winds doing" mode is more important at this point. This is known as velocity mode. Here is the velocity data at the same time as the above image:

I have circled the area that prompted the warning. While this was seen on radar, we had a corresponding report of a funnel cloud from a storm spotter, Let's go over a few things that will be needed for this blog and for the next blog post. When we show this to you on air, we talk about seeing "reds and greens" close together, but it much more than that. Sure, the greens show the winds "TOWARD" the radar site and the reds show winds "AWAY" from the radar site. But there are some things to watch out for! For example, in the above image, that bright shade of red in that circle is not wind going away from the radar. That is a velocity aliasing problem. It should be bright green, but the wind speeds are exceeding the given scale for the program, so when you see bright colors in the middle of the opposite colors, just assume it is also bright green. This is something we constantly need to watch for when covering severe storms. The rotation is just NE of that bright red.... or upper-right hand corner of that circle. This is the rotation when it was around the Lorado/Finch area. We had some tree damage in this region.

At 9:11, we see that rotation coming into SW Paragould. Notice, we do not have an aliasing problem in this radar image (click to enlarge). While radar showed some rotation, the damage that occurred at GCT was from straight-line winds. It was extensive, but it was caused from a downdraft in this storm. If you notice, the rotation went south of GCT. I surveyed the damage and so did the NWS and we both concluded it was straight line wind damage.

Later today, I'm going to blog about the storm that caused damage in Craighead and Mississippi County.The winds were FIERCE in that storm! I'll show the radar images in my next blog post.

I'm going shopping and out to lunch with my wife. Have a great day!

Ryan

Tornado Threat, This Evening

2011-04-19T07:48:00.000-05:00

There is a risk of tornadoes tonight, but the big question will be if storms form ahead of the main squall line. If they do, we need to watch them closely! Here's StormCAST and it's tornado potential at 4PM:

Fast forward to 9PM and the threat goes up:

I think StormCAST is showing this increase with the squall line it self, but I'm worried about the storms just ahead of the squall line. We'll watch it unfold tonight and will keep up posted on the latest watches and warnings. Stay tuned to my Twitter feed at @ryanvaughan

Ryan

11:15 AM Update

2011-04-15T11:12:00.000-05:00

Dry air coming in behind the front to the west and Satellite shows that storm still appear possible once we get a little more sunshine and once the pool of colder air aloft movies in from the upper-low. If these storms fire, we should start to see them flare up before 1PM. We're tracking it!

Ryan

9:30 AM Update

2011-04-15T09:30:00.000-05:00

Sad to hear that we had some people die in Arkansas last night int he storms, especially hearing about the kids. Let's not let our guard down just yet. The image below show radar and satellite, WRF data, and RUC data. The data continues to show that we are going to see redevelopment in NE Arkansas and SE MO between NOW and 1PM:

We're going to be watching it closely and I'll be posting updates on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter at @ryanvaughan

Take care,
Ryan

2:30 AM Update

2011-04-15T02:33:00.000-05:00

J-Lo takes over the StormCenter shortly and I'm going home to sleep! I still think we are going to see more storms sometime from mid-morning to the lunch hour. Here are three models and notice all three shows an increase in CAPE or instability.

This would be sometime between mid morning and lunchtime. Now, while we may be unstable... we may be capped enough to suppress storms. See next image...

Once again, three models. Some show the storms firing before the front clears the river, others show the storms firing East of the river. We're going to be on standby, just in case.

On that note, I'm going home to sleep and J-Lo is taking over.

Take care,
Ryan

Midnight Update

2011-04-15T00:09:00.000-05:00

Here's a quick update on tonight and tomorrow's weather. As I type this, the storms are becoming a squall line west of us. There is a large swath of rain coming our way, but I think the tornado threat is going down fast. The upper-left corner shows model data in the morning and it looks stormy. The lower-left image is the SPC Severe WX outlook and it shows that the greatest risk will be SE of us.

I'm going to take a quick 1 hour nap before the storms get too close.... I hope. J-Lo will be here at 2AM to take over the Storm Center. I'll be back around 9AM.

Stay tuned to my Twitter Account for frequent updates.

Take care,
Ryan

Thursday Night Into Friday Morning

2011-04-13T14:49:00.000-05:00

First off, most of Thursday will be dry. The storms are expected Thursday night into Friday. While the threat for severe weather is high in parts of Oklahoma and Western AR tomorrow evening, the risk greatly drops off as the night goes on! Here's is the Tornado Potential as indicated by our in-house computer model for tomorrow evening:

Notice that the greatest risk is in Oklahoma at 6PM tomorrow evening. If I were chasing tomorrow, I would be setup about 25 miles East of Tulsa. There will be a lot of chasers in that area tomorrow evening! As the storms move East, they will lose their daytime heating. We will still see thunderstorms, BUT the tornado threat should go down. Here's the tornado potential for 1AM on Friday according to StormCAST:

Big difference, huh? As I said, storms are still likely Thursday Night into Friday morning, but we're hoping they have more bark than bite! As the storms move East of us, they will intensify AGAIN in TN, MS, and AL on Friday.

Stay tuned for any changes!
Ryan

PS- For those wondering, the above product is the EHI product. It combines the "Spin" and "Instability" to come up with the tornado risk.

Severe Weather Possible Tonight

2011-04-10T17:11:00.000-05:00

Quick blog before I head to Church. I fully expect to see storms tonight and/or tomorrow morning. The greatest risk for severe weather is north of us. As I type this, there are tornado warnings in Wisconsin on some NASTY looking storms. Storms will fire along the cold front tonight southward from where the storms are now. This will form a line that will come across Region 8. Timing is a little questionable, but it will at least be after 2AM for most of us... if not after daybreak.

I'm heading out to Church. I may blog more about it later. In the meantime, watch Justin in a few minutes and again at 10 for the latest.

Take care,
Ryan

Storms Tonight? Maybe!

2011-04-08T18:38:00.000-05:00

This is a quick blog post. We have a SLIGHT risk in the northern part of Region 8 tonight for severe storms. Why you ask? Well, if you click the above image to enlarge, you will see that there is a Tornado Watch in OK and KS and some data suggests that these storms will move into Southern MO and maybe even Northern AR. We'll watch it closely and I'll have a LIVE update at 10:00 on Region 8 News. See yah then!

Ryan

Why Was It Windy Today?

2011-04-06T21:37:00.000-05:00

Here's a side-by-side comparison of the winds at 3PM (left) and the winds at 9PM (right). The blue contours indicate the spots that had winds 20-30 mph and that included us at 3PM! The frame on the right is the 9PM winds and notice the lack of blue gradients. SO, why was it windy this morning and why have the winds eased back this evening? Take a look at the side-by-side comparison of the surface pressure (click either image to enlarge):

The reason it was windy today was due to the pressure gradient OR the difference of pressure over a given distance.The lines above are lines of equal pressure or isobars. The closer they are together, the greater the change in pressure is over that area. So, look at Region 8. At 3PM, we had almost 4 isobars over our area. Now look at 9PM. We only have 2 isobars over the Midsouth, indicating that the pressure gradient is not as high. When the isobars are tightly compacted, it is windy. I call it the Shar Pei effect because it looks like wrinkles over us when it is windy. Get it?

Anywho... Enjoy the break from the wind right now. Have a great night.
Ryan

The Week Ahead

2011-04-04T21:28:00.002-05:00

We're watching a couple of things in the week ahead. First off, it's not going to be chilly long. 70s return by Wednesday. As far as rain/storms are concerned, we have a couple of disturbances we are watching. In the above image (click to enlarge), it shows Thursday evening. In the upper-left frame, you see the upper-level disturbance that will be passing through. That's the bright colors! ;) The lower-left frame shows the warm, juicy dewpoints they may aid in a couple of storms. Rain chances will be low, but still possible. The big window shows the surface low coming into Kansas and a decent southerly flow and some precip noted.

This next image is Sunday evening:

Notice on Sunday, the upper-level disturbance is stronger. Also, notice the dewpoints map shows a stout dry punch into the state. The surface low is shown to our north in the big frame with some precipitation noted again.

So in summary, I think we'll see some storms this week, but not a ton of rain. Temperatures will warm through the week, with some 80s by the weekend.

Have a great week!

Ryan

Nowcast, 10:00 AM Monday

2011-04-04T10:06:00.000-05:00

Here's a quick update. We have had a few wind damage reports from Sharp County, some hail reports throughout, and several reports of blinding rainfall. Overall, we are doing pretty good though.

In the above image (click to enlarge), we have temps and winds in the big window. I think you can easily spot the cold front. Notice how the winds shift around and much colder air moves in!

The lower-leftt window shows the strongest storms in Region 8 at 10AM. Those storms will be in TN and KY within 30 minutes.

And finally, the upper-left window shows the temperature drop. To decode, look at the upper-left number... that's the temperature of each station.

I'm still concerned about TN and MS.

Watching,
Ryan

Nowcast, 7:45 AM Monday

2011-04-04T07:48:00.001-05:00

*Breaking*: Damage reports coming in from Sharp County. Trees and Powerlines down, 7:55*

Click the image to enlarge. As I type this, strong storms are moving through parts of Region 8. We have Severe TS warnings from in the areas outlined in yellow. The larger map shows the big picture. A broken line of storms is moving East. As the day goes on, we are likely to see these storms get strong and that is what parts of TN, MS, and AL are in a moderate risk zone as outlined with a red line.

As I type this, we are starting to get a look at visible satellite, which can only be used in daylight. Because thunderstorms build up high, we can see the tops of the storms and the shadows they are casting on surrounding clouds. That will never get old to me... :)

Sarah is tracking the storms the storms this morning and I'm heading to work shortly.

Take care,
Ryan

Timing of Monday's Front

2011-04-03T23:24:00.000-05:00

I've been meaning to blog about tomorrow, but I've been enjoying my birthday. I just walked in from the fire pit where a friend and I were solving the problems of the world. Anywho, let's chat about tomorrow. This first graphic is an attempt to nail down the timing of the squall line. Click to enlarge after reading...

I'm pretty confident that the line of storms will pass through Region 8 by 1PM or at least through the Jonesboro/Paragould area. And the rest of Region 8 shortly after... The three windows are three different model's precip output. This timing is good because I am hoping we get the front through here before we really see the heating that could take place during the daytime hours. Points eastward may not be so fortunate and run a higher risk of severe weather. I expect us to have some brief heavy rain, some strong winds, but hopefully a low tornado threat. We'll watch it! What about later in the day? Next graphic....

You can click the above image to enlarge. These three images are for 7PM tomorrow. Severe storms from KY to TN, to MS and AL are likely during the afternoon and evening hours. Here in Region 8, the upper left graphic shows the north winds across the Region. That's the cold air advection behind the cold front. The lower left graphic shows the temperatures at 7PM. Notice that the cooler air will be with us as the storms rumble to our East. We should see temperatures around 50 after the front clears.

So, in summary.... I expect a squall line to enter Region around 7-9AM. It should move through Jonesboro/Paragould between 10AM-1PM. And it should cross the river intoTN between 1PM-3PM.

Let's see how those times play out tomorrow. Points eastward should really be prepared. TN, AL, MS, KY.

That is all. Bring on the week!
Ryan

What About Monday?

2011-04-01T23:28:00.000-05:00

For the past couple of days, we have been mentioning the chance of severe weather for Monday. The data has shifted a little and many questions still remain. I fully expect to see watches and warnings issued, but I'm just not 100% sold on an all-out outbreak. The main reason we may miss out on an outbreak (which is good thing) is the timing of the system and the position of the low when it forms.

What's working toward the outbreak is the amount of instability, even at daybreak on Monday. Typically, we see the air much more stable in the morning hours, but not on Monday according to the GFS below. It has the CAPE (instability) over 1200 for Jonesboro, which is plenty for tornadic storms within the sheared environment that we will have...

Notice that by lunch, we still have very unstable air across Region 8, but it's even worse in Northern Mississippi. Someone is going to see some nasty weather on Monday! We'll have to watch and see who gets the worst.

As I mentioned, there are still some questions and we are still 60 hours out. We'll know more tomorrow, so be sure to watch J-Lo at 6:00 and 10:00 on Saturday. I'll also try to blog more...

Stay tuned!

Ryan

Old Stomping Grounds

2011-03-25T22:25:00.002-05:00

My oldest son and I went Geocaching today along a Greenway in Nashville. One of the Greenways, pictured here, goes along Mill Creek and was a spot the I frequently hung out as a kid and teenager. Mill creek was where I caught crawfish when I was young and where I went off-roading as a teenager. While my son and I walked, I told him about these memories and how nice they have made the area! I hope the people here appreciate these paved trails to walk and ride bikes on... they are very nice!

Blogging from my phone,
Ryan

Published with Blogger-droid v1.6.7

Look! Cold Front!

2011-03-23T12:59:00.000-05:00

The above image (click to enlarge) shows the visible satellite and dewpoints. The line of clouds is the cold front! If you see a brief increase in clouds, it may be the cold front moving overhead!

Something that is VERY noticeable on this map is the dewpoint. The Dewpoints in NW Region 8 are in the 30s and they are in the 60s for Eastern Region 8. Get ready for some drier and cooler air!

I'm on vacation, but I was looking over some data and I thought this image was cool...now... back to my yard work! Our Spring has been filled with VBX (Spring Break VBS), Football Camp, and some much needed time with my family! I hope you guys are having a great Spring Break, too!

Ryan

Office Wall

2011-03-13T21:21:00.001-05:00

Someone told me a year or so back to decorate your office with things from your kids. On my desk, you will find things that they have made me and pictures. On the wall behind my desk, you will find pictures that they've colored. It's fun to show off the things that they do, but it also puts me in a good mood when I get to work! (See picture above) Beyond that... is questionable, but at least I start on a good note! LOL

So, let me pass along this to you too... Decorate your office with kid stuff!

Have a good week!
Ryan

Published with Blogger-droid v1.6.7

Earthquake, Tsunami, and Region 8

2011-03-11T22:26:00.000-06:00

The above animation shows the far reaching impact of the Tsunami that followed the 8.9 magnitude earthquake that hit near Japan. When I got home last night, I settled into my recliner and clicked on the TV to chill out for the night. Within minutes, my phone showed the alert on Twitter of the major Earthquake. At the time, it had been ruled a 7. something. I forget now, but even at that magnitude, I knew it was huge.

I turned on the big three "24 hour news channels" and realized that MSNBC is no longer a "24 hour" news channel. That's a subject for another time, but they are a pathetic news organization that are fortunate enough to have some good people working for them. Anywho, CNN and Fox were quickly on air.

As I watched the footage on CNN, it was absolutely shocking to watch it unfold on LIVE TV. The fires, the wave, the cars being swept away, the chopper video of the Tsunami swallowing up the land. All of it was unreal. I had a sick, nauseous feeling. I was the only one awake in the house and felt the need to speak to someone. Honestly, it was overwhelming. If you can watch something like that and not be affected, you have something wrong with you. I stopped watching and prayed. Prayed for the people of Japan. Prayed for the government. Prayed for the future. And prayed for mercy on those being impacted. This was a huge, huge event in the history of Earth.

That's my personal story of how things unfolded last night. It's still shocking to watch the video. I can't imagine something like that happening in the US, but it could. The Earth is SO LARGE, yet SO SMALL. Even though the Earthquake was on the other side of the EARTH, it was detected in Region 8. It happened at 11:46 PM our time and the helicorders here in NEA detected it shortly before midnight. It took less than 15 minutes to be detected HERE in NE Arkansas! See it for yourself. Here are two helicorder graphs from Gosnell, AR. I randomly chose Gosnell, but it was detected on ALL Helicorders in the Midsouth. Here's yesterday's graph first. It ends at midnight last night:

Notice that it is relatively quiet, BUT look at the last few minutes of the day! This reads left-to-right, top-to-bottom, like a book. Do you see the last few minutes? Click the image to enlarge. NOW, look at the next graph that started at midnight:

WOW, that was measured HERE in REGION 8! Now, we did not FEEL the Earthquake, but we detected it! It's a small world people....

That's all I have tonight. I believe I'm going to start posting more things that are not weather-related on the blog. If you look at the early days of my blog (back to 2004), I really talked about more things outside of the realm of weather. I may start again. I'm heading to my nieces birthday party tomorrow! I'm really looking forward to seeing my 3 nieces. They are hilarious.

Have a great weekend!

Ryan

Stormy Tuesday

2011-03-08T00:20:00.000-06:00

We know that it's going to rain today (Tuesday) and we know there will be thunder and lightning. There are still some questions on how strong the storms will be across the state. The above image is showing the instability according to the GFS model. Notice, the highest CAPE stays south, with CAPE nearing 500 in parts of Region 8. If this played out, we would see rain , but not much severe weather. Another model shows more instability. See:

Do you see the yellows moving more north? This would yield some stronger storms. I would write more, but I'm tired and I'm falling asleep.

We're going to watch the closely, but in the meantime. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

The Shaking Has Stopped?

2011-03-04T22:06:00.000-06:00

Click the above image to enlarge. The graph on the left is before the Arkansas Oil and Gas Commission shut down two Natural Gas Disposal Wells and the graph on the right is today.

I'm not saying this is a direct correlation. I'm just showing you the data. I'm sure more studies will take place to see what is happening. Let's not jump the gun just yet. More investigation is needed.

We'll continue to watch it.
Ryan

Strongest Earthquake in 35 Years

2011-02-28T14:16:00.001-06:00

Last night, a 4.7 magnitude Earthquake hit the central part of Arkansas. It was the strongest earthquake since 1976, when a 5.0 struck near Marked Tree (see above map). Many people across Region 8 felt the Earthquake, including my family. Here's a heliocorder from Gosnell, AR showing the Earthquake. I'm sure you can see where it is on this graph:

The Earthquake in 1976 and the Earthquake last night are not the same though. The Earthquake in 1976 was long the New Madrid Fault. The Earthquake last night... well, I'm not sure what that is about. If you click here, you can see how many Earthquakes we have had in northern Faulkner County recently and you can see every Arkansas earthquake in history. I have some theories on why there have been so many Earthquakes in Central AR, but there's not enough scientific evidence to even mention it on the blog. Something is different than in years past though....

Did you feel it? What are your thoughts? Feel free to comment!
Ryan

Waiting

2011-02-27T18:51:00.000-06:00

Within the past hour, we had one storm with lightning in Randolph County and earlier a storm had a tornado warning in TN. Besides that, it is quiet and we are waiting. The atmosphere is juiced up and ready, but we need a "push" to get the storms firing. I would hope that it does not come, but I doubt it.

In the above image, I have radar, dewpoints, and the current TORH index which is an experimental index to mark an environment conducive for tornadoes. Dewpoints are in the 60s and that's plenty of juice in the atmosphere. You probably felt that when you stepped outside. We're just waiting now....

There is a tornado ON THE GROUND as I type this blog entry on the Kansas and Oklahoma line. Those storms are from the same storm moving into Region 8 tonight.

Let's prepare, but hope for the best. Who knows, we may not even break into the Oscars Programming tonight. We'll see.

Ryan

Storms This Evening

2011-02-27T07:44:00.001-06:00

The area in red is the "moderate" risk from SPC. The model shown is similar to what Justin showed last night on StormCAST. The coverage is not widespread. The rain would not last long, BUT it shows a couple of storms shortly after 8PM tonight that could easily be strong or tornadic.

If you look at radar this evening and you do not see anything, do NOT let your guard down. It would not surprise me to see 1-2 cells form rapidly somewhere in the Midsouth and quickly become severe.

More storms will come later in the night... after midnight toward morning.

We'll be watching it closely!

Off to Church!
Ryan

Storms Tomorrow Night

2011-02-26T09:01:00.003-06:00

There's a big upper-low causing problems in LA for the Academy Awards and that upper-level system is heading east! Guess what that means? Yep, storms for us. Here's a look at Sunday evening. I'm showing isobars and simulated radar:

Notice that there is not much out there at this time according to this model. Remember, this is a model and not EXACTLY what will happen. I believe there is a chance for us to have a couple of renegade storms at this time somewhere in the Midsouth. The air is going to be pretty unstable. Take a look at the exact same time period and the same model and look at the CAPE (blues/yellows), which is a measure of the energy to fuel storms:

So, while we will not see a huge area of coverage, any storms that do form will need to be watched closely. As we go deeper into the night and into the weeee hours of the morning, the front will pass through providing more storms and some of them could be severe:

All threats of storms should be out of Region 8 no later than 9AM on MONDAY, if not well before.

I have heard some say that this will be similar to Thursday night and I don't agree for Region 8. We will not see 3-7" rainfall totals and the coverage will not be extensive as Thursday, but I actually think some of the storms could be stronger. One thing that will limit the strength of the storms will be that they are coming in without daytime heating. BUT, if they do get going... people will be asleep. Not good.

Well watch it!
Ryan

Cold Now, Warm Weekend!

2011-02-25T09:29:00.000-06:00

The above image is what is happening this morning across the country. The line of showers and storms on the East Coast is what we had last night in Region 8. As you can see, we awoke to 30s and northerly winds. Click the image to enlarge. While we are cold and dry now, we will quickly start transitioning back to a warmer pattern tomorrow. In fact, we should be 20 degrees WARMER for Saturday. The weekend is actually looking pretty good! It appears the thunderstorms will return Sunday, leaving most of the daytime hours dry and warm on Sunday! The below image is Sunday night at midnight and shows the instability and isobars.

We're going to watch Sunday night closely. Make sure the weather radios are on! I'll continue to keep you posted with blog posts and Twitter, the micro blogging awesomeness of the world today!

Ryan

Severe WX Update, 8:45 AM

2011-02-24T08:51:00.001-06:00

As I type this, I have already had 2"+ of rain at my house and it is still raining. While we have had some thunder and lightning, the risk for severe weather does not really exist right now. We're watching the unstable air south of us and it's still no guarantee that it will make it this far north. In the above image (click to enlarge), I have plotted the radar at 8:30 AM and the current dewpoints. I have hatched out the areas with dewpoints of 60 and above. That's the more moist and eventually the more unstable air. If our dewpoints do not climb to 60 or at least 55, our severe weather threat will be much, much lower. Now let's look at this evening...

The above image shows simulated radar and pressure. This has the low passing north of us, which could lead to more of an unstable environment. It shows some decent storm in SE Arkansas and I really feel confident that the greater threat will be along and south of I40. This can change and the forecast is very fluid today. There will be a lot of nowcasting today.Publish Post

Look for my Tweets on Twitter for updates between blog post at @ryanvaughan or on the right side of this page.

Ryan

Thursday Update, And What About Sunday?

2011-02-23T15:02:00.000-06:00

Here's the latest data from StormCAST HD regarding tomorrow evening. This is 7PM on Thursday and it shows a squall line moving through Region 8. This is a good thing. A more linear storm system would be better than individual supercells. I also looked at the latest Tornado Potential product from StormCAST and it shows a very low threat for tornadoes. Heavy rain is still a great concern though. Below is the estimated 48 hour rainfall totals from StormCAST

Remember, this is just one model that we look at to forecast and other data suggests more rainfall than what is seen in the above image. For those that don't know, StormCAST is a model we run here at KAIT. It is a HIGH resolution model grid for Region 8.

Once we get through Thursday, we have to start watching Sunday Evening. Initially, it seemed the next storm would arrive on Monday, but it now appears faster and stronger than Thursday's storm....

If you notice the image above, it is what could be happening in the upper-atmosphere on Sunday evening. The bright greens and yellows are high winds aloft. The solid lines are 500mb heights and when they "fan" out over Region 8... it creates "lift" and storms. Let's not get weather ADD though and stay focused on Thursday first.

Take care,
Ryan

Severe Weather Thursday

2011-02-23T09:49:00.000-06:00

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a moderate risk for severe weather for Region 8 for Thursday. While I initially thought this may be a little overdone, I'm starting to buy into the fact that dangerous storms may arrive late on Thursday for parts of Region 8. The greatest risk for severe weather will be where the spin meets the instability.

If you just look at the instability parameters, it's not overly impressive in NE Arkansas, but it is enough to get these storms going. The above image is CAPE and it shows some higher amounts of CAPE in the state. Now, let's combine the CAPE with the shear to see the greatest threat....

When you combine the the shear and instability to pinpoint the area of greatest concern (EHI), you will see an elevated risk of tornadoes between Jonesboro and Memphis. This is the area we need to watch late on Thursday. Keep in mind, if the warm front does not lift far enough north, the unstable air does not come into play and we only get heavy rain. That would be awesome! I root for Region 8... not tornadoes. Heavy rain will come in regardless...

The above image is the expected rainfall! Over 3" of rain is possible, if not more, in parts of Region 8. Stay ahead of the storm over the next 36 hours by staying in touch with us on air and online.

Take care,
Ryan

Return Flow?

2011-02-22T09:09:00.000-06:00

You may have heard me talk about the "return flow" from time to time. I try to avoid using that term because it is not real conversational and really doesn't express what is really happening in the atmosphere. The above image is the BUFKIT program showing the model output of the GFS through 72 hours. I have plotted the winds from the surface and above to show you the "return flow" that should take place after this cool down we are feeling today. The timeline goes from RIGHT to LEFT. I have marked the cool northerly flow we are seeing today with the blue arrow and the warmer, more moist (return flow) with the yellow arrow. As this flow transitions, the axis of high pressure will move over. The CENTER of high pressure will be north of us, so the H that I have plotted on the graphic is a little deceiving. Regardless, I think you get the point.

The warmer air may help fuel some storms on Thursday. More blogging about that later today.

Ryan

Watching Thursday

2011-02-21T11:36:00.000-06:00

A decent center of low pressure is set to come through on Thursday (see image). Models are in pretty good agreement that we'll see a decent rainfall. There is some chatter about the threat of severe weather among the state too. As I have been mentioning on Twitter, I'm not sold on a severe weather outbreak. I'm not saying it is impossible and I'm not saying we will not see some severe watches, warnings, or even severe wx reports. I'm just saying that this does not appear to be an outbreak with widespread damage. It's only Monday and I may feel differently tomorrow.

I DO think we will see lightning, hear thunder, and even see some heavy rain! Below is a map of the expected rainfall from the GFS:

Notice the area of red/orange on the map. That indicates 4-5 inches of rain! That would be enough to cause some issues in some spots.

So, stay tuned to the latest information. If I start feeling more confident about the severe weather threat, I'll tell yah!

Ryan

Snow Estimates

2011-02-09T15:34:00.000-06:00

The snow is still falling in some spots, but it's is starting to end. StormTRACK Doppler 8 has a decent handle on the snow estimates. There are some areas that got a little more, some that got a little less, but overall... it shows a good idea of who got what. With the exception of the heavy band that developed from Sharp County to Pocahontas to Clay County to The Bootheel. That band developed this morning and HAMMERED some areas for an hour or two! Here's my forecast from 10:00 last night. Not too shabby, minus that renegade band!!!

Anywho, I'm hoping this is the end of the winter. There are some signs of a nice warming next week!

Ryan

How Much Snow Will Fall?

2011-02-09T08:43:00.000-06:00

The above graph shows several models and how much snow each one is showing for Jonesboro using various methods to calculate the amounts. Click the image to enlarge. As you can see, it's not as easy as "looking at a model" to see what happens. Storm track, radar trends, temperature profiles, etc, etc factor into how much snow we will see. It's not easy, but possible. Yes, we change our forecast leading up to the storm based on new data. I'm not sure why that bothers people. The forecast will be "tweaked" as we get closer to the storm.

The snow is falling now. It started sticking fast and I started getting a little anxious about our forecast at first, but we're good. I went 2-4" for Jonesboro at 6:00 last night... then backed it down to 1-3". (Not a big deal"... Sarah this morning is going 2-5" areawide and I think that is good for now. Could a few spots get 6"? Sure, we mentioned that in all newscasts... Mainly SW of Jonesboro.

Here's the problem. It's a dry and powdery snow and is blowing around like crazy! It's going to be hard to measure. In a 10x10 square a person can measure a range of 5" easily! LOL

Here's the deal... the roads are going to be bad. Many people can sled. It's going to be cold. Whether you get 2-3" or 4-6", the result will be very similar. Even if you have 2"... I bet you can find a snow drift that measures much more! :)

Enjoy it! It happened... again.

Ryan

Midnight Wednesday Update

2011-02-09T00:02:00.000-06:00

This short-term model, the RUC, shows the snow starting in Jonesboro around 11AM and it gives us about 2" of snow on a 15:1 ratio by 5PM.

Stay tuned,
Ryan

Tuesday Afternoon Video Update

2011-02-08T15:17:00.000-06:00

Here's a quick video update looking over the midday run of the NAM. It is more in line with our forecast I believe. Take a look and we'll continue to keep you updated. Tune in tonight for the latest info and watch for the warming trend in the 7 Day forecast!

Ryan

Monday Evening Video Update

2011-02-07T20:44:00.000-06:00

I started video updates years ago and I'm going to try it again. I'm not sure I'm sold on doing video updates... but who knows. Here's a look at the evening run of the NAM that just came in..

Ryan

Sunday Night Snow Update

2011-02-06T21:58:00.000-06:00

One model we often use as a storm is approaching is the RUC model or Rapid Update Cycle. It's really short term. Look at what it shows through 10AM. A solid 1-2" of snow is shown here, but look at Mississippi County. This particular model shows 3-5" of snow for Mississippi County through 10AM. I'm not going to completely rule that out, but we have been in the 40s today and we'll have to see the temperatures fall fast in order to see amounts like that... We would also have to see the snow come down pretty hard.

I'm not saying it could not happen, but it's "conditional". We'll continue to track the storm tonight, but as of right now... look for 1-2" of snow through tomorrow morning.

Don't forget to use the Interactive Radar by clicking here: http://www.kait8.com/Global/category.asp?C=90388

Take care!
Ryan

Two Chances For Snow

2011-02-05T21:27:00.000-06:00

There are two chances for snow over the next few days. First off, Wednesday looks to be the most promising day.We have a storm passing through tomorrow, but I'm not 100% sold on it accumulating, but we'll have to watch and see. IF we can changeover to snow before the storm exits, we may pickup an inch of snow again by Monday morning. That's the blue lines on the left. THEN, Wednesday we have a low pressure passing to our south with cold air in place. It's possible to see 3-5" of snow from that system! Here's the map for Wednesday:

My forecast for this winter called for a few "nuisance" winter storms... one big winter storm... and a tornado outbreak before March. We have had some little winter storms. Wednesday may be our big winter storm... and then we will warm up in 2 weeks. Could that be the fuel for storms before the end of the month? It may be... Look at the temperatures in 2 weeks! 60s and maybe some 70s in the region are not out of the question:

Here's the deal... February is going to be a month when you want to stay with us to catch the latest forecast! It could get a little bumpy!

Ryan