Severe Weather Tonight and Tomorrow

As I type this blog at 8:35 AM, there are severe storms in the Kansas City area. We will have to track these storms all day until they arrive in Region 8 this evneing. Another round of storms comes after midnight... and maybe another tomorrow afternoon. Here are the storms that are ongoing and the track they will likely take today:

The storms in Kansas City have had some hail! Here are the most likely places to have seen hail over the past hour:

Here are some bullet points about the next 36 hours:

• The storms in the Kansas City area will be here this evening, but will be weakening as the move into Region 8 (I hope). These storms will have some gusty winds and maybe some hail.
• Severe storms will develop in the southern plains this evening and a severe weather outbreak is possible in Oklahoma and Kansas. These storms will weaken and move into Region 8 between midnight and daybreak. Even though they are weakening, they could be severe.
•  If the atmosphere can recover from the storms in the morning, we may see an other round in the afternoon. IF the storms in the afternoon develop, they could be severe.

Here's the severe weather threat level today:

Here are the individual severe weather probabilities from the Storm Prediction Center for today:

Follow me on Twitter for updates through the day and the StormTRACK 8 App.

Severe Storms This Week

Simply put, we could have strong to severe storms this week. I think the focal point will be Wednesday. Here are my bullet points for the week ahead:

• The atmosphere becomes unstable through the day on Monday, but I'm not expecting much coverage on Monday. A little more possible on Monday night.
• Tuesday, the atmosphere will be very unstable with a front to the north. I'm more concerned about large hail than tornadoes on Tuesday.
• Wednesday still looks to be the main show. We have been warning about Wednesday for days. Don't panic or worry. We have been in this setup before and been fine, but it is a setup that has produced tornadoes in the past.
• Thursday still looks unstable, but since the cold front has passed and the dynamics have move past us, it should be mainly a hail and wind threat.
• This week, flooding should not be a problem. If there is a problem, it will be isolated. 

I'm off work today, but Rachel will break down the latest details tonight. Now is the time to make sure you have the notifications turned on for the StormTRACK 8 app. Now is the time to review your severe weather plan with your family.

I'll be doing a Facebook Live video at some point tonight. Make sure you subscribe to my Facebook page notifications and it will alert your phone: https://www.facebook.com/ryanvaughanweather/ 

Ryan

Next Week Looks Active

The pattern next week looks like one that could produce severe weather in the southern plains to Region 8. You may have noticed that we are using some new graphics in some of our newscasts. We are testing some new equipment that has some data not available to us for "on air use" over the past few years. This map shows "CAPE" or convective available potential energy. This is the energy or fuel for storms. Notice that it GREATLY increases in the southern plains on Tuesday:

That unstable air moves east on Wednesday and could impact Region 8. It's very early, but severe weather is possible next week. It could start as early as Monday, but I'm most concerned with Wednesday. Stay tuned!

Ryan