Tuesday, August 12, 2014

More on the Winter Outlook

I'm intrigued by comparing the 2009/2010 winter to the upcoming 2014/2015 winter. If you missed my first post, click here.

Tonight, I decided to dig deeper into 2009 and the winter that followed. So far, we have had a relatively cool August in 2014. In 2009, the month of August looked very similar. Here's the climate log. Click to enlarge:
So, hypothetically... let's say the upcoming winter will be similar to the winter of 2009/2010. I pulled some data to create a map that shows the total snowfall of the 2009/2010 season:
As we already mentioned, that was a snowy season. I just wanted to see it on a map. I may dig into this a little more as we get closer to winter... I mean, it's only August, right?


Monday, August 11, 2014

Snowy Winter For Region 8?

My job is to forecast for the next 7 days and go on your TV, phone, tablet, and computer to tell you what to expect. There are some people that do long-term forecasts. Their typical customers are insurance, energy, and agricultural companies.

One of those long-range forecasters is Joe Bastardi of www.weatherbell.com. Joe has recently been discussing the upcoming winter and has mentioned that Region 8 should expect MORE snow this winter than an average winter.

He specifically highlighted two winter seasons that we should look at to make a comparison, the 2002/2003 winter and the 2009/2010 winter. I decided to pull some data from those two winters and they were rather snowy!

Let's start with looking at the Jonesboro snowfall totals for the past 10 years. For some reason, the snowfall data is not available prior to 2004. Click image to enlarge:
In the above image, you can see that the 2009/2010 winter season had a lot of snow, with over 13" for the season! I remember that winter well. This was NOT the Ice Storm winter... that was the 2008/2009 winter. During the 2009/2010 winter, we did A LOT of sledding....

Since the Jonesboro data only went back to 2004, I decided to look up a few more locations. Here is Corning, AR and notice the two snowiest winters... 2002/2003 and 2009/2010:
And finally, here is Pocahontas, AR... Once again, the same winters were the snowiest:
So, if Joe Bastardi is right and the upcoming winter is like the 2002/2003 and 2009/2010 season, get the sleds ready!

Tuesday, August 05, 2014

Moving On...

I'm typically not the type of person that gets attached to a home. My wife and I have lived in a few states and we've had a few homes. In less than 2 weeks, we are moving again. For some reason, leaving this home is different. I won't get into all of the long personal stories, but we have had a lot of life in this home.

As we prepare to move, several things are already gone from the yard. The trampoline which had hundreds of hours of use has been disassembled and thrown away. It was entirely too old to jump on anymore. The playground has be moved to the neighbors yard to hopefully give hours of fun to their grand-kids, like it has given to my kids and the kids that lived here before us. The tree still stands. This tree has provided shade for the kids to play outdoors in the hottest afternoons. Also, as you can see, it is also an awesome tree to climb. I've even climbed it a time or two.

If this home had a little more room, we would not leave. Our neighbors are awesome, the area is quiet, and I have some great bike routes from this house! But, with 4 kids, we need more room.

We already know some of our new neighbors and we are looking forward to our new home. I pray that the transition goes smooth! We're only moving a few miles away... What could go wrong? LOL


Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Thank You

I've been meaning to write this blog for awhile, but every time it's on my mind, I'm too pooped to write it. Anywho, I'm finally getting around to composing my thoughts.

I started cycling last year. When I started, I rode a couple of miles in my neighborhood and never ventured out too far. I built up my endurance a little, but was still too concerned to leave the neighborhood. I had heard about cyclists being run over and to be honest... I did not want to be run over!

One day, I ventured out and rode 8 miles. A few weeks later, I rode 12 miles. A few weeks after that, I rode 20 miles. It's addictive, peaceful, enjoyable, and I even get a little exercise. My wife also rides and it has become something we can do together when the kids are in school.

My favorite route is pictured above. I typically see these cows at the halfway point of my 20 mile route. They stare at me... I stare at them. Being a guy that was raised in the city, cows are still interesting to me. On this route, I have seen goats, turtles, rabbits, snakes, a skunk, deer, eagles, ducks, geese, and few bugs. One thing I have not seen yet... a rude person.

I want to thank the people along this route. I typically wait until after 8:00 to ride to avoid people's rush to work, but I still encounter cars. The state law says to give a 3 foot distance when passing a bike and 99% of people do that and I thank you! For those that have seen me out and waved, thank you! You make the ride even better.

My dad had a heart attack when he was in his 40s. Thankfully, he lived. I do not want to have a heart attack in my 40s, so I have found something I enjoy to help keep my blood flowing well. Thanks for sharing the road.

Have a great night!

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Tough Forecast on Friday

We have a tough forecast on Friday. While some models keep us in a soaking rainfall and cool temperatures, one model keeps us almost completely dry. Here are four looks at the models. First the rainy ones showing the rain really increasing on Friday morning:

The fly in the ointment is the GFS model. It has the low pressure a little farther south and the rain would be farther south.

As of now, we are going with the "wetter" consensus. There are two reasons why. First, the GFS was also wetter a few days ago for Friday. Second, it is alone. Now, that's not always a determinate. I've seen models all alone before and nail it. We'll have to wait and see. In the meantime, let's plan for rain... and enjoy the nice day we have today and most of tomorrow!

Take care,