Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Tough Forecast on Friday

We have a tough forecast on Friday. While some models keep us in a soaking rainfall and cool temperatures, one model keeps us almost completely dry. Here are four looks at the models. First the rainy ones showing the rain really increasing on Friday morning:


The fly in the ointment is the GFS model. It has the low pressure a little farther south and the rain would be farther south.

As of now, we are going with the "wetter" consensus. There are two reasons why. First, the GFS was also wetter a few days ago for Friday. Second, it is alone. Now, that's not always a determinate. I've seen models all alone before and nail it. We'll have to wait and see. In the meantime, let's plan for rain... and enjoy the nice day we have today and most of tomorrow!

Take care,
Ryan
 

Thursday, July 10, 2014

COOL Air Next Week!

I don't have a lot of time this morning, but I wanted to share some good news and bad news. That bad news is that we will be very hot and humid this weekend and early next week, BUT the good news is that MUCH cooler air appears to arrive on Tuesday! Take a look at this graph of several model runs. You can clearly see the warming trend, and clearly see the cool down next week! Click image to enlarge.
This is very abnormal for July, but I doubt we will hear many complaints. Typically, we have highs in the 90s, but highs may not even make it out of the 70s next Wednesday. Here is one model's output of high temperatures on Wednesday:
So, how far from normal is this? Take a look at this map. It shows how much "cooler than average" these temperatures would be. Anyone upset with 15-25 degrees below average for July?
Anywho, I'm out of time. Take care!
Ryan

Wednesday, July 02, 2014

LESS Muggy Air is Coming!

It's still a little muggy this morning, but changes are coming TODAY! As you know, we use the "Dewpoint" to measure the mugginess in the air. For the past few days, the dewpoints have been in the mid 70s, which is very muggy! Here are the dewpoints this morning. Click image to enlarge:
Later today, less humid air will be moving in and by tomorrow morning, it will be refreshing! Here are the dewpoints on Thursday morning. Click image to enlarge:
Hear me now and believe me tomorrow... It's going to feel awesome! Here's some more good news. It's still going to be comfortable on the 4th of July! Here's a graph of several model's output of the dewpoint over the next 7 days. The lower dewpoints are with us through Saturday, but the mugginess returns on Sunday:
What are your 4th of July plans?

Have a great day!
Ryan

Friday, June 06, 2014

Severe Storms Possible Again Today

I'm not in the panic business, so let me start by saying that we're not expecting a repeat of yesterday. With that said, we still need to be prepared for severe storms again today. Here are the bullet points at 10:15 AM:

  • Strong storms are expected to move in this afternoon.
  • Straight line winds are the main threat.
  • The magnitude should not be as extreme as yesterday, but still be on guard.
  • Extreme lightning expected.
  • Hail is possible in some of the more intense storms.
  • Tornado threat is very low, but still possible.
Let's take a stab at the timing of these storms. Right now, they are 250 miles away from Jonesboro. Here is the latest radar as I type this blog:
The storms in the above image have had severe thunderstorm warnings with them and are expected to become stronger. As mentioned, they are 250 miles away from Jonesboro and are moving east at 45 mph. At that speed, they should be in Jonesboro in 5-6 hours or 3:30-4:30. Here are couple of things to remember about the timing:
  • The storms will enter our western viewing area between 1:30-2:30 PM.
  • There are storms ahead of the main batch, so rain is still possible before these times.
  • It is possible that this system will speed up. 
  • If everything goes as expected, the strongest storms will exit Region 8 by 6:00-7:00 PM.
Stay tuned to my Twitter feed on the side of this page or on your Twitter App for more frequent updates.

-Ryan

Wednesday, June 04, 2014

Severe Weather Update, 8:20 PM

If you have looked on the screen on KAIT, you have seen that part of Region 8 is under a Tornado Watch until 3:00 AM. I'm hoping the storms move through before then, but we need to stay prepared in case they don't. Here are the bullet points at 8:20 PM:
  • The main threat is still straight-line winds.
  • Hail is possible.
  • The tornado threat is low, but still possible.
  • You will likely see lighting north of you well before the storms arrive.
As the sun goes down, you will start to see lightning north of you. Typically, this is called "heat lightning". It has nothing to do with "heat", but is called that because it typically happens in the Summer. Let me explain. Right now, most of us have mostly clear skies overhead. North of us, the storms are buildings thousands of feet into the sky. For example, this is a look at the storm north of West Plains. Click to enlarge:
As you can see, it is building up to 60,000 feet! Just like it is easy to spot a tall person in a crowed room, it is easy to spot a tall storm when everyone has clear skies. Here is our skycam in Hardy, AR and you can see that storm:
As it gets darker, we will start seeing the lightning from these storms, well before they arrive. 

Stay tuned!
Ryan

Earthquake Hits Arkansas

A 3.8 magnitude earthquake hit near Fairfield Bay, AR this afternoon. I first got a Twitter report from Albert Martin:

I then started checking the seismographs around the area and noticed many of them were showing something. This was Lakes Charles seismograph:
 I then checked one of the temporary seismographs closer to the epicenter:

If you are not familiar with the area, here is a map:
Shaking was felt through a good part of Region 8, but as of 4:45 PM, I have had no reports of damage. I'll pass along more info as I get it.

Ryan

Severe Weather Threat

The chance for severe weather is increasing across Region 8 tonight and for the next few days. I do not have a lot of time right now, but I wanted to give you a quick update. Here are the bullet point at 3:15 PM on Wednesday:

  • There is currently a Tornado Watch in effect until 8:00 PM for parts of Missouri in Region 8.
  • There is a chance of severe weather tonight, tomorrow, and Friday for Region 8.
  • Straight-line winds appear to be the MAIN threat.
  • Hail is the secondary threat.
  • Tornadoes are possible, but are not the primary threat.
Here is a computer model, simulating what radar may look like at 8:00 PM this evening:


After glancing at some data, this looks very possible. As you can see, SE Missouri and extreme NE Arkansas would have the best chance of severe weather. This threat would extend into Tennessee and Kentucky. If you live in this areas, stay "weather aware" this evening.

Tonight, I plan on blogging about the severe weather threat for tomorrow and Friday.

Take care,
Ryan