Saturday, March 11, 2017

Saturday Morning Snow Update: A Little More Concerned

This picture has me concerned. It's a picture from NW Tennessee this morning where some precipitation has already started. The big question with this storm system was: WILL THE SNOW STICK? Well, this picture shows about 1/2" of snow, but it's easily sticking to the roads! They were also in the 70s, two days ago.

Here are some bullet points:

  • Sleet and snow is already falling in areas.
  • Mostly rain through the day, but some places may dabble in wintry mix all day.
  • Rain changes to snow for most areas later in the afternoon.
  • Snow this evening.
  • I'll be in the Central Ford StormTRACKER providing updates this evening.
  • Snow may stick easier and faster than previously thought. (Based on pic above)
  • Generally, 1-2" for areas that change to snow.
  • Melts tomorrow.
  • Churches may be impacted.
Let's look at some data. This is what StormCAST (RPM) is showing at 6:00 PM. Many areas will be rain, but spotty areas switching to snow:


By 9:00 PM, many locations will be all snow:


Latest short term data is still showing 1-2" of snowfall. Don't focus on exact areas, but rather the overall pattern:
Stay tuned!
Ryan


Wednesday, March 08, 2017

Sleet and Snow? Say It Ain't So...


First off, this is a post from 2017 and not 2014 ;). There is a CHANCE that some parts of Region 8 will see some sleet and snow Saturday. Here's the quick bullet points:
  • Most of this storm will be plain rain, especially Jonesboro southward.
  • Best chance of snow will be in Missouri , BUT latest data is showing some sleet and snow in Arkansas, too.
  • It will be hard to get the sleet and snow to stick, but it might. Best chance is the northern half of Region 8 which includes Missouri and the counties bordering Missouri.
  • There will be a "sweet spot" somewhere in Region 8 that gets a good coverage of sleet and snow. I'm not placing bets on where that will be yet. 
Models are in agreement... for now. This first image is the European model and the second image in the GFS or American model:

Remember, sleet will not "add up" to as much as snow, but I've noticed that it sticks easier. At this point, I'm thinking sleet for the areas that get below 32.

Stay tuned!
Ryan

Monday, February 27, 2017

Severe Weather Tuesday into Tuesday Night

We have a tricky forecast over the next 48 hours. We could see 2 rounds of severe weather. The first round is what we call "conditional". We know that the air is going to become very unstable and the dynamics that support severe weather will exist Tuesday afternoon. The big question is if storms will develop in this environment, ahead of the cold front that will come through early on Wednesday morning. You may have heard us mention a "cap" before. This "cap" is some warmer air aloft that prevents the air below it from rising. Essentially, it snuffs out storm development until the air below it warms enough to overcome "break" the cap. If we get really warm tomorrow afternoon, it will be easier to overcome that cap. That's why we always say that seeing sunshine in this type of environment is not a good thing. Here are my bullet points, as of Monday morning:

  • Spotty showers and storms are possible Tuesday morning. We are not worried about these storms.
  • The environment becomes more conducive for severe weather Tuesday afternoon.
  • Tuesday night into Wednesday morning is more likely for severe weather.
  • Damaging winds, hail, and tornado are possible.
  • Great threat will be northwest of Highway 67, but everyone needs to be prepared.
  • I can't stress this enough. Have something that wakes you up during severe weather and a backup. Our app will give you tornado warnings, but also have a weather radio or secondary way to get warnings.
  • Review your severe weather plan before bedtime Tuesday night with the entire family.
Let's make it visual. The data here is "Significant Tornado Parameter". In the morning, the threat is very low:
As we warm up and as the dynamics come together, the index goes up a little by lunchtime on Tuesday. At this point, I'm still not worried. The kids will be fine at school and we will have a somewhat normal day:
In the evening, things get interesting. The air becomes more unstable and the liklihood of storms goes up. This is the "conditional" round 1. The greater threat is still west of us:
Going into Midnight, we see our highest threat:
By 3AM, the threat is moving NE:
During this time frame, the radar may look something like this:
That's all I have right now because I'm in a hurry. Video updates will also be on the KAIT weather app. Stay tuned.

Ryan

Wednesday, February 22, 2017

Have We Had A Winter? I Say "Kind of..."


As we start to question if Winter is done, many are asking if we ever had a Winter. I say "kind of...". Let me break down some facts that might surprise you:

  • We had 13 days with freezing temperatures in December.
  • We had 7 days in the 20s in December.
  • We had 3 days in the teens! We woke up on on December 19th at 13°!
  • We had a trace of snow on December 17th. Side note... We went from 76° to 19° from the 17th to the 18th!
  • We officially had 2" of snowfall on January 6th in Jonesboro. I only had 0.50" and other parts of Region 8 had flurries. Still... officially there was 2".
  • We had 8 days with freezing temperatures in January. 
  • Morning lows for January 6th-9th were: 17,11,10,18 respectively. 
  • Even this month (February), we have had 6 mornings of freezing temperatures. 
  • On February 4th, we started the day at 23°.
So, I say we "kind of" had a Winter. It's been a Winter with some BIG swings in temperatures, but we expected that. February is going to go down as one of the warmest on record. We are already in the Top 6!

I've come to learn that we have about a "2 week weather memory". That means that if we had 20° for the next 2 weeks and 1-2 snow events, we would forget about the 70s over the past week. With that said... I see no snow in the forecast. ;)

Have a great (Springlike) day!
Ryan

Monday, February 20, 2017

Top 10 Warmest February Temperatures In Region 8

As of today, this is the 8th warmest February on record in Jonesboro. The average temperature is running 7.8° above average. That's the warmest February in 27 years! Here's the Top 10 warmest average February temperatures on record:
As always, I like to look back at the record breaking years, so let's look at 1930 in Jonesboro. I highlighted some interesting things:
All of the dates that had 60s and 70s, I highlighted. They had most of their warm air in the second half of the month. We had some 70s earlier this month and 70s in the forecast. I feel we are going to break into the Top 5 before this month is over. Another thing to note about 1930 is the number of frosts. They had 8 mornings with frost. I don't have an exact number for 2017, but I think we have only had 3-4 so far. Something that has lowered our average in 2017 is the overnight lows. You may have forgotten, but we woke up on February 4th with a temperature of 23°.
We will continue to watch the rest of the month unfold, but with forecast highs in the 60s and 70s over the next 6 days, a Top 10 finish for warmest February temperatures seems very likely.

Stay tuned!
Ryan