Monday, August 29, 2016

Relief From The Mugginess Late This Week!

It's hot and humid, but we have increasing confidence that the weather will get much better later this week. Here are my thoughts right now:

  • Monday-Wednesday will have scattered storms in the afternoon heating.
  • It's all about the Dewpoint!!!
  • Less humid air and cooler air starts moving in Thursday morning.
  • Dewpoints (which measures the mugginess) go from 70s to 50s! 
  • Tuesday night's Jonesboro vs. Batesville game will still be hot and muggy.
  • Thursday night Junior High Football games will be nice!
  • Football Friday Night and the ASTATE game on Friday evening will be even better!
Here are the dewpoints this evening. They will be in the 70s and it will be muggy:

As the less humid air starts moving in on Thursday, it will feel much better! Dewpoints will be in the low 60s!
The trend continues on Friday as dewpoints fall into the 50s! This will be one of the most comfortable Week 1 football forecasts we have ever had!

Let's hope this data does not change! 

There is also some action in the tropics that will likely not impact Region 8. I'll have that tonight on Region 8 News.

Ryan

Tuesday, August 23, 2016

Even Here In Region 8... We Watch The Tropics

There is a disturbance just east of the Lesser Antilles that needs to be watched. Admittedly, it's almost impossible to know the outcome of it's existence and it does not even have a name, yet. However, the technology is available to at least make us aware of something we need to watch for next week. The European model is already suggesting that this disturbance will be named soon.The above image is several models plotted on one map. We call it a spaghetti plot. I'm sure you can see why... But, notice the general trend to take it into the Gulf of Mexico. The Euro model started showing this setup and now the GFS is on board.

I was not overly concerned when I saw this trend (and I'm still not, really), but even here in Region 8, we have to watch the tropics. As we learned with Hurricane Ike, the tropics can greatly impact our harvest season, especially for rice. While we are several days out from this impacting any part of the United States, I do want us to be aware that we need to watch it closely. This is only one model run of the GFS and it's 7-10 days out, but it has this thing coming in as a tropical storm and bringing us 20-30 mph winds and rain. It's way out there, but let's not ignore it either....

Stay tuned and we will keep you updated.

-Ryan

Wednesday, August 17, 2016

More Storms Coming, But Less Humid Soon!

The models were going back and forth on when the rain will move out this weekend, but we are starting to see a nice consistency in the models! The image above shows the expected rainfall from a few models. Notice the consistency in timing and amounts. Here are my thoughts on the next few days:

  • Showers and storms continue with the best chance, coverage, and intensity on Friday and Saturday.
  • The atmosphere will be more unstable than the past few days on Friday and Saturday, so lightning is likely. Strong storms are possible, too.
  • Models have been flip-flopping, but I'm growing more confident that the rain chances drop Sunday morning.
  • Less Humid air moves in late Sunday and will last through Tuesday.
  • Sunshine on Monday!
Now, let's dig a little deeper. The atmosphere right now is pretty stable. We have not had much lightning lately and the rain today is light. A product that we use to see how much "energy" is in the atmosphere to produce storms is CAPE. Here's the CAPE for today. Notice the lack of yellows and oranges.  :
Going into Friday and Saturday, the air is more unstable:
I do not expect widespread severe weather, but a few storms could be strong. After the weekend, MUCH nicer air moves into Region 8! Look at the drop in dewpoints early next week:
Stay tuned for any changes over the next few days. I think we are going to like the weather early next week!

Ryan

Saturday, August 13, 2016

Unbelievable Flooding in Louisiana.


The above image is from Range, LA. It's a tweet sent to our Raycom News Network station, WAFB. The rainfall in the Baton Rouge area is incredibly bad. Several water rescues are underway right now.

WAFB has been on top of this record breaking rainfall. You can watch their coverage at www.wafb.com

They have also posted some interesting facts about how historic this rainfall has been:



August 26, 1926 popped a few times while I was researching this historic flood. I pulled some old climate logs to see thsoe days from Baton Rouge and Donaldsville, LA:



Continue to follow WAFB for more info. This same moisture is impacting Region 8 now. The Ozarks could see 5-8" of rainfall over the next few days.

Ryan

Thursday, August 11, 2016

Wet Pattern Setting Up


Are you needing some rain? If so, the pattern is going to be in your favor over the next week or so. Here are my thoughts on the upcoming weekend and the first week of school:

  • Many outdoor activities in Region 8 will be impacted this weekend.
  • We will need to watch radar closely for the Cave City Watermelon festival.
  • Heaviest rainfall may be in the western and northern parts of Region 8. (More on that below)
  • Many people will see some rain on their first day of school.
  • Models are differing on how much rain, but not differing on the overall outcome.
So, let's dig into some data. Euro and GFS models are agreeing on the wetter pattern. They are also agreeing on the placement of the heaviest rainfall. The Euro has higher rainfall amounts:
 The GFS has lower rainfall amounts overall, but still A LOT of similarities in the overall outcome. If this pattern plays out like the GFS and Euro are showing, some areas will be DRIER (or less wet) than others. Less wet counties include Mississippi, Poinsett, Cross, and Crittenden counties. Everywhere else seem to be wetter. Here's the GFS:
Here's the deal... A lot of you have been asking me about outdoor plans this weekend. It's going to rain. I don't think it will rain ALL day, but in the locations above that are showing higher rainfall amounts, the likelihood of being impacted by rain is greater. This includes Lake Norfork and the Spring River. 

Take care and have a great end to the week! -Ryan