Wednesday, September 05, 2018

Gordon: Wednesday Morning Update

Gordon is now a depression as it moves through Mississippi. It should be in Arkansas later tonight. Here are the bullet points this morning:

  • There has not been much change in the forecast.
  • There still appears to be the chance of a sharp precipitation gradient across the state.
  • The best chance of rain from Gordon is Thursday and Friday.
  • Front moves in to enhance rain on Saturday and Sunday.
So, as I said, there has not been much change. Most data takes the center of Gordon SW and W of us and this would also be where the highest rainfall amounts should be located. The European model is showing a very sharp gradient. This is it's projected rainfall before the front moves in:
This is the projected totals after the front, too:
The GFS has flip-flopped on the position of the low pressure and really just paints a large 2-4" area of rainfall on everyone:
Overall for the state, it would be good to not have 5-10" of rain in spots, but for Region 8... most are hoping for the Euro solution. It has been the one that has been the most consistent, so I'm still leaning that direction. 

We're watching it! More updates tonight on Region 8 News. 
Ryan

Tuesday, September 04, 2018

Gordon: Tuesday Morning Update

Good Tuesday morning, everyone! Not much has changed with the track of Gordon. Gordon will likely become a hurricane shortly and make landfall near the Mississippi/Louisiana coastline tonight. We will be covering it extensively tonight on Region 8 News. Here are the bullet points this morning:

  • Gordon makes landfall tonight.
  • Gordon comes into Arkansas as a DEPRESSION tomorrow night into Thursday.
  • Region 8 will see less of an impact than other parts of Arkansas and Missouri.
  • Highest wind gusts will be in southern and western Arkansas.
  • Highest rain totals are likely going to be near the center of the track (outside of Region 8)
  • There will be a SHARP gradient of rainfall totals over the next few days.
Let's dive into some maps and data. To be 100% transparent (and this may come back to bite me), I think most of Region 8 will be fine. Some of the most reliable data has the track staying southwest of Region 8. We will still get rain, but flooding rains and higher wind gusts should stay SW of us. We are watching it closely to look for changes. 

Let's talk about the rainfall expectations. First, here's the forecast from Weather Prediction Center at NOAA. Notice, they give Region 8 LESS THAN 1.00" of rainfall through the entire week:
This next map shows the expected heavy rainfall from Gordon. Once again, the worst stay away from Region 8, BUT it's still too close to not watch it closely:
As I have been doing, it seems NWS is basing a lot of their products on the European model. Here's the latest output of total rainfall through Sunday morning:
And here's a closer look at the total rainfall from the Euro. Notice that some parts of the state would get 5-10" of rainfall! IF this happened, most of Region 8 would see less than 2"... many less than 1":
I don't want to show you a one-sided picture though. There is still enough concern coming from other data sources that are going to keep us on our toes. The GFS shows the track a little more east, more broad, but not as extreme in Arkansas:
And here (below) is a closer look at the above map. Even this would not be devastating because it would come over 2-3 days. In my opinion, that's not as bad as getting 4-7" of rainfall in 24 hours like we do a couple of weeks back!
Now, let's talk about maximum wind gusts. Once again, we and the National Weather Service are not that concerned about the wind HERE in Region 8. Here's the probability of winds exceeding tropical storm force. There are concerns across much of Arkansas, but not that bad here in Region 8:
The latest data from the Euro showing where the highest wind gusts could be located. In Region 8, 20-25 mph gusts are possible:
Closer look:
That's all I have this morning. PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE stay updated with any changes to this forecast. I would hate for there to be changes to the track and you are caught off guard.

Thanks and have a good day,
Ryan

Monday, September 03, 2018

Gordon: Monday Morning Update


I'm going to start giving daily updates on Gordon on this blog. I'll start out with some simple bullet points and then dig into some maps/data. I may do 2-3 updates per day, depending on any changes. First off, here are the latest bullet points:

  • Gordon is a TROPICAL STORM now. Position seen above.
  • Tropical Storm WARNINGS have been posted along parts of the FL, AL, MS, and LA coastline.
  • Landfall is expected on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
  • The path (once it comes inland) is VERY QUESTIONABLE.
  • The leftovers of Gordon may impact Region 8 as early as Wednesday, but could be later if it stay SW of us.
  • At this time, I do not expect a wind problem in Region 8. (15-20 mph Wednesday)
  • At this time, flooding in Region 8 form Gordon does not look widespread.
  • IF (big IF) this storm takes the current NHC forecast path, all of Region 8 would see LESS THAN 2" of rainfall.
OK, let's dive into some data. I want to show you the best and worst case scenario. As a farmer, you want to cheer on the "European" model. It's the model that is typically most consistent and it gives us much less rainfall! Notice, it keeps the track and heaviest rainfall away from Region 8. Here's the storm total from the Euro. Yes, it shows less than 1.00" of rainfall for most of Region 8:

The NAM model also keeps the heaviest rain AWAY from Region 8 through Thursday (it only goes our so far):
At this time, the GFS model looks the worst. It has the center of Gordon coming right into Region 8. This would be bring 3-5" of rainfall to Region 8 through the week. It would not all come at one time, so it would not be a "flash" flooding issue:

So, if the GFS is right, the wind threat would be a little higher, but still NOTHING like Ike was a few years ago! Here are a series of images showing where the latest GFS puts the center. The blue on the map are the 15-25 mph winds. Notice how the winds decrease as it moves in:



And finally, here's the forecast rainfall amounts from NOAA. As you can see, they are also leaning towards the "Euro" like me:


There are still a lot of questions with this storm! We will continue to keep you updated! 

Ryan

Saturday, September 01, 2018

Watching Tropical Rains

There is a tropical disturbance that may form into a tropical storm over the next few days. It's that time of the year when we have to keep a close eye on the tropics, even for Region 8. Right now, it is near the Turks and Caicos islands, but is expected to move across Florida and possibly strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. At this time, I don't expect it to become a hurricane, but it stands a decent chance of becoming a tropical storm.

For us, we will have to watch how much rain it provides when it goes inland. One model keeps the deepest moisture along the gulf coast and DRENCHING many areas with SEVERAL inches of rain. Another model slings some of that moisture into Region 8, but overall... is not as wet for the overall system. Here's the latest look at 7 day forecast amounts from the Euro and GFS:

If it impacts us, it would be mid to late next week. We will watch it closely.

Ryan

Monday, August 20, 2018

Hail Threat Today

It's a little after midnight as I write this blog post regarding Monday afternoon, officially "today". It appears like we are going to see some severe storms develop later today that could produce some large hail and possibly tornadoes. Here are the bullet points:
  • Storms will fire after lunch.
  • Large hail is the main threat. The threat level is at "medium".
  • Quarter-size hail or larger is possible in these storms.
  • Coverage will be spotty, so not everyone will see rain.
  • Tornado threat is low, but still possible.
  • Storms should be gone by dinnertime. 
Here's my current thinking on the threat level for Monday afternoon:
The air will become very unstable in the area I have marked with a "medium" risk. CAPE or Convective Available Potential Energy is the "fuel" for storms. Notice where it is at it's highest this afternoon:
Now, just because there is a high CAPE does not guarantee rain and storms. This is a projection of what radar could look like:
As you can see, the coverage will not be widespread, but the storms could be intense. 

We will keep an eye on them!
Ryan