Friday, January 19, 2018

Next Storm Arrives Sunday Night

I'll admit that the warming trend is feeling nice across Region 8! Our next storm arrives on Sunday night and moves out Monday morning. Here are the quick points, first:

  • Spotty showers are possible on Saturday and Sunday, but the chances are LOW.
  • 100% chance of rain Sunday night into Monday morning.
  • All rain. NO WINTRY WEATHER.
  • 0.50"-1.00" of rain expected.
  • Lightning and thunder is possible.
  • Severe weather threat is very low.
  • No flooding threat.
So, let's dive into the data. As I mentioned above, there is a chance of some spotty showers this weekend as the warmer air increases. The chances are low and anything that does develop will not have much rainfall. This image shows the amount of rain that falls between 12AM and 6AM on Sunday morning:
The better rain chances come on Sunday night. This is the amount of projected rainfall between 6PM and midnight:
Most of the rain in Region 8 will come between midnight and 6AM:
I expect the back edge of rain to move out between 6AM-9AM for "MOST" of Region 8:

The only fly in the ointment that I want to keep an eye on is the chance for small hail producing storms on Monday in SEMO. As the upper-level ingredients move through on Monday, I'm SLIGHTLY concerned about a few hail producing storms. The hail would be SMALL, but still something to watch. The CAPE (Storm Energy) jumps up just a little. We will watch it, but I'm not overly concerned right now:
Enjoy the warmer temperatures this weekend!
Ryan

Monday, January 15, 2018

Timing of the Light Snow Today

If you check the Region 8 weather app, you will see that there is snow lurking close to Region 8. Clipper systems are like squirrels crossing the road in front of your car. You see them. You know they are going to cross the road. They speed up... slow down.. and then at some point... THEY RIP ACROSS.

We have been talking about this clipper moving through for several days. Initially, it looked like it would move through while we were sleeping tonight. If you have something that is 2,000 miles away and it's going 40 mph, it arrives in 50 hours. If it speeds up to 45 mph, it arrives in 44 hours. A small change makes a 6 hour difference. With our family, 6 hours is the difference between being at a ball game or being in my bed. There's the challenge. (I'm having a flash back to Mrs. Lamar's Algebra 2 class. Ugh)

Anywho, the snow today is coming in a little sooner. In fact, the snow is going to start in our northern counties and hang out for a few hours through the day. Thankfully, it is LIGHT. Eventually, it will make a push to the south this afternoon and evening. Overall, a coating is possible anywhere in Region 8. A few areas will see a little more than a coating. Parts of SEMO may see 1-2". When the snow cranks back up tonight, areas near I-40 may see 1-2". A general forecast of a coating to 1" will cover most areas. Let's clarify a "coating":

  • A coating is less than a inch
  • A coating will cover your car to where you need to clean your windshield off. Windshield wipers will probably get the job down.
  • A coating can make roads slick. Especially, side roads.
  • I've seen a coating cancel school, but not always!
  • A coating will not make snow cream. :(
  • You can probably sled on a coating, but you might get dirty from the grass, dirt, and dog poop.
Let's break down the timing:





Amounts will be light, but it's cold enough where it could easily stick. If you encounter a covered road, drive slow and you will be fine. Here's the latest short term guidance on amounts through 11PM... As you can see, they will be LIGHT, but some could see 1-3 if this snow machine really cranks up:


Have a good day!
Ryan

Sunday, January 14, 2018

Something Between "Flurries" and "Snow"

As we have mentioned for a few days, something is set to come through on Monday, but the magnitude is still in question. I decided to look into the latest data this evening. Here are my thoughts right now:

  • Snow showers are tomorrow. The system is moving a little faster than previously thought.
  • AM Timing: SE Missouri and extreme northern Arkansas between sunrise and lunch.
  • PM Timing: Morning round fizzles out and new round forms Monday afternoon and evening for Southern Region 8.
  • Between the AM and PM Round of light snow includes a section in Region 8, including Jonesboro. In this area, accumulations should be lower. 
  • I doubt many will see more than 1" or so... and many areas will just see flurries.
  • Though light, some secondary roads may get a coating.
  • In summary, zero to 1" of snow is possible.
While there are essentially two rounds of precipitation chances, it is still the same storm system. Most data suggests a "lull" in the early afternoon, as the storm moves south.

Let's dig into some data. The short range HRRR shows snow in our northern areas on Monday morning:
In the areas you see above, we could have a quick coating on the roads. We could even squeeze out 1" of snowfall. As the system moves south, most data has the activity die out to just flurries:
While it is only flurries, they will stick. Slow down a little, just in case. THEN, most data has the band of snow re-firing SOUTH of Region 8 around midnight:
So, how much snow could we see? There's a lot that goes into this, but the Euro and GFS are showing decent snow to the north and south, but many areas of Region 8 may just see flurries. Here are two models outputs:

It's a tricky forecast, but one we will watch. Remember, ZERO to 1" is the forecast. Some will see nothing. Some may do some weak sledding. 

Have a great night!
Ryan

Wednesday, January 10, 2018

Sleet And Ice Possible Friday Morning

A lot of people in Region 8 want to see some snow. While we may see some snow on Friday morning, it looks like sleet and freezing rain may be the greater threat. Here are the bullet points I want you to know, as of this morning (Wednesday):
  • Data is in decent agreement.
  • Rain on Thursday and Thursday evening.
  • SHARP temperature drop on Thursday night.
  • Rain switching to freezing rain and sleet.
  • Coating of ice glaze and sleet is possible.
  • Travel impacts are possible.
  • Most of the precipitation ends before 8AM on Friday.
Let's first start with the sharp temperature gradient on Thursday night. As the front moves across the area, we will likely have a temperature spread of 35° across Region 8! Here's one model at 6PM on Thursday evening:
As the cold air comes in, most data is showing the rain switching to a WINTRY MIX. Here are two of the most widely used models. One showing freezing rain (pink: ice glaze) and one showing sleet (orange: sleet falls frozen... and bounces):

If given the choice, I'll take the sleet because it does not stick to power lines and trees. By sunrise, both of these models have the precipitation exiting Region 8. Possibly ending as light snow:

If this all plays out like you see above, we would probably have some travel impacts. The forecast can still change, so STAY WITH US as we update the forecast over the next 36-40 hours.

Ryan

Thursday, January 04, 2018

2nd Coldest Start To A Year, But... No Snow.

The past 5 days have been COLD. In fact, this is the 2nd coldest start to a year on record! The coldest start to a year was in 1928:
Even though it has been COLD, we have not had much snow. A few flurries is about all we have seen. Heck, even Florida has seen more snow than Region 8! Here's a look at where it has snowed this Winter so far. Click image to enlarge:
I still feel like we will eventually see some wintry weather this winter. The force field is holding strong in Region 8.

By the way, some data is showing 60s next week...

Ryan