I know that I don't blog as much these days with the greater reach being on our app and social media, but I wanted to ease some fears about the severe weather threat for Wednesday night. Severe weather is going to cause higher anxiety in the months and possibly years to come. We are forecasting a MEDIUM risk of severe weather tomorrow and we are mainly going MEDIUM because of HAIL. We can't ever rule out tornadoes, but our main worry is HAIL. Bullet points about tomorrow:
Monday, February 24, 2020
- Greatest risk is mid-afternoon.
- I'm expecting numerous "pea-sized hail" reports from these storms.
- Gusty winds are possible.
- 1-2 small, spin-up, fast-forming tornadoes will be possible.
- School officials need to look at the weather situation before dismissing. Don't panic or change plans right now... just make sure there are no active warnings.
- Threat should be gone this evening.
Now let's talk about the details. As I type this, we are in the 40s. Temperatures are expected to warm into the 60s as a warm front continues to move north:
When we get between the warm front and the cold front, we will be in what we call the "warm sector". This is the area of concern where we will get unstable. This map below shows the instability. The parameter is called CAPE or Convective Available Potential Energy. Think of it as the fuel for severe weather. This map is just a snapshot from 3PM, so the threat will be moving west to east. Notice how it increases this afternoon:
When you breakdown more of the parameters, there are some products that try to pinpoint the risks. This map is a supercell index. Notice what it shows at 3PM. It's not crazy high, but worth bringing some concern. It could be much much worse.:
But, what most of you will be looking at is RADAR. This is a model projection of what radar could look like this afternoon. Remember, it is a model. Don't look at particular locations to pinpoint the supercells. Look at the pattern, the timing, the spacing, etc. A model is just giving you "an idea" of what could happen. It's not a prophet:
Stay weather aware this afternoon in case you get a warning at your location. Once again, this is a LOW risk.
Tuesday, November 26, 2019
As you can see in the above image, we have a MEDIUM risk of severe weather for this evening. Here are the bullet points, as of right now:
- TIMING: 5PM-Midnight
- High wind is the main threat.
- Isolated tornadoes are possible. They would be quick and fast, if they develop.
- Might see TWO rounds.
- Concerned about people traveling and people at basketball games.
- I am NOT saying to cancel anything. I just want people to stay informed.
- Ways to stay in formed:
- Region 8 app: Have notifications ON, Correct Warnings ON, Location services ON.
- TV: We will have constant updates on the bottom of the screen. We will be on air if any tornado warnings are issued OR damage starts being reported.
- Weather Radio: Test to make sure it works before the storms.
Let's look at little bit of data. This is what round 1 could look like. These storms would have decent dynamics and instability to work with. High wind aloft could be transported to the ground within storms:
The next round comes in between 9-12. I initially thought that this round would not have the instability or "energy" to cause problems. The latest data says otherwise. This map below shows the "energy" with the second round.
A second line of individual cells may develop with a ton of energy and dynamics to work with, so let's not let our guard down after the first round of storms.
Stay informed on the latest information with our app through the day. We'll have you covered.
Wednesday, November 20, 2019
As we have been mentioning for several days, we will see rain on Thursday and Friday. Here are my bullet points on this storm:
- No severe weather from this storm.
- 1-2" of rainfall likely.
- Most of the rain falls Thursday night into Friday morning.
- Breezy both days, 20-25 mph gusts.
- Gone by Saturday and Sunday.
So, the main question I have been getting from people is, "how much rain will we get?" Generally, the models have been showing 1-2", but some models have occasionally shown more and some have shown less. Here's a graph showing a couple of runs on 2 of the models:
All models are showing a swath of higher rainfall amounts across parts of Region 8 and they are in pretty good agreement on it's location. Take a look at this agreement:
Needless to say, we are confident in the rain. Pinpointing the EXACT location of the heaviest rain is the challenge. Keep an umbrella handy!
Sunday, November 10, 2019
- Most of tomorrow will be plain ole rain.
- Rain will start by lunchtime.
- It will end as wintry mix Monday evening.
- Any accumulations will be LIGHT: decks, grills, patio furniture. (DUSTING)
- Ends by 10-11 PM.
- No watches, warnings, or advisories right now.
- I would not be surprised to see some advisories as this unfolds.
- Missouri counties stand the best chance of getting accumulations.
- I'm telling my kids that they are going to school on Tuesday! They hope I'm wrong. LOL
Many locations will not see much accumulation and those that do will likely only have them on surfaces that are elevated. For example: decks, grills, patio furniture, and MAYBE grass. It would be pretty tough to get it to accumulate on roads.
Here's what to expect radar and temperatures to look like around 2PM. Most of us are rain, but a chilly rain:
Overall, a dusting is POSSIBLE, but not all will get it.
Stay tuned! I'll have new data, tonight on Region 8 News.