Sunday, July 19, 2015

Hot, But Not THAT Hot

It really has not been that hot this summer. I know many of you are throwing things at your phone and computer screen right now, but the reality of it is... it has not been that hot. In fact, if summer ended right now, it would be the summer with the coolest high temperature in 10 years:
If you look at the above graph, it shows that the highest temperature we have had so far this year is 97°. Yes, that is hot, but not as hot as we typically see as our hottest day of the year. Anyone recall 2011 when we went to 107°?

If we can make through the next few weeks, we MIGHT go a second year in a row without hitting 100°. That's pretty rare and an indication that the summer has not been that bad.

We will talk about rainfall in another blog post, but we are above normal on rainfall... so it has not been dry either!

Have a great week!
Ryan

Sunday, July 12, 2015

The Heat of 1980, 1901, and This Week...

When people talk about hot weather in Region 8, they mention the summer of 1980. In July of 1980, we had 18 days at 100° or above! If you click on the image below, you can see the handwritten climate log that documented this HOT month:

You have to go back to 1901 to find the hottest day in Jonesboro though. Below is July of 1901. It's the actual handwritten log from 114 years ago, by the Benedictine Sisters. It was 116° on this date in 1901:
As you can see, we are nowhere near record levels this week, despite the heat advisories. We will be hot all week and into next weekend, with temperatures at 4-7° above average. This is Saturday:
But relief is coming! It may take 9-10 days, but models are indicating that we should be 10-15° below average by next Wednesday:
So, drink a lot of water. Stay indoors, if you can... and let's make it through this week together!

#WeAreRegion8

Ryan

Monday, June 22, 2015

Mississippi River Is Rising In Region 8

If you have not seen some of the pics of the Mississippi River in SE Missouri, it is high! Robert Foote, a photographer from KFVS snapped this pic this morning in Cape Girardeau, where the water has risen 2 feet since Saturday morning:

The river level there is considered "major flood stage" and it is still rising. See graph:
So, that water is heading south and the river will continue to rise in Region 8. At this time, it appears that the water levels should stay BELOW major flood stage. Here is the forecast graph in Caruthersville:

Notice in the above image that the river will be about 5 feet higher this weekend. This is only considered minor flooding, so no need to worry too much at this time.

A little farther south, the river forecast is similar in Osceola. It's rising, but we are not too worried, at this time:

While the river stage forecasts are not overly alarming at this time, we will continue to watch them over the next week or so.

Have a great day!
Ryan

Friday, June 19, 2015

Heat Wave Coming!

Now that we have the remnants of Tropical Storm Bill leaving Region 8, it's time to start focusing on a heat wave for next week! A couple of notes:
  • This is NOT a record breaking heat wave for "high" temperatures.
  • HOWEVER, we could break a record for the "warmest low" temperatures.
  • Tuesday and Wednesday should be the hottest days.
The image below is the current upper-level pattern. There is an upper-level high sitting in southern California right now. That high pressure is moving our way:

Now, let's fast-forward to Tuesday when that ridge of high pressure is on top of Region 8:
The pattern seen in the above image is a HOT, summer pattern. Most of the south will be dominated by high pressure aloft. This means sinking air and very low rain chances. This also means the air will be "squeezed" causing what we call "compressional heating". The end result is high temperatures in the mid and upper 90s. Some parts of the state might even hit 100.

Don't worry, it appears we will get a little relief heading into next weekend as the ridge of high pressure retreats west. The image below is NEXT weekend... 8 days out:

Get ready to crank up the AC!
Ryan

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Breezy Bill

This evening we talked about the rainfall and wind that could come from the leftovers of Tropical Storm Bill on Thursday and Friday. I'm starting to be "a little" more concerned about the wind threat. First off, it will be NOTHING like we experienced with Hurricane Ike a few years back, but it could be breezy. This image shows the SUSTAINED winds could be in the 15-25 mph range:

Sustained winds are calculated by the average wind speed over a 10 minute period. However, there are occasionally higher "gusts". Wind "gusts" from Bill on Thursday into Friday could go into the 30-35 mph range according to some data this evening:
The track and timing of this storm is still questionable, so stay tuned to the Region 8 Storm Team as we fine tune the forecast over the next few days!

Ryan