Saturday, October 07, 2017

Hurricane Nate's Landfall

It's Saturday morning and Hurricane Nate is going to make landfall in less than 24 hours. It looks like Nate may make two landfalls. The first will be in SE Louisiana around midnight. The second will be Sunday morning on the Mississippi coast. Of course, the track may shift, too. Here's what the first landfall may look like on radar around midnight:
Notice in the above image that the heaviest rain will not extend too far from the center of the hurricane. This hurricane is not really large and will be moving fast. Excessive rainfall should not be an issue. Second landfall will come right before sunrise and radar could look like this:
At this time, I would not be surprised to see some tornado warnings near Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, and Pensacola. The center is where the strongest winds will be located. These next two images show the projected winds at both possible landfalls. Remember, this is in KNOTS:
As you can see, the hurricane force winds will not extend too far from the center of the hurricane, but the Mississippi Coastline will likely see extensive damage. Thankfully, it's a category ONE hurricane and not stronger. 

We will watch it closely, but it does not look to impact Region 8 too much.


Sunday, September 10, 2017

Irma Could Bring 35+ mph Winds To Region 8

The last thing rice farmers need right now is 35 mph wind gusts, but it may happen on Tuesday. For the past few days we have been tracking Hurricane Irma and it's possible impacts on Region 8. Unfortunately, it still looks to be coming this way. Here's the wind GUSTS (not sustained) projections for Tuesday at lunchtime. Notice the remnants of Irma will be in northern Mississippi and the light blue is 20+ KNOTS of wind. In MPH, all of the blue is 23+ mph. The LIGHT blue is 32 KNOTS which translates to about 36 mph:
As far as rainfall is concerned, some models give 1.00-1.50" of rain fall, but the European keeps most of the rain in TN, MS, and AL. Here's the total rain projections from the Euro:
I would plan on the worst case scenario, but hope for the best. Worst case scenario is 1.50" of rain and 40 mph winds. Everything decreases on Wednesday.

Stay with Region 8 News. We will be in the rice fields tomorrow for updates on Hurricane Irma as it moves closer to Region 8.


Saturday, September 09, 2017

Hurricane Irma Impacts on Region 8

By Tuesday, guidance is showing that the remnants of Irma will be east of us and increasing our rain chances. We WILL NOT see the amount of rain that we had with Hurricane Harvey. My greater concern is that wind gusts could go over 20 mph. Here are the expected sustained wind speeds on Tuesday:
If you notice in the above image, the SUSTAINED winds could be 10-20 mph. I'm thinking the wind GUSTS could kick up to 20-30 mph.

We will watch it closely.

Thursday, August 31, 2017

Harvey Is Here!

We have a had one heck of a rain band come through Region 8 this morning. This band is well ahead of the main storm system and has dropped 4-6 of rain in some isolated spots. As of 8:00 am, here are some of the rain totals so far:

Walnut Ridge 0.07"
Paragould: 0.24"
Jonesboro: 1.62" (with a big band of rain approaching)
Bay: 2.33"
Osceola: 2.73"
Trumann: 2.81"
Fisher: 3.36"
McCrory: 5.85"

We have some DEEP moisture that this rain band is working with and this could be the heaviest rain of the day. Let's hope so because it is already overachieving!

Let me show you a map that represents how much water content we have in the air. It's called "Precipitable Water". Notice the dark reds and pinks. That is deep, tropical moisture at 7AM this morning:
Notice that we get a little drier toward lunchtime in PARTS of Region 8, but you can clearly see the center of Harvey moving closer to us at this time. This is noon:
By the evening, the deep moisture is moving away from us:
This is why I think the heaviest rain for most of Region 8 is right now. Notice I said "most". Our SE and East counties are going to be in this tropical airmass most of the day. I still think West Memphis could get 6-8" of rain today. Watch for flooded roads today!

Dry weather for the weekend!

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

ARDOT Traffic Cameras. What About NE Arkansas?

For months, KATV meteorologist Todd Yakoubian and I have poked fun at ARDOT for being the LAST state in the United States to provide highway traffic cameras to the public. Most of these jabs have been done on Twitter and were mainly done to joke around with our friends at AHTD. They finally launched the cameras yesterday on their iDriveArkansas app. The cameras that have been installed look GREAT! The streaming video looks GREAT. The user interface looks GREAT. But...


If you look at their app, you will see a lot of cameras in central Arkansas:
You will also notice several cameras in NW Arkansas:

And there are a handful of cameras across other parts of the state, but what about NE Arkansas? Well... there's not much. In fact, the one camera in Region 8 launched as "temporarily unavailable"(UPDATE: This camera is now online):

And the cameras in Crittenden County on the app are owned by the Tennessee Highway Department and are not as good of quality as the cameras in Central and NW Arkansas:

Am I complaining? Yes. We pay taxes, too. There should be AT LEAST ONE camera on I555. I hope plans are in place to add cameras to the Jonesboro area soon.