Monday, February 24, 2020

Severe Weather Possible This Afternoon (2/24/2020)

We have a brief window of opportunity to see severe weather later today. Small hail will be the main threat, but large hail, gusty winds, and even a tornado is possible. Here are my bullet points and main takeaways:

  • Greatest risk is mid-afternoon. 
  • I'm expecting numerous "pea-sized hail" reports from these storms.
  • Gusty winds are possible.
  • 1-2 small, spin-up, fast-forming tornadoes will be possible.
  • School officials need to look at the weather situation before dismissing. Don't panic or change plans right now... just make sure there are no active warnings. 
  • Threat should be gone this evening.
Now let's talk about the details. As I type this, we are in the 40s. Temperatures are expected to warm into the 60s as a warm front continues to move north:
When we get between the warm front and the cold front, we will be in what we call the "warm sector". This is the area of concern where we will get unstable. This map below shows the instability. The parameter is called CAPE or Convective Available Potential Energy. Think of it as the fuel for severe weather. This map is just a snapshot from 3PM, so the threat will be moving west to east. Notice how it increases this afternoon:
When you breakdown more of the parameters, there are some products that try to pinpoint the risks. This map is a supercell index. Notice what it shows at 3PM. It's not crazy high, but worth bringing some concern. It could be much much worse.:
But, what most of you will be looking at is RADAR. This is a model projection of what radar could look like this afternoon. Remember, it is a model. Don't look at particular locations to pinpoint the supercells. Look at the pattern, the timing, the spacing, etc. A model is just giving you "an idea" of what could happen. It's not a prophet:
Stay weather aware this afternoon in case you get a warning at your location. Once again, this is a LOW risk.

Ryan

Tuesday, November 26, 2019

Severe Threat This Evening (Tuesday November 26, 2019)

As you can see in the above image, we have a MEDIUM risk of severe weather for this evening. Here are the bullet points, as of right now:
  • TIMING: 5PM-Midnight
  • High wind is the main threat.
  • Isolated tornadoes are possible. They would be quick and fast, if they develop.
  • Might see TWO rounds.
  • Concerned about people traveling and people at basketball games.
  • I am NOT saying to cancel anything. I just want people to stay informed.
  • Ways to stay in formed:
    • Region 8 app: Have notifications ON, Correct Warnings ON, Location services ON.
    • TV: We will have constant updates on the bottom of the screen. We will be on air if any tornado warnings are issued OR damage starts being reported.
    • Weather Radio: Test to make sure it works before the storms.
Let's look at  little bit of data. This is what round 1 could look like. These storms would have decent dynamics and instability to work with. High wind aloft could be transported to the ground within storms:
The next round comes in between 9-12. I initially thought that this round would not have the instability or "energy" to cause problems. The latest data says otherwise. This map below shows the "energy" with the second round. 
A second line of individual cells may develop with a ton of energy and dynamics to work with, so let's not let our guard down after the first round of storms.

Stay informed on the latest information with our app through the day. We'll have you covered.

Ryan

Wednesday, November 20, 2019

How Much Rain?: November 21-22

As we have been mentioning for several days, we will see rain on Thursday and Friday. Here are my bullet points on this storm:
  • No severe weather from this storm.
  • 1-2" of rainfall likely.
  • Most of the rain falls Thursday night into Friday morning.
  • Breezy both days, 20-25 mph gusts.
  • Gone by Saturday and Sunday.
So, the main question I have been getting from people is, "how much rain will we get?" Generally, the models have been showing 1-2", but some models have occasionally shown more and some  have shown less. Here's a graph showing a couple of runs on 2 of the models: 
All models are showing a swath of higher rainfall amounts across parts of Region 8 and they are in pretty good agreement on it's location. Take a look at this agreement:



Needless to say, we are confident in the rain. Pinpointing the EXACT location of the heaviest rain is the challenge. Keep an umbrella handy!

Ryan


Sunday, November 10, 2019

UPDATE: Monday's Rain To Snow

Milk and bread are still safe, but I've nudged the PANICOMETER up a little. If you are going out Monday evening, I would allow a little extra time. While most of this storm system will be RAIN, there will be a brief changeover to a wintry mix and snow on Monday evening. Keep in mind, I would suggest to allow extra time even if it just stayed rain! Here are bullet points this evening:

  • Most of tomorrow will be plain ole rain.
  • Rain will start by lunchtime.
  • It will end as wintry mix Monday evening.
  • Any accumulations will be LIGHT: decks, grills, patio furniture. (DUSTING)
  • Ends by 10-11 PM.
  • No watches, warnings, or advisories right now.
  • I would not be surprised to see some advisories as this unfolds.
  • Missouri counties stand the best chance of getting accumulations.
  • I'm telling my kids that they are going to school on Tuesday! They hope I'm wrong. LOL

Many locations will not see much accumulation and those that do will likely only have them on surfaces that are elevated. For example: decks, grills, patio furniture, and MAYBE grass. It would be pretty tough to get it to accumulate on roads.

Here's what to expect radar and temperatures to look like around 2PM. Most of us are rain, but a chilly rain:
By 6PM, the colder air starts to mix some sleet and snow into the rain in spots. But, look at the temperatures. It's tough for anything to stick when you're above freezing:
Here's one models output on snowfall potential. This is the European model:
Overall, a dusting is POSSIBLE, but not all will get it. 

Stay tuned! I'll have new data, tonight on Region 8 News. 

Friday, November 08, 2019

Snow looking LESS likely on Monday...

Monday is not looking like a big deal, even if we see a few flurries or brief light snow on the tail end of the rain. I kept telling people not to get too excited. This is also why we kept the Panicometer at the lowest level. It's just not the type of setup that yields much snow. BUT, we are still expecting a a few snowflakes.

It just doesn't look like the cold air will catch up to the moisture:
Sure, we are going to see SOME snowflakes, which is always crazy in November, but no problems are expected on the roads. It is still going to be BRUTALLY cold next! Lows will drop into the low to mid 20s again. Get ready for that.

Also, bundle up tonight for football!

Ryan