Tuesday, May 12, 2015

River Updates!

Many of you have asked about river updates, so let's break down some of the area rivers. Let's start on the White River in Batesville. This pic came to me late today from @TomaceniaM on Twitter:
And this pic came from @03msc:
As you can see, the water on the White River is quite high, but it appears that it may have crested and is heading down now. Below is a graph of the river stage and it's projected stage this week (dotted line):

The Black River has not crested yet! Below is a graph of the Black River at Black Rock. It appears that it will crest tomorrow:
And finally, the Black River at Pocahontas. It also looks to crest late tomorrow at 17 feet, which is considered to be minor flood stage:
Thankfully, we will be dry for the next couple of days to allow the rivers to drain a little! We'll keep you posted on the projected river stages!

Take care,
Ryan

Monday, May 11, 2015

Lots of Rain!

I'm blogging from phone today, so I'm not sure if this will come out right...

We have had a ton of rain across Region 8. The areas in blue and yellow are where radar estimates 7-9" of rain from this weekend!

As you can see in the above image, most of Region 8 got excessive rainfall. Rivers will be rising this week. In fact, the Black River is rising faster than forecasted already: 
I am going to write another blog later today about the rising river levels. Let's see how they respond to the rainfall as we go through the day and the updated forecast river stages will be available later today, too.

Stay dry!
Ryan

Tuesday, May 05, 2015

Here Comes the MUGGY!

So far, the mugginess has not been that bad across Region 8. This morning, the dewpoints are in the 50s. If you recall, the dewpoint is a measure of moisture in the atmosphere. The higher the number, the muggier it is outside. We typically do not start feeling the mugginess until this number gets into the 60s:
The mugginess will start creeping up over the next few days. These next 2 maps show what the dewpoint will do over the next 48 hours. The yellows indicate dewpoints in the 50s and the greens indicate the dewpoints above 60. The first map is this morning and the second map is Thursday morning:

You can clearly see the surge of more moisture moving north. If you plot the dewpoints from several computer model runs, you can also see the upward trend:

Now, while the dewpoint is rising over the next few days, it's still not as bad as what it could be in Region 8. Later in the year, this number will be in the 70s... and sometimes close to 80!

Have a great week!
Ryan

Sunday, April 19, 2015

Timing, Threats, and Concerns of Severe Weather This Evening

This is a quick update because I want to eat lunch with my family and I need to get to work. Here are my thoughts at noon today:
  • This is not a major outbreak, but we still need to watch these storms carefully.
  • Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threat.
  • Tornadoes are possible and having 1-2 tornadoes in Arkansas today is quite possible.
  • The window of time for the greatest threat is between 6-10PM for Region 8.
  • The severe weather threat should be gone for Region 8 by 11PM.
  • Tomorrow will be dry and cooler
Here's what radar may look like at 8PM. This is the HRRR model:
Follow me on Twitter at @ryanvaughan and we will have more updates through the day!

Ryan

Friday, April 17, 2015

Severe Storms Possible On Sunday

We're still a couple of days away from the chance of severe storms, but I wanted everyone to be on guard before we started the weekend. Here's our thoughts, as of 7:30 am on Friday morning:

  • Storms and heavy rain is likely on Saturday, but severe weather is not expected. Best chance of rain will be later in the day.
  • SUNDAY is the day we are most concerned about, at this time.
  • The greatest risk appears to be after 4:00 PM, with the peak between 7:00 PM and 10:00 PM.
  • Damaging, straight-line winds will be the greatest threat.
  • Large hail is possible.
  • Tornadoes are possible.
  • Storms should move out of Region 8 before midnight.
As of right now, this is our severe weather outlook from KAIT:

The above map may change through the weekend. In fact, we may bump some areas into the higher risk. This is what radar could look like on Sunday evening:


Follow us through the weekend on Twitter, Facebook, and on the KAIT weather App. The blog is on the App.

I will be traveling over the weekend to cheer on several Region 8 kids that are in the state competition of Odyssey of the Mind (including my own!). I will try to update the blog from the road and will update on Twitter. Watch Andrew Wilson on KAIT for the latest information, also.

If severe storms do occur on Sunday evening, all of us will be working to give you updates through the night.

As time permits, I will likely write a more technical blog for those that are weather geeks later today.

-Ryan