Monday, July 18, 2016

Hot Week Ahead!

The data is in agreement that a strong upper-level ridge will cover a large part of the United State this week. Widespread 95°-100° is likely in Region 8. The above graphic shows the placement of the upper-high mid-week.

In addition to high temperatures, the dewpoints will also be high. This will lead to heat indices between 105°-112°. Here are the projected heat indices on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday across Region 8:
You've likely lived here long enough to know how to take care of yourself, but don't forget those that can't remember the steps they need to take to stay cool. Check on the elderly, kids, and pets. Check the app for the current temperature and heat index through the week. Have a great week and stay cool.

Ryan


Sunday, July 03, 2016

Timing of Storms Today

Good Sunday morning, everyone! Like many of you, my family has outdoor plans today. We are planning to float the river today, but I'm starting to think we may not beat the storms. It's going to be a last minute call! Anywho, let's talk about the threats and timing of the storms today. Here are the bullet points:

  • The areas with the best chance of storms today will be in our northern and northwestern parts of Region 8. See map below.
  • The greatest risk is lightning and gusty winds. Some hail is possible, like yesterday.
  • Storms should weaken by the evening.
  • Turn on your notifications to get the First Alert to approaching storms.
Let's dive into the details. First, here's where we think the greatest risk of severe weather will be today. Notice, it's a LOW to MEDIUM risk. Let's not panic. Some parts of Region 8 have NO risk of severe weather:
The storms will arrive near Lake Norfork first. Yesterday, a strong storm impacted Lake Norfork and that could happen again today. Don't cancel your plans, just have a way to take shelter as the storms pass through. Let's breakdown the timing:

Possible radar at 2:00PM:
Storms will continue to move into Region 8. Here's the possible radar image at 4:00 PM:
By the evening hours, these storms may start weakening. This is great news for the communities that will have fireworks tonight. We will watch radar closely. Here's 7:00 PM:
Once again, have a way to get weather information today. I'm not canceling my plans, so their may be a 4-5 hour window when I won't be tracking the storms, but Rachel Coulter will be keeping you updated! Find her on Twitter and Facebook.

Have a great day!
Ryan

Friday, July 01, 2016

Holiday Weekend Severe Storms

I'm not wanting anyone to cancel their plans, but I DO want you to make sure that you are watching for updates on our app. Region 8 could have some strong storms this weekend, especially on Sunday and Monday. Here are my thoughts right now:

  • Saturday looks "mostly" dry.
  • Sunday's greatest rain chances will come late in the day and mainly confined to areas NW of Jonesboro. (Sharp, Fulton, Baxter, Izard, Stone, Howell, Oregon counties and surrounding areas)
  • If you are going to Lake Norfork or Bull Shoals Lake, pay close attention to the weather. Especially on Sunday afternoon and evening.
  • On Monday, everyone in Region 8 has a chance of storms. They will not last all day, so just have a Plan B.
  • Greatest threat on Sunday and Monday will be lightning and gusty winds.
  • Tornado threat is very LOW.
  • New data will continue to come in... When I know something new, YOU will know something new.
Let's dig into some data. You can have "thunderstorm energy" or CAPE and not have storms. That happens a lot in the summer due to the hot temperatures. However, when you have something to trigger these storms, it changes the game. This weekend, we have a lingering front and some upper-level energy that will spark off some thunderstorms. At this time, I'm mainly concerned with Sunday and Monday. Here's the CAPE (thunderstorm energy) on Sunday PM and the projected rainfall:
This is why I'm concerned about storms near the lakes late on Sunday. Do not cancel your plans, but make sure the notifications are turned ON for the Storm TRACK 8 app. We will keep you updated.

Heading into July 4th (Monday), the coverage of the storms increases. Here's a model of rainfall coverage on July 4th. Don't look at specifics, but rather the general theme of the coverage:
Make sure you have a plan B on Monday and make sure the notifications are turned on for the Storm TRACK 8 app. If you have the location services turned on, our app will also warn you about lightning nearby. The storms on the 4th of July will also have quite a bit of energy to work with, so take them seriously:

I am not canceling my plans, but will be watching radar closely. I hope to see all of you at the Southside Softball Complex on Monday night for Freedom Fest! Remember, follow me on TWITTER for the latest updates at @ryanvaughan

Ryan 

Wednesday, June 29, 2016

From Wet To Dry, But Wet is Close!

May of 2016 was the WETTEST May on record for Jonesboro. So far this June, we have had 0.54" of rainfall at the Jonesboro airport. That makes it the 5th DRIEST June on record and almost 3" below average! Rain chances today and tomorrow are very low, so that data may stand for the month. In case you wondered what the DRIEST June was in Jonesboro, it was the dreadful June of 1952. THAT was a rough summer! Click image to enlarge June 1952 log:
Today, we have some VERY nice air moving into Region 8. While it feels good, we still need some rain. I'm thankful for the few storms we have seen over the last few days because I was afraid we were going to start seeing more burn bans issued prior to the 4th of July celebrations. That would have been a bummer.

Over the next few days, a corridor of showers and storms will setup. This setup will be JUST north of Region 8. While I think we will see some showers and storms, the heaviest rain may stay closer to I44. Here's one model's 7 day rainfall forecast (Euro):
 We will watch this pattern unfold over the next few days. As you look at this animation of the available moisture, you will notice that the deeper moisture does nudge into Region 8, briefly. That's why we have some rain chances:
Stay tuned because we may see some storms on the 4th of July!
Ryan

Monday, June 06, 2016

VERY WET Year!



Now that we are starting to dry out, I have time to reflect back on the year we have had so far. It has been VERY WET. Take a look at some of these statistics from 2016:

  • We have had 32.91" so far this year. That's 11.13" ABOVE average.
  • March 2016 was the WETTEST March on record at 13.22".
  • March 2016 was the 5th overall wettest month on record.
  • May 2016 was the WETTEST May on record at 10.82".
  • On May 24th, Jonesboro had 6.19" of rainfall, which made it the WETTEST DAY ON RECORD. The previous record was 9/1/1922. Here's an old climate log from 1922:

I'm glad that we are dry this week and I'm looking forward to summer. Rachel and I are doing some early research on the fall and winter months. Our early indications show that it could be active. Not a fan of that!

Ryan