Wednesday, July 05, 2017

WET 2017 So Far... For Most.

The above map is a "rough" estimate of the departure from mean precipitation for 2017. Parts of Region 8 are ONE FOOT above average on precipitation this year! If you think it has been WET, you're right. The SE parts of Region 8 are much closer to average. Here are the numbers for a few cities in Region 8, as of July 5th, 2017:

Jonesboro (COOP site):
2017: 35.15" Average: 25.33"

Paragould:
2017: 38.02" Average: 25.82"

Pocahontas
2017: 34.17" Average: 24.78"

Corning
2017: 34.28" Average: 24.47"

Wynne
2017: 27.03" Average: 27.09"

Blytheville
2017: 22.81" Average: 25.71"

Mountain Home
2017: 29.07" Average: 21.41"

Salem
2017: 35.65" Average: 24.60"

Hopefully we dry out soon!
Ryan

Thursday, June 22, 2017

Cindy Is Coming To Region 8!

Tropical Storm Cindy has come inland near the TX/LA border and is moving our way. Here are the bullet points on this Thursday morning:

  • Rain increases today. Mainly scattered at first.
  • Rain and wind increase by Friday morning
  • The center of Cindy should pass between Jonesboro and Memphis.
  • Some isolated locations could see over 4" of rain over the next 48 hours.
  • Pinpointing the exact location of the heaviest rainfall 24 hours out is almost impossible.
  • Wind gusts in Region 8 should be between 20-30 mph.
  • Strongest winds will be in MS and TN where wind gusts could go over 40 mph.
  • Western parts of Region 8 may not even get an inch!
Let's dig into the details. First, I want to talk about the track of the storm. Since yesterday, I've been mentioning that the center is likely to be a little closer than the official NHC track. That means we have a little higher chance of excessive rainfall. I'm still not overly concerned about the wind until you go into TN and MS. Here's 3 models showing the possible path and winds:


There's not much variability in the path, but worth noting. The next thing is rainfall. For farming, I have heard that we need some rain... but, not too much. Generally speaking, most places will get UNDER 4", but with deep tropical moisture, I have a feeling that there will be a small area that gets a little more. This will be near the center of the storm, where heavy rain develops and just rotates over the same spot. Here's some model solutions on rainfall. Notice that they show some small areas seeing over 4". Don't focus on the exact locations, but rather the trend.:

The one thing that concerns me about the rainfall is that we are going to have some DEEP TROPICAL moisture moving through! It's much different than what we typically have in Region 8. These next maps show Precipitable Water. Think of it as a measure of how much water we are working with.... The pink area (deep moisture) moves in tomorrow, but dry air moves in Saturday:



We know it is going to rain. We know it could be heavy in spots. We know that it will be breezy. We will watch the specifics and update you on air, on our app, and on social media through the storm.

Ryan

Saturday, May 27, 2017

Severe Storms Today (5/27)

I'm up early this morning to watch a few storms that have been severe. While these storms are loud and are waking a people up too early on a Saturday morning, they are not as bad as what we are expecting tonight. Here are some bullet points:

  • The morning storms should be out of Region 8 by 8AM
  • The rest of the daytime hours look mostly dry. 
  • The air becomes VERY unstable through the day.
  • A line of severe storms will start moving into our northern counties about 7:00 PM
  • The line will be moving through the heart of Region 8 about 10:00.
Here's how radar might look about 7:00 PM:
By 9:00 PM, the line is moving through with high winds, lots of lightning, hail... and the low chance of a tornado:
As I mentioned, the air is going to be VERY unstable. CAPE measures the amount of energy available for the storms. This is the highest I have seen it this year:
CAPE is not the only ingredient needed for severe weather. Other parameters are not as great, but still enough to support a severe weather event.

Stay tuned!
Ryan

Wednesday, May 24, 2017

Severe Weather Possible: Memorial Day Weekend

First off, I think we are going to salvage a lot of the weekend. If you have outdoor plans, you will want to watch the TIMING of the storms, but don't cancel your plans. Here are the bullet points as of today (5/24/17):

  • A few spotty storms are possible on Friday evening, but we are not too worried about these storms and anything that develops should not last long.
  • On Saturday, most of the day will be dry.
  • The greatest threat is Saturday EVENING.
  • Greatest threat: STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
  • Hail is possible
  • Tornado threat is LOW.
  • A lot of Sunday AFTERNOON may be dry. 
  • Memorial Day looks dry.
So, let's dig into some specifics. Remember, we are still FOUR days out and this forecast may change a little. As of now, here's where I think the greatest risk will be on Saturday and Saturday night:


For us in Region 8, we may see several hours of dry weather on Saturday. The latest data shows that most of the rain between 1PM and 7PM will be north and west of us:
Later Saturday evening and Saturday night, a strong complex of storms will likely develop and move through Region 8. Data is suggesting that these storms could have gusty winds and heavy rain. 1.00" of rain or more is possible. Here's the projected precipitation from 7PM to 1AM:
When these storms are moving through, they will have a lot of energy to work with and severe weather is possible. The air will be very unstable. Here's the "supercell index" from Pivotal Weather. This does NOT show where the storms will be, but where the ingredients are coming together for strong storms:
I think we will still have some leftover showers on Sunday morning, but Sunday afternoon is looking mostly dry. It also looks dry on Memorial Day. My greatest concern will be people camping on Saturday night. I'm NOT telling you to cancel, but MAKE SURE you have a way to get warnings and a plan in place for storms that have the potential for winds over 60 mph.

Ryan

Monday, May 01, 2017

Monday Morning River Updates

I'm going to summarize SOME of the rivers in Region 8:

Current River:
  • At Doniphan, it is still rising and is 6 feet over the record high.
  • Forecast is for it to rise about 4 more feet today and crest.
  • This water flows south and will greatly impact Randolph and Clay Counties.
  • This river flows into the Black River.

Black River:
  • The water is almost at a record high in Poplar Bluff.
  • It's expected to crest today at 22' and start going down.
  • The levels at Pocahontas are probably the most concerning.
  • The water is rising and is expected to be at MAJOR flood stage Tuesday night.
  • Record breaking flooding is expected by Friday morning.
  • If this happens, it would be worse than 2011.
  • Remember, the behavior of the water may be different because of new levees.
  • The Black River at Black Rock is already at MAJOR flood stage and rising.
  • It's expected to crest today, but stay in major flood stage through the week.
Eleven Point River:
  • The Eleven Point River feeds the Spring River, which feeds into the Black River.
  • It has already crested and heading down. 
  • It almost broke a record.
Spring River at Hardy:
  • It feeds the Black River.
  • The Spring River typically rises quickly and falls quickly.
  • This event is not different and it's already falling.
  • It hit major flood stage on Sunday and is already down to minor flood stage.
White River at Calico Rock:
  • The water at Calico Rock went up FAST as expected yesterday.
  • It's starting to fall now and should fall below major flood stage soon.
  • This may change due to dam release.
White River at Batesville:
  • White River at Batesville is still rising, but should crest today.
  • It will fall to minor flood stage by the weekend.
  • This may change due to dam release.
These rivers stages are the most concerning, but NOAA is updating all points on this website: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=meg 

I'll be LIVE in the flooding this evening. Stay with Region 8 News.

Ryan