Friday, December 02, 2016

St. Jude Marathon / Half-Marathon / 5K Forecast

Many people are running in the St. Jude race this weekend and all eyes are on the weather. I know some of you that are running will pack a few extra things if there is a chance of rain. The data has been going back and forth on the start time of the rainfall, but I'm confident enough that there will at least be some showers... so I wanted to give everyone a head's up. At this time, it looks like there will be some LIGHT showers in the area near the start of the race. The heavier showers will likely stay south of the city:
In addition to some light showers, it's going to be a little chilly. We've started this race in the past in the teens, so low to mid 40s will not be that bad. HOWEVER, if there are some light showers, it will feel colder to wet skin:
Don't panic too much about the rain. At least it's not thunderstorms! Have a great race, enjoy your time on the course, and remember that you are helping kids!

Have a great weekend,

Saturday, November 26, 2016

Soggy Monday

Monday looks soggy, regardless of the data you choose. If you work outside on Monday afternoon, it will be raining. If you wait in car lines across Region 8, it will be wet Monday afternoon. Here are my thoughts as of Saturday morning:

  • Clouds increase on Sunday.
  • Spotty showers start Monday morning.
  • Coverage and intensity increases at lunch time on Monday.
  • Rain ends by 10:00 PM for most locations.
  • 1-3" of rainfall is possible.
  • Severe weather threat is LOW, but most likely between 5:00-8:00 PM if any severe storms develop.
  • With so many leaves falling, street flooding is possible because of clogged storm drains.
I'm off work for a few days, but Rachel and Justin have you covered. I'm in town and on standby in case some of the storms don't behave.


Wednesday, November 23, 2016

First Alert: Heavy Rain Event Possible

It just stopped raining at my house and now we are looking ahead to the next storm to impact Region 8. Last night we picked up 1.05" at my house and we could see MUCH more Monday Night into Tuesday! Here are my bullet points, as of nowt:

  • Main threat will be flash flooding
  • Severe weather threat is very low.
  • Models are in agreement that SOMEONE will get heavy rainfall, but amounts and locations are still questionable.
  • Timing is Monday Night into Tuesday.
A front is going to hang up across Region 8 early next week and 2 lows will move across the front to give us some heavy rainfall. Data has varying amounts, but all agree that many parts of Region 8 receive a lot of rain. Here are two of the most widely used models showing the rainfall amounts:
 We will watch this storm system closely and give you updates throughout the holiday weekend. Tune in between your feasts! Have a great Thanksgiving! God Bless and be safe! -Ryan

Sunday, November 13, 2016

Coldest Morning In 200-250 Days! But Something Looked Odd...

If you looked at the temperature map this morning, you may have noticed that some areas were warmer than others."Oddly" the warmer spots were the "higher elevations". We have grown up always knowing that mountains are colder than valleys. The higher elevations are typically colder due to difference in pressure and lapse rates. What we saw this morning was a different mechanism. Actually, we could see TWO mechanisms making for warmer areas.

First was the warmer temperatures we saw on Crowley's Ridge. Temperatures ranged from 35-38° along the ridge, while areas around the ridge were 27-31°. This was some of the coldest air in 255 days! The reason that the ridge was warmer was because colder air is "heavier" and flows off of the ridge into the flat lands. There is not enough of an elevation drop to have the air heat up through compressional heating. Therefore, the ridge is warmer. I also think vegetation along the ridge is a factor to be considered. Most fields are dirt right now with no vegetation.

Second was the warmer air in Memphis. The warmer air in Memphis was due to the "urban heat island". The warmer concrete and buildings keep the temperatures up. Temperatures in an urban area can typically run 5-8° warmer than the surrounding locations.

Most of us had a good frost and many of us had a hard freeze. Say bye-bye to allergies and mosquitoes!


Saturday, October 29, 2016

1950: A Hot Halloween and SNOW on Thanksgiving

On Monday, we have a forecast high of 86°. If we hit 86°, it will have the hottest Halloween since 1900! If we only hit 85°, we will have the hottest Halloween since 1950. Here's an old climate log from October of 1950:

While looking at the old climate logs from 1950, I noticed something interesting! Even though it was HOT on Halloween, it SNOWED on Thanksgiving! Not only did it snow, but we had SINGLE-DIGIT lows in November of 1950. Look:

 In other words, don't let the warm October fool yah! Winter is coming soon! <evil laugh>