Monday, June 06, 2016

VERY WET Year!



Now that we are starting to dry out, I have time to reflect back on the year we have had so far. It has been VERY WET. Take a look at some of these statistics from 2016:

  • We have had 32.91" so far this year. That's 11.13" ABOVE average.
  • March 2016 was the WETTEST March on record at 13.22".
  • March 2016 was the 5th overall wettest month on record.
  • May 2016 was the WETTEST May on record at 10.82".
  • On May 24th, Jonesboro had 6.19" of rainfall, which made it the WETTEST DAY ON RECORD. The previous record was 9/1/1922. Here's an old climate log from 1922:

I'm glad that we are dry this week and I'm looking forward to summer. Rachel and I are doing some early research on the fall and winter months. Our early indications show that it could be active. Not a fan of that!

Ryan

Sunday, May 08, 2016

Severe Weather On Monday

At KAIT, we have a simple scale to convey the severe weather threat: Low, Medium, High, and Extreme. Many times, it looks similar to the Storm Prediction Center, because they are a very useful agency to seek guidance on during severe weather forecasting. The category names are different than our outlook because we feel that the risk categories can be better communicated. I bring this up every so often because we occasionally have questions about the severe weather threat maps. Sometimes, we will have a "high risk" on our maps and in our forecasts when the SPC does not... and vice versa. You will rarely see extreme. We may have used it once or twice. Here's where we think the threats are tomorrow (Monday);

Let's dig into the details with bullet points:

  • The severe weather threat is higher west of Region 8.
  • The threat for Region 8 will be late in the day and tomorrow night.
  • Damaging winds appear to be the main threat.
  • Hail is possible.
  • Nighttime tornadoes are possible.
This does not appear to be a "shield" of heavy rain coming in tomorrow, so rainfall amounts will vary greatly. I think we will have tornado watches by tomorrow afternoon and evening for parts of Region 8. I think there will be 2-3 super-cells that we will be tracking tomorrow night which will bring the bulk of any warnings.

Here's StormCAST for this evening when the main threat is in Oklahoma and Kansas:

Tomorrow morning, we may have a few showers, but storms are unlikely:

By dinnertime tomorrow evening, storms move in:

And by the late evening, strong storms moving through:


We will track it closely! Don't panic, but prepare for a few disruptions to plans for some people tomorrow night.

Ryan

Tuesday, April 26, 2016

Severe Weather Tonight and Tomorrow

As I type this blog at 8:35 AM, there are severe storms in the Kansas City area. We will have to track these storms all day until they arrive in Region 8 this evneing. Another round of storms comes after midnight... and maybe another tomorrow afternoon. Here are the storms that are ongoing and the track they will likely take today:
The storms in Kansas City have had some hail! Here are the most likely places to have seen hail over the past hour:

Here are some bullet points about the next 36 hours:

  • The storms in the Kansas City area will be here this evening, but will be weakening as the move into Region 8 (I hope). These storms will have some gusty winds and maybe some hail.
  • Severe storms will develop in the southern plains this evening and a severe weather outbreak is possible in Oklahoma and Kansas. These storms will weaken and move into Region 8 between midnight and daybreak. Even though they are weakening, they could be severe.
  •  If the atmosphere can recover from the storms in the morning, we may see an other round in the afternoon. IF the storms in the afternoon develop, they could be severe.
Here's the severe weather threat level today:

Here are the individual severe weather probabilities from the Storm Prediction Center for today:



Follow me on Twitter for updates through the day and the StormTRACK 8 App.

Sunday, April 24, 2016

Severe Storms This Week

Simply put, we could have strong to severe storms this week. I think the focal point will be Wednesday. Here are my bullet points for the week ahead:

  • The atmosphere becomes unstable through the day on Monday, but I'm not expecting much coverage on Monday. A little more possible on Monday night.
  • Tuesday, the atmosphere will be very unstable with a front to the north. I'm more concerned about large hail than tornadoes on Tuesday.
  • Wednesday still looks to be the main show. We have been warning about Wednesday for days. Don't panic or worry. We have been in this setup before and been fine, but it is a setup that has produced tornadoes in the past.
  • Thursday still looks unstable, but since the cold front has passed and the dynamics have move past us, it should be mainly a hail and wind threat.
  • This week, flooding should not be a problem. If there is a problem, it will be isolated. 
I'm off work today, but Rachel will break down the latest details tonight. Now is the time to make sure you have the notifications turned on for the StormTRACK 8 app. Now is the time to review your severe weather plan with your family.

I'll be doing a Facebook Live video at some point tonight. Make sure you subscribe to my Facebook page notifications and it will alert your phone: https://www.facebook.com/ryanvaughanweather/ 

Ryan

Wednesday, April 20, 2016

Next Week Looks Active

The pattern next week looks like one that could produce severe weather in the southern plains to Region 8. You may have noticed that we are using some new graphics in some of our newscasts. We are testing some new equipment that has some data not available to us for "on air use" over the past few years. This map shows "CAPE" or convective available potential energy. This is the energy or fuel for storms. Notice that it GREATLY increases in the southern plains on Tuesday:
That unstable air moves east on Wednesday and could impact Region 8. It's very early, but severe weather is possible next week. It could start as early as Monday, but I'm most concerned with Wednesday. Stay tuned!

Ryan