Wednesday, May 24, 2017

Severe Weather Possible: Memorial Day Weekend

First off, I think we are going to salvage a lot of the weekend. If you have outdoor plans, you will want to watch the TIMING of the storms, but don't cancel your plans. Here are the bullet points as of today (5/24/17):

  • A few spotty storms are possible on Friday evening, but we are not too worried about these storms and anything that develops should not last long.
  • On Saturday, most of the day will be dry.
  • The greatest threat is Saturday EVENING.
  • Greatest threat: STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
  • Hail is possible
  • Tornado threat is LOW.
  • A lot of Sunday AFTERNOON may be dry. 
  • Memorial Day looks dry.
So, let's dig into some specifics. Remember, we are still FOUR days out and this forecast may change a little. As of now, here's where I think the greatest risk will be on Saturday and Saturday night:


For us in Region 8, we may see several hours of dry weather on Saturday. The latest data shows that most of the rain between 1PM and 7PM will be north and west of us:
Later Saturday evening and Saturday night, a strong complex of storms will likely develop and move through Region 8. Data is suggesting that these storms could have gusty winds and heavy rain. 1.00" of rain or more is possible. Here's the projected precipitation from 7PM to 1AM:
When these storms are moving through, they will have a lot of energy to work with and severe weather is possible. The air will be very unstable. Here's the "supercell index" from Pivotal Weather. This does NOT show where the storms will be, but where the ingredients are coming together for strong storms:
I think we will still have some leftover showers on Sunday morning, but Sunday afternoon is looking mostly dry. It also looks dry on Memorial Day. My greatest concern will be people camping on Saturday night. I'm NOT telling you to cancel, but MAKE SURE you have a way to get warnings and a plan in place for storms that have the potential for winds over 60 mph.

Ryan

Monday, May 01, 2017

Monday Morning River Updates

I'm going to summarize SOME of the rivers in Region 8:

Current River:
  • At Doniphan, it is still rising and is 6 feet over the record high.
  • Forecast is for it to rise about 4 more feet today and crest.
  • This water flows south and will greatly impact Randolph and Clay Counties.
  • This river flows into the Black River.

Black River:
  • The water is almost at a record high in Poplar Bluff.
  • It's expected to crest today at 22' and start going down.
  • The levels at Pocahontas are probably the most concerning.
  • The water is rising and is expected to be at MAJOR flood stage Tuesday night.
  • Record breaking flooding is expected by Friday morning.
  • If this happens, it would be worse than 2011.
  • Remember, the behavior of the water may be different because of new levees.
  • The Black River at Black Rock is already at MAJOR flood stage and rising.
  • It's expected to crest today, but stay in major flood stage through the week.
Eleven Point River:
  • The Eleven Point River feeds the Spring River, which feeds into the Black River.
  • It has already crested and heading down. 
  • It almost broke a record.
Spring River at Hardy:
  • It feeds the Black River.
  • The Spring River typically rises quickly and falls quickly.
  • This event is not different and it's already falling.
  • It hit major flood stage on Sunday and is already down to minor flood stage.
White River at Calico Rock:
  • The water at Calico Rock went up FAST as expected yesterday.
  • It's starting to fall now and should fall below major flood stage soon.
  • This may change due to dam release.
White River at Batesville:
  • White River at Batesville is still rising, but should crest today.
  • It will fall to minor flood stage by the weekend.
  • This may change due to dam release.
These rivers stages are the most concerning, but NOAA is updating all points on this website: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=meg 

I'll be LIVE in the flooding this evening. Stay with Region 8 News.

Ryan

Saturday, April 29, 2017

Flooding Problems Have Started!

Update at 9:00 PM 4/29/2017:

This could get serious! Bryant Creek and North Fork White River feed Lake Norfork. Bryant Creek just broke a record for it's highest level and White River near Tecumseh is well on it's way! See graphs from NOAA:

Lake Norfork is now rising rapidly. It has risen a couple of feet in the past couple of hours:
In addition to concerns on Lake Norfork and the White River, I'm worried about the Black River and Current River. We are waiting to see just how much rain falls in those basins, but a ton of water has already fallen north of that basin. I expect MAJOR FLOOD STAGE along the Black River in the coming days as the water drains. Region 8 weather watcher Jason Hampton lives up there and knows those rivers well. I'll continue to check in with him over the next few days. 

Ryan

When Will It Rain and How Much?

Outside of a few isolated showers, Region 8 stayed mostly dry last night. The model above (GFS) showed 2-4" of rain for Region 8... which that simply did not happen.

We knew this was a possibility because some data suggested that we would stay capped, with the heaviest rain being north of Region 8. That's exactly what happened:
 So, maybe this model (NAM) is going to handle this entire weekend forecast better. I sure hope so because it only gives us 1-2" of rainfall:
Now, could we still see 3-4" of rain under areas that see stronger storms?... YEAH! Don't let your guard down. The higher resolution WRF shows that isolated streaks of 3-4" of rainfall will be possible, but it does not look widespread until you get into Missouri:

Even if we do not have 5" of rain area-wide, we are still going to have river flooding because of all of the rainfall in Missouri. We will be watching river levels closely for you!

To summarize:

  • The rain increases late today.
  • Most areas will likely see 1-2" of rainfall.
  • I think the flash flooding risk is low.
  • Isolated areas will see 3-4" in stronger storms.
  • Severe weather is possible with hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.
  • Rivers will flood. 

Thursday, April 27, 2017

Fake Tornado Reports Are Not Funny

For anyone that knows me, they know that I have pulled some pranks. My friends know that I will do anything to make them laugh or smile. The guy who posted this picture to Facebook last night was probably trying to do the same thing. I get it. But, posting fake tornado reports is not funny. It's dangerous. It creates false panic. And, it wastes time for those trying to warn people in the line of storms. The pic above was NOT from Region 8 yesterday. It is a picture from Marshall Brozek in Moore, OK in 2013. Let me explain more about the picture above:

Its' a picture of a tornado that killed 25 people in Moore, Oklahoma on May 20th, 2013:
NWS-Norman
It's the picture of a tornado that killed kids, pregnant mothers, dads, sons, and daughters. Here are their names, ages, and links to their lives:
Terri Long – 49
Megan Futrell – 29
Case Futrell – 4 months
Shannon Quick – 40
Sydnee Vargyas – 7 months
Karrina Vargyas – 4
Jeany Neely – 38
Antonia Candelaria – 9
Kyle Davis – 8
Janae Hornsby – 9
Sydney Angle – 9
Emily Conatzer -9
Nicolas McCabe – 9
Christopher Legg – 9
Cindy Plumley – 45
Deanna Ward – 70
Rick Jones – 54
William Sass – 63
Gina Stromski – 51
Tewauna Robinson – 45
Randy Smith – 39
Leslie Johnson – 46
Hemant Bhonde – 65
Richard Brown – 41
Kathryn Begay – 90

(List compiled by KFOR)

It's a pic of a tornado that lead rescue workers to spend days looking for victims, like these workers in Plaza Towers Elementary School:
Pic: Oklahoma National Guard
So, I don't find fake tornado reports funny. Most of the time, we can easily identify a fake report through metadata, recognizing the particular tornado, weather conditions, or geographical references. However, judging by the over 100 shares on Facebook, the public does not know that this is a fake report.  

I blocked out the dudes name because I've done some things in my past that I thought was funny and it wasn't. I hope he realizes that things like this matter and I hope others learn from his mistake.

Enjoy the sunshine today,
Ryan

Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Flooding Concerns This Weekend

I keep hoping that the models will start showing less rain over the next week, but they aren't. The 2 models that we use the most for guidance in the long range are showing some areas with 7-10" of rainfall before all of this is over. The placement of the heavy rain is still questionable, but with a very moist atmosphere for the weekend, we are bound to see some flooding... somewhere in Region 8. This is NOT GOOD considering a few rivers are ALREADY reporting minor flooding:
At the very least, some farmland may be under water by Monday. Here's what two models are showing as of right now. Remember, this is including the rain Wednesday night and the weekend. Let's hope this changes:

Stay tuned for changes... hopefully drier changes.

Ryan