Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Rain Coming In...

As I type this at 8:55am, there is a complex of thunderstorms northwest of us, moving in our direction. This could make for a wet car line for many parents, kids, and administrators this afternoon. Here is some data suggesting what radar will look like between 2:00-3:00:
We are increasing the rain chances for this afternoon. If you have plans on going to the fair tonight, the rain may be well south of us at that point. Don't cancel evening plans, yet.

Have a good day!
Ryan

Friday, September 05, 2014

Feeling Like Fall Soon!

It's going to be a hot night for the first week of Football Friday Night. I'm expecting temperature to be in the mid and upper 80s at kickoff. Tomorrow a cold front comes in and it will make us feel more comfortable, but I'm looking more at the data for NEXT weekend. Take a look at this map:
This map shows the temperature departure from average for next Saturday night. If you notice, the purple area is dipping into Region 8. That shows temperatures 20 degrees below average! If you are like me, you are wondering of this cool air will arrive before next week's Football Friday Night. Well, at this time, it appears it will. This is a map showing the kickoff temperatures for next Friday night from the GFS model. Click to enlarge:
Keep in mind, this is model data and not Gospel. We are still several days out and this can change. I'll be really happy if we are at football games next Friday with 60s though!

Stay tuned and stay cool tonight.
Ryan

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

More on the Winter Outlook

I'm intrigued by comparing the 2009/2010 winter to the upcoming 2014/2015 winter. If you missed my first post, click here.

Tonight, I decided to dig deeper into 2009 and the winter that followed. So far, we have had a relatively cool August in 2014. In 2009, the month of August looked very similar. Here's the climate log. Click to enlarge:
So, hypothetically... let's say the upcoming winter will be similar to the winter of 2009/2010. I pulled some data to create a map that shows the total snowfall of the 2009/2010 season:
As we already mentioned, that was a snowy season. I just wanted to see it on a map. I may dig into this a little more as we get closer to winter... I mean, it's only August, right?

Ryan

Monday, August 11, 2014

Snowy Winter For Region 8?

My job is to forecast for the next 7 days and go on your TV, phone, tablet, and computer to tell you what to expect. There are some people that do long-term forecasts. Their typical customers are insurance, energy, and agricultural companies.

One of those long-range forecasters is Joe Bastardi of www.weatherbell.com. Joe has recently been discussing the upcoming winter and has mentioned that Region 8 should expect MORE snow this winter than an average winter.

He specifically highlighted two winter seasons that we should look at to make a comparison, the 2002/2003 winter and the 2009/2010 winter. I decided to pull some data from those two winters and they were rather snowy!

Let's start with looking at the Jonesboro snowfall totals for the past 10 years. For some reason, the snowfall data is not available prior to 2004. Click image to enlarge:
In the above image, you can see that the 2009/2010 winter season had a lot of snow, with over 13" for the season! I remember that winter well. This was NOT the Ice Storm winter... that was the 2008/2009 winter. During the 2009/2010 winter, we did A LOT of sledding....



Since the Jonesboro data only went back to 2004, I decided to look up a few more locations. Here is Corning, AR and notice the two snowiest winters... 2002/2003 and 2009/2010:
And finally, here is Pocahontas, AR... Once again, the same winters were the snowiest:
So, if Joe Bastardi is right and the upcoming winter is like the 2002/2003 and 2009/2010 season, get the sleds ready!

Tuesday, August 05, 2014

Moving On...

I'm typically not the type of person that gets attached to a home. My wife and I have lived in a few states and we've had a few homes. In less than 2 weeks, we are moving again. For some reason, leaving this home is different. I won't get into all of the long personal stories, but we have had a lot of life in this home.

As we prepare to move, several things are already gone from the yard. The trampoline which had hundreds of hours of use has been disassembled and thrown away. It was entirely too old to jump on anymore. The playground has be moved to the neighbors yard to hopefully give hours of fun to their grand-kids, like it has given to my kids and the kids that lived here before us. The tree still stands. This tree has provided shade for the kids to play outdoors in the hottest afternoons. Also, as you can see, it is also an awesome tree to climb. I've even climbed it a time or two.

If this home had a little more room, we would not leave. Our neighbors are awesome, the area is quiet, and I have some great bike routes from this house! But, with 4 kids, we need more room.

We already know some of our new neighbors and we are looking forward to our new home. I pray that the transition goes smooth! We're only moving a few miles away... What could go wrong? LOL

Ryan