Monday, May 21, 2018

Tropical Rainfall POSSIBLE This Weekend!

It's several days out, so DO NOT ALTER PLANS YET. With that said though, I know a lot of people are making outdoor plans for Memorial Day Weekend. There is a tropical disturbance that is very far away from us right now. Some data is suggesting that the disturbance will move inland this weekend and could impact Region 8. Here are my thoughts right now:

  • Don't cancel plans yet. It's still early and things can change.
  • However, consider a Plan B.
  • Wind is not looking to be an issue.
  • The best chance of rain looks to be on Monday.
  • Pockets of heavy rain possible.
So, let's dive into some data. The maps below show the "precipital water" in the atmosphere. Think of it as how much water there is available if it all rained out of the clouds. I want you to focus on the pinkish-salmon color. That's the deep, tropical moisture. This is the last run of the Euro model:

Notice where the moisture is on Wednesday:
By Friday, it starts moving inland, possibly as a tropical depression or storm. We should still be mostly dry on Friday:
By Saturday, we may start seeing a few more showers and storms:
If this plays out, Sunday would be more wet:
The latest Euro has this deep moisture lingering around on Memorial Day:
Once again, let's not worry, yet. I just wanted to give you as much notice as possible. Consider this your First Alert. We will update you with any changes.


Monday, May 07, 2018

Snow In May? Not So Fast...

If you look at the Jonesboro records for May, there are a couple of days that may stand out. On two days, the record snowfall for Jonesboro is a "trace". But, there is a flaw in the record systems... Hail is counted as snow. Let me explain....

If you look back at the two years in question, you will notice that it was NOT cold enough to snow, but there were thunderstorms. Thunderstorms with hail!

Here's 1949. Notice the comments:

Here's 1955. Notice the hail reports:

So, if you ever see "snow" being reported in climate logs during the spring and summer months. It might have been hail!


Monday, April 23, 2018

Will This Be The COLDEST April on Record?

April of 1907 was an odd April for Jonesboro. We had 6 days with frost, with the latest on the 18th. On 10 of the days, we never even hit 60° for the high temperature. It was kind of wet and gloomy and areas north of us were still experiencing snow. As you can see from the map below, the entire state had below average temperatures:

Sound familiar?

So far, April of 2018 has been even colder! That's right, we are currently experiencing the coldest April since 1907. Therefore, we are on track to have the coldest April on record in Region 8! Take a look at the same map, for this month, so far:
I pulled the latest data this morning for Jonesboro and we have an average monthly temperature of 51.8°. That's 6.9° BELOW average:
Here are the TOP 10 coldest Aprils in Jonesboro:
I know some of you are wanting to make a correlation to the summer forecast, but let me caution you to NOT DO THAT. I'm planning on digging into the summer outlook soon. Let's get to the end of April before we dive into that task! I will leave you with this... July of 1907 was above average on temperature in some parts of Arkansas:
Have a great Monday!

Friday, April 06, 2018

April Snow? CRAZY Rare. How Rare?

There has been a lot of chatter about the snow chances LATE tonight into Saturday morning. If you recall, we have been talking about this possibility for a wintry mix for almost a week. This is extremely rare for Region 8. In fact, it's been 25 years since snow officially accumulated in Jonesboro in the month of April. Even on that day, it was just a "trace". That's why it's hard for me to be too worried about any problems tomorrow morning. BUT, here are my bullet points on this Friday afternoon:
  • I think many parts of Region 8 will see sleet and snow falling EARLY in the morning.
  • With temperatures in the low 60s right now, it will be VERY difficult for the snowflakes to stick.
  • If anything does stick, it will be on the grass, lawn furniture, grills, and maybe the fresh leaves of the Bradford Pear trees.
  • Any snow or sleet that does stick will melt by noon.
  • Roads should be fine.
First, let's flashback 25 years to 1993. This is the last time that we had an official accumulating snow... and it was only a trace:
In the history of weather records, Jonesboro has never had more than a trace of snow recorded in April. Here are the years:
Even in the northern parts of Region 8, Poplar Bluff has only recorded a "trace" of snow in April. We MIGHT see a record broken there tomorrow with 0.50" of snow:
If you look at the average snowfall across the region in April, it's not that impressive. 0.20" is the highest in NW parts of Arkansas, SW parts of Missouri:
In other words, the likelihood of accumulating snow in April is very low. The models are all showing some snow, I just don't think it will stick well. Here are 2 models showing wintry mix tomorrow morning:

Generally speaking, I think we will see a dusting on grassy areas from Jonesboro northward. Roads will be fine.

Here are what several models are showing for accumulation. It typically don't show all of them on the blog, but I wanted you to get an idea of the general trend. 

We will continue to update you on new data tonight and tomorrow. 


Thursday, April 05, 2018

Wintry Mix In April? Maybe.

Yes, there is a chance that some parts of Region 8 will see a wintry mix on Friday night. Don't panic though, we are not too worried about accumulation. Here are my thoughts as of Thursday morning (4/5):

  • Spotty storms on Friday morning.
  • Widespread rain Friday afternoon.
  • Heaviest rain near I40.
  • BRIEF change to sleet or snow, especially in Southern Missouri counties.
  • Accumulation is doubtful, but possible in southern Missouri counties.
Overall, the forecast has been on-point for the past several days and has not wavered much. Of course, when it is concerning wintry precipitation, the track of the storm and 1-3° means everything! The low looks to be tracking right along the southern border of Arkansas Friday PM. That will keep the heaviest rain near I40, but allow some colder air to switch the precipitation to a wintry mix. If you are into agriculture, you are likely just worried about the precipitation totals. Let's chat about all of that! 

At 7PM on Friday, most of Region 8 will be covered up with rain. Just rain... no wintry weather. Here are two computer models:

By midnight, the colder air starts working in from the north before the precipitation moves out and some of the rain turns to a wintry mix. Once again, two models or scenarios: 

As I mentioned, the heaviest rain will be along I40. Here are two models projections of the precipitation totals. I'd be shocked to see anyone get over 3":

We will continue to update the Region 8 weather app.