Wednesday, October 01, 2014

Wind Chill in the 30s?

It's possible! In the wake of the cold front set to come through, we could be quite cold on Saturday morning. The models continue to trend cooler! Now, we are not covering the plants or anything, but bundle up on Saturday. Take a look at the latest data from the GFS regarding temperatures at 7AM on Saturday. Click image to enlarge:
I'm pretty confident that everyone wakes up with an air temperature in the 40s. West Plains may even be in the 30s! There will also be a little bit of wind. The grey areas show 5-10 mph winds from the west or northwest:
Factor in those cool temperatures and a little bit of wind and there is a CHANCE we have the wind chill in the 30s EARLY on Saturday. If you have plans early in the day, bundle up. By the afternoon, it will be milder with temperatures in the 60s. Here's the GFS on wind chills at 7AM on Saturday:
My family will be at youth football early on Saturday and I'm looking forward to the football weather! If you are going to the A-State game on Saturday, it will get chilly fast after the sun goes down.

Take care,
Ryan

Severe Weather Update

Like I have done in the past, let's start out with some bullet points:

  • Severe weather is possible late on Thursday into Friday morning.
  • Gusty winds appear to be the main threat.
  • Hail is possible.
  • Tornado threat is low, but still possible. Know your plan in case a warning is issued.
  • Most of the storms will come after sunset. Meaning, most of Thursday will be dry.
Let's talk about timing because a lot of you have football games, practice, the Boyer Mile, lawns to be mowed, swim practice, etc, etc... Remember, these images are model driven and the timing could change.

Around 7PM, a line of storms will be moving into the state, but still west of Region 8. We can not rule out some isolated storms ahead of the main line. If one of these storms impact your outdoor plans, it will not last long. These storms will probably be strong in NW Arkansas, with some severe thunderstorm warnings. We are hoping they weaken as they move East:
Three hours later, around 10PM, the line of storms will be moving into Region 8. If this data does not change, we will be tracking storms at the top of Region 8 News at 10:00. The storms will have likely prompted a watch (either Severe TS or Tornado) and there will probably be a few warnings in the state. Heavy rain and lightning is likely:
By 1AM, the kids and dogs will be climbing in bed with you because of the lightning, but I'm hoping nobody has to be in their Tornado safe spot. Typically with a squall line, the tornado threat is low. It's not impossible to have a tornado, it's just not as likely. Make sure you have a way to get the warnings in case a tornado warning is issued. Here's what the data shows for 1AM:
By 4AM, the storms have crossed the river and they are out of Region 8:
The weekend is looking AWESOME. The weather will be nice for Football Friday Night, tailgating the A-State game, and the game itself. Make some outdoor plans!

Don't forget to follow me on Twitter at @ryanvaughan ... I have frequent updates there.

Ryan

Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Severe Weather Possible on Thursday

It has been awhile since we have had severe weather. While this does not appear to be a major severe weather outbreak, we need everyone prepared. Make sure your weather radios are on Thursday and make sure your family knows what to do in case a tornado warning is issued for your area.
Let's dig into the details. There is a chance of severe weather on Thursday. Right now, we are thinking the greatest threat will be from central Missouri to Western Arkansas to NE Texas. That's where we are highlighting a "Medium" risk of severe for Thursday PM. The areas in yellow have a low risk of severe weather, but that may change as we move closer to Thursday.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined most of the area in a "slight" risk for severe weather. As I mentioned earlier this year, at KAIT, we are trying to convey the risks a little better with a "Low, Medium, High, and Extreme" risk. We feel it is easier to understand than the categories from the SPC and it allows us to adjust where we think the greatest risks will be located. The SPC does a great job and we will still use them for guidance, but we are trying to make the threats easier to understand for everyone.

With that said, let's take a look at what radar may look like on Thursday afternoon:
By late in the afternoon, as you see in the above image, we should have showers and storms from SW Missouri, through SE Oklahoma, into Texas. Here in Region 8, we expect some sunshine and very warm temperatures that will be making our atmosphere more unstable. By sunset, we will probably see some storms developing ahead of the main line in Region 8.
In above image, you can see the storms trying to develop ahead of the main batch of storms. These storms could be severe. Hail is possible and even a small chance of a tornado. We will be tracking the storms closely. Notice, the storms in western Arkansas are stronger at this point, with heavy rain.
Between 10pm-2am, the main line of storms will move through Region 8. As the line passes through, we expect:

  • Heavy rain
  • Lots of lightning
  • Gusty Winds
  • A chance of hail
  • Isolated tornado possible


Stay tuned,
Ryan

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Rain Coming In...

As I type this at 8:55am, there is a complex of thunderstorms northwest of us, moving in our direction. This could make for a wet car line for many parents, kids, and administrators this afternoon. Here is some data suggesting what radar will look like between 2:00-3:00:
We are increasing the rain chances for this afternoon. If you have plans on going to the fair tonight, the rain may be well south of us at that point. Don't cancel evening plans, yet.

Have a good day!
Ryan

Friday, September 05, 2014

Feeling Like Fall Soon!

It's going to be a hot night for the first week of Football Friday Night. I'm expecting temperature to be in the mid and upper 80s at kickoff. Tomorrow a cold front comes in and it will make us feel more comfortable, but I'm looking more at the data for NEXT weekend. Take a look at this map:
This map shows the temperature departure from average for next Saturday night. If you notice, the purple area is dipping into Region 8. That shows temperatures 20 degrees below average! If you are like me, you are wondering of this cool air will arrive before next week's Football Friday Night. Well, at this time, it appears it will. This is a map showing the kickoff temperatures for next Friday night from the GFS model. Click to enlarge:
Keep in mind, this is model data and not Gospel. We are still several days out and this can change. I'll be really happy if we are at football games next Friday with 60s though!

Stay tuned and stay cool tonight.
Ryan

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

More on the Winter Outlook

I'm intrigued by comparing the 2009/2010 winter to the upcoming 2014/2015 winter. If you missed my first post, click here.

Tonight, I decided to dig deeper into 2009 and the winter that followed. So far, we have had a relatively cool August in 2014. In 2009, the month of August looked very similar. Here's the climate log. Click to enlarge:
So, hypothetically... let's say the upcoming winter will be similar to the winter of 2009/2010. I pulled some data to create a map that shows the total snowfall of the 2009/2010 season:
As we already mentioned, that was a snowy season. I just wanted to see it on a map. I may dig into this a little more as we get closer to winter... I mean, it's only August, right?

Ryan