Tuesday, January 30, 2007

Snow Update...

Just like a little kid, I got up early to look at the latest data regarding the upcoming storm system. It still looks like a tough call! Let me explain... We look at several computers models which help us determine the temperature, storm track, depth of cold air, etc... All of this info helps to determine precip type, accumulation (if any), and impact on our everyday lives!
The models are all over the place on this storm. I was hoping to see more consistantency between them this morning... but, no luck. Here's the raw info, but don't get excited.
This first image is a screen capture of GFS computer model, using the BUFKIT program. The time goes from right to left (backwards, in my opinion). The red line is the temperature. The bar graph indicates precipitation. Blue bars are snow and orange bars are sleet. The purple and yellow contours are the optimal snow growth zones. Anywho, let's just focus on the timing first. This indicates the precip coming in late Wednesday evening... Temps will be below freezing and snow is expected considering we will be below freezing through the entire column of air above us... Once again, don't focus on "how much" right now! Next slide....
Below is a forecasting tool that was developed by some folks up north and a guy named Rob Dale hooked us up with this info for the Jonesboro area. Thanks again, Rob! Below is using the same GFS data and look how much snow it says! WHOA!!! There's no way we will see a foot of snow... is there? I seriuosly doubt it! Let's move to the othe side of the spectrum! Shall we?
Below here is the NAM computer model using the same technique as above. It indicates a changover to rain on Thursday, leaving us with MUCH less snow! Only about an inch for us, then mainly light rain.
I usually do not talk about accumulations on-air until 24 hours out, but since this is the blog... I'm going to throw out some numbers. Right now (Tuesday, 9:30 am), I am thinking we will see 1-2" Wednesday Night into Thursday. Let's see how it unfolds. The forecast is likely to change, so stay tuned...
Judging by my site meter... There are a lot of Nashvillians on here too. Click on the NashvilleWX blog to see what they are saying about the Nashville area. I'm sure they'll keep you posted for your neck of the woods.
More updates to come! Take care!

1 comment:

kristi said...

Oh come on! We have not seen a snow like that in years! I say bring it on!