Something to watch, Ryan, is that for the most part....all the models have been underforecasting speed shear ever since the Clovis, New Mexico tornado event. We saw this the next say and that Sunday.... then we saw it this past Wednesday on the 28th, when even the 00Z NAM the night before was only progging 30-35 kt 850-mb winds up over KS/NE...but by the time we got to objective analysis mode that afternoon... RUC objective analysis had 50-55 kt 850-mb winds in the eastern Texas Panhandle. And looking at the 18Z NAM today, there are some hints that it may be the case with this system as well, as the 18Z NAM had 150-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH over northeastern and eastern Arkansas...back up into eastern Missouri and western Kentucky.
The frontal forcing to the north, across the Ohio Valley will be pretty strong...so things will line out up there pretty quickly, but slightly less forcing, combined with some capping, may help keep things discrete.
I hate to say it, because I know what you guys had to go through, but IF the shear is being underforecasted, this has some similaries to the April 2, 2006 event..... where the greater threat of discrete supercells would be in the southern half of the outbreak area, because of less linear forcing...and a slightly stronger cap.
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Something to watch, Ryan, is that for the most part....all the models have been underforecasting speed shear ever since the Clovis, New Mexico tornado event. We saw this the next say and that Sunday.... then we saw it this past Wednesday on the 28th, when even the 00Z NAM the night before was only progging 30-35 kt 850-mb winds up over KS/NE...but by the time we got to objective analysis mode that afternoon... RUC objective analysis had 50-55 kt 850-mb winds in the eastern Texas Panhandle. And looking at the 18Z NAM today, there are some hints that it may be the case with this system as well, as the 18Z NAM had 150-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH over northeastern and eastern Arkansas...back up into eastern Missouri and western Kentucky.
The frontal forcing to the north, across the Ohio Valley will be pretty strong...so things will line out up there pretty quickly, but slightly less forcing, combined with some capping, may help keep things discrete.
I hate to say it, because I know what you guys had to go through, but IF the shear is being underforecasted, this has some similaries to the April 2, 2006 event..... where the greater threat of discrete supercells would be in the southern half of the outbreak area, because of less linear forcing...and a slightly stronger cap.
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