Thursday, December 20, 2007

Let's Talk Snow... Again.

Ok... There is too much chatter about a White Christmas around town, so let's discuss. Is there a chance? Sure... but it is not a great chance. The only model that is showing a White Christmas right now is the GFS. It has shown this for the past few model runs, but I'm still not sold on it.

First off, I'm not sold that we will see ANY precip. Secondly, if we see precipitation, I'm not sold that it will be snow. Maybe a mix, but not a full snow event. With the said, the GFS did very well last week... especially 3 days out. SOOO, let's wait a few more days before we get TOO excited. Fair enough? In case you are wanting to see the BUFKIT GFS profile's Overview for JBR.... Here yah go:Now, let's talk about a storm AFTER Christmas (27th).Tthat is a day that I am a little more concerned about right now. It's also an event that doesn't have a name... like White Christmas!!! Anywho, there are models hinting at a nice Southern Snow Storm next Wednesday Night and Thursday. It's a week away though and this will likely change... One model to note, is the Japanese Model. It has done very well in Winter's past, but it may be a little aggressive with this particular storm. The first image is the expected precip on the 27th. You can see that the moisture is there! The second image is the 850mb temperatures. I like to see them around -2 or below for snow. I circled the areas on the surface map that will likely see snow, IF this happens. This is still SEVERAL days out. We're just hunting for snow now! :)
Lastly, here's another graphic to get excited about... It's the DGEX model showing the snow accumulations for next week (mainly the 27th.) I'll believe it, when I see it! LOL
Now that everyone is pumped up about some snow next week, I'm going to go back to nailing down a 7 day forecast. I still do not plan on biting on to the Christmas Storm too much... We'll see.
Take care,
Ryan

9 comments:

LET IT SNOW! said...

THOSE IMAGES MAKE IT AWFUL HARD NOT TO GET EXCITED.

Karen H. said...

Good Afternoon Ryan,
We got some rain here in Caraway this morning. The thunder woke me up around 5:45a.m. So, I just got on up and I could hear it raining hard outside. It has warmed up here in Caraway. The temperature on my computer is saying 56 degrees right now. Of course, it is with the KAIT8 weather. I've actually had to turn my heat down this afternoon. I came close to turning the A/C on. LOL. Oh well, this is the famous Arkansas December Weather. I'm not sold on the snow either. I sort of got my hopes up last time, but I'm like you, I'll believe it when I see it. I had even blogged about it last week on my blog. I'm not going to do that again. I think I may have cursed the snowfall last week. LOL. I do hope you are feeling better. Take care and have a great evening.

Karen Horton
Caraway, AR

Jason H said...

Thanks alot Ryan, like I really needed something else to get excited about.

It's not like I don't run from model to model every 10 seconds of everyday just tring to find some possibility of snow for us. Now I can just to your blog and get excited. YOUR THE MAN !!!Keep all your watchers happy. Tell us what we want to hear man! Now your getting the hang of things. We won't egg your house if your wrong, we justall want to hear it's gonna snow.

Thank you again,

Jason "the Snow/Ice lover" Hampton

Heidi said...

RYAN!!!! It's taken me ALL THIS TIME to recover from a single, rogue WRF run, and now you throw this at me?!? And there is NO MORE CHEESECAKE in my fridge!!!!!!! I could go Chewbacca on everyone again, you know! AAAAAAAA!!!!

(That Japanese model looked AWESOME though!!!)

Clay said...

Wow Ryan, I didn't know you had a blog. I have a lot of family living in Jonesboro and "Region 8" so when I am in your neck of the woods I always check you alls forecast. Boy I wish we could get a decent snow in the Mid-South. Last time I saw it snow in Jonesboro was around Christmas of '04 and the last time we got a decent snow where I live (Nashville) was January of '03 (7+"). It seems like every time snow is on the table, modeling backs of it.
-Clay in Nashville

Anonymous said...

What time do you think will the biggest chance of rain on Saturday? We have family plans and I can't leave my puppy dog home alone when it rains. I know it's crazy, but she's our little girl and gets terrified of the rain, wind, or thunder!

Ryan said...

Saturday's rain will be "mainly" after noon it appears. Somewhere between 3-8 PM, it appears.

Anonymous said...

Any "CHANCE" of snow in the WSFA area? Boy, it's been awhile since we had snow in Montgomery! If ya'll don't want it in Arkansas, you can send it our way.

Ryan said...

Maybe a very slim chance in WSFA country... Very slim!