Wednesday, April 02, 2008

Severe Threat, Out On A Limb...

I'm going a little out on the limb with this forecast, so bear with me. The SPC has been focusing most of it's outlook on TX and OK, but I think there may be another (if not the only) hotspot along the Mississippi River. We'll see if I'm right...

The 5KM WRF model has been hinting at this and I'm really starting to bite on to it even more. The below image is the Energy Helicity Index map. EHI is a calculation that (in simple terms) combines the "instability" threat with the "spinning" threat. If you notice, there are high EHI numbers in Eastern Arkansas and Western Tennessee tomorrow. That's not good...

This second image is still the 5km WRF model. This image plots the STP or Significant Tornado Parameter. Once again, please note the area in Eastern AR.This may be our little sign to pay close attention to the storms tomorrow despite only being in a "slight" risk from SPC.
Make sure you have a plan. Have a radio on standby, in case you lose power. We join forces with Triple FM during severe weather events. Keep it tuned to KAIT, 100.5, 104.9, and 100.5 for any watches or warnings.

Regardless of the threat of severe weather, flooding is going to remain an issue. Below is the estimated rainfall from the HPC. That's a lot of rain!

Be safe, take care, and look for more weather updates tomorrow.

Ryan

2 comments:

Jason H said...

Well it is 5:20, and I am getting ready to take off to St. Louis. It is raining there right now, but looks like it could be out of the area by 9 or so. Hopefully it won't move back into the area until 3 or 4 ???

Heidi said...

Ryan, I was looking at the WRF at the same time you posted this last night! I was shocked when northeast AR wasn't in the MOD risk this morning!!!