Friday, May 09, 2008

Severe Threat on Saturday

Well, I am probably going to stay up until 1:00 am. I'm curious to see if the SPC is going to issue a "high risk" for parts of Arkansas. If they do, I would guess that it would be right in the middle of Arakanas and it "might" include some of our southern counties. We'll see.
The NAM model still does not have the warm front lifting through half of our viewing area. IF this happened and the front gets hung up to our south, the threat for severe weather will be lower. I'm going to watch our EHI closely. The EHI or Energy Helicity Index is a measure of the "spin" and "instablity" combined. Anything over 1 is concerning and over 3 is very concerning. Since the NAM is keeping the warm front (and the most unstable air) south of Jonesboro, the forecast EHI is only 0.88 , however... Little Rock has a forecast EHI of 4.5 according to the NAM! As you can see, the NAM thinks the front will stop somewhere between Jonesboro and Little Rock.

Despite what the NAM shows, I think the front is going to push a little farther north. The National Weather Service and I were chatting this evening and we both believe that the "lack" of convection (thunderstorms) this afternoon will allow the warm front to surge northward. We'll see. Regardless, severe weather still looks likely in our southern counties... at least.

This 5KM WRF Tornaod Index lays it out there. There is a risk for reveryone, bu the greater risk is to the SW.
The GFS model still shows very unstable air and shows the warm front moving north of our entire viewing area. The severe weather indices are pretty high.
Regardless... someone in AR will see some severe weather tomorrow. I need to rest up! A friend of mine will be down here chasing. I'll post his dash cam video later on.... I may not stay awake until 1:00 AM...



Stacy said...

Has Arkansas always had crazy weather patterns or is it just since you've moved there and I've paid attention? It seems like y'all have something happening all the time! WOW!

Lucky thing they have a great weather guy ;)

Ryan said...

It's be pretty bad lately! Thanks for the nice words Stacy! You guys need to watch out, too!

You all had a naty wind storm two nights ago, I heard!