Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Gustav Update

Several of the models we use for Tropical Analysis still look bad for someone in the Gulf of Mexico. I'm trying to wishcast this thing somewhere else, but that never works for me. We have some friends that are going to Destin on Saturday. Needless to say, they are pretty concerned about this storm. The Vaughans were also going to tag along, but we backed out.
The image above is the GFDL model. It still shows a North Central GOM landfall around Labor Day (click images to enlarge). It also still shows Gustav as a MAJOR hurricane, too. Even if it makes landfall in Louisiana, the effects will be felt from miles away. If you notice, a central Louisiana landfall would still bring Tropical Storm force winds to the Florida Panhandle and the waves would be quite rough.
The image above here looks a lot like Hurricane Ivan from 2004. For those of you that read from Alabama, you know what that did to us when I lived there! This model above is the HWRF. Once again, a very respectable model. The strength may be a little inflated...
And here's another.... this is the NOGAPS above.
And then the above image is the UKMet....
Someone asked me about the GFS model being used all of the time a few days ago. Well, the GFS is way out of touch with Gustav right now. I have thrown it out for the time being.
The big question is going to be what the upper-level pattern looks like in the US this weekend. This will determine where Gustav will steer. I'm still thinking that people from Houston to Panama City, FL need to be on guard the most. I'll have friends in Destin and my dad will be in Beaumont, TX.... Someone should send some pictures and maybe a live phone call???
Take care,
Ryan

4 comments:

Jason H said...

My prediction: Gustav hits the New Orleans region at noon Monday as a cat 4. It also brings heavy rain and tropical storm winds to region 8 Tuesday night into Wednesday....now Ryan I can give those kind of predictions because I won't get into trouble if I am wrong this far out. ;-D

Anonymous said...

Well, if it comes toward Alabama, we are ready! Thanks for keeping us Alabamians in mind and giving us this "sneek peek" 'cause you know we won't get it locally. I personally have a feeling it might come closer to Alabama, but I could be wrong....

Donna
Wetumpka

Anonymous said...

Well, I've been watching and my question is this: Is the HIGH that is over Florida going to move enough to pull it towards Alabama or will it pretty much stay where it is and push it towards Tx, LA?

Jason H said...

Well I am not a Weatherman, but I think NO ONE will know where it is truly gonna go for another 36-48 hours, and even then won't be 100%.