Saturday, December 26, 2009

"Chance" of Snow Before 2010

The NAM model is trying to show some snow for us on Wednesday morning. Models are not agreeing too well on this system, but we will need to watch it. Most data shows some upper-level energy, but the NAM shows a slightly stronger "vort" max or "spin" in the atmosphere and more moisture surging in from the Gulf of Mexico. This solution is not out of the question and the NAM did decent with the last system, so it does hold some water.

The above image is the "overview" window of BUFKIT showing the same NAM model. Timestamp goes right to left... and you can see the blue bars on the right side of the screen indicate some snow on Wed AM. Using a 12:1 ratio, it is showing about 2" of snow. As a reminder, this is a computer model and not Gospel, so don't get excited. I will not make ANY accumulation forecast until Tuesday Night. I'm simply putting it on your radar screen. For those of you  that simply want a snowfall accum. map of this model, peep this... Once again, this is a model and NOT a forecast...

For the record, the GFS model is also showing "some" precip, but it's more of a "Flurry" situation.

Stay tuned,

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I hope we get some snow soon. School starts back next week, would be nice to see it snow so kids could stay home an additional day or two to play in snow.