Thursday, March 18, 2010

Tricky Weekend

There are a lot of signs pointing to an all rain event and it probably will be all rain in Region 8, BUT let's not let our guard down. This post is intended to point out that there is a chance to see some flakes somewhere in the state on Sunday. The ground is warm, so it would just be cosmetic. First off, we have lowered the temperatures due to the track of the low and spread the rain chances through Sunday. Now... what about snow? Look out for the bowling ball!!
This is the 700mb map. I drew a bowling ball on the center of the low pressure. It's barreling through the state Sunday morning. There is a CHANCE that some flakes could fly in this setup directly under the low. I'll be watching the center of the 700 mb low closely. Moving along though... Will there be any precipitation leftover? See 3 hour precip for Sunday morning...
Yes, there will be some moisture. But... According to this model... not much when the colder air arrives, but other models have a nice zone setting up that would provide more precipitation. Here's the cool part. We may have an area of snow, with rain all around it. I've seen it before and it look like a similar setup for Sunday. It's going to be fun to watch... especially since the surface temperatures will likely be above freezing.
Notice in the above image that the reezing temperatures will be well to the northwest, BUT with cold air aloft and close to the surface... it's still possible to see some flakes.

Bottom line... It's POSSIBLE. It's not LIKELY, but it is possible to see some flakes in Arkansas on Sunday. Now, Missouri folks will see some snow in the SW/Central part of the state too... It's just more questionable in Arkansas. Areas outside of Region 8 stand a much better chance.

We'll watch it,

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