Monday, October 25, 2010

Early Morning Severe WX Threat

There is an amazing storm taking shape across the country, but will this storm be amazing for Region 8? As I look over a few things tonight in the Storm Center, I am starting to think we will see a decent squall line march across the Midsouth in the morning. First, we have some very moist air in place across the region. As I type this, dewpoints are already in the mid to upper 60s. Second... the winds aloft are ZIPPING!

The above image shows the 850mb winds for tomorrow morning. That's the wind about 5,000 feet above our head. Whenever those winds kick up a little, it's a red flag to watch for some strong storms in this environment.That alone has me concerned. In addition, the air should become more unstable...
The above image is the CAPE or instability. The yellow area nosing up the Mississippi River shows the unstable air moving northward ahead of this very dynamic storms system.

These ingredients suggest a strong line of storms could move through. The main threat will be WIND which is generated from the strong winds aloft. While WIND is the main threat, we can't rule out a tornado. We'll be watching it. Meteorologist Sarah Tipton will be in the storm center as this moves through and I'll be on standby as well.

One last note... We should not see a lot of rain from this system. About 0.25" is possible. As far as timing is concerned... Ozarks from 3-6AM, Ridge Area 6-9AM, Ridge to West TN 9AM-11AM.


No comments: