Right now, it is COLD outside, but that will be changing. Warm air will start moving in from the south and as that warm air moves over the cold air, we will start seeing rain develop on Wednesday. I think we will warm up enough for it to be all rain, but I can't rule out some BRIEF sleet at the onset Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The bulk of this type of rain (overruning rain) will fall on Wednesday, although showers are still in the forecast for Thursday as warm air continues to move in from the south. At this point, I'm eyeballing Friday. It's a big day for people. Many will be heading out to New Year's Eve Parties and the weather will impact your day and night... whether it is severe or not. So, let's talk about it.
First, the temperatures are going to be warm! Look at the map for midday on Friday:
Now, let's talk about other variables. We appear to have some upper-level support and shear to support strong storms, but overall instability could be lacking. Below is the CAPE map. More or less, this is the fuel to get the storms to build:
This next map is the lifted index map. Pretty much, thunder/lightning is possible in areas with negative numbers (colored areas). It's not that cut and dry, but it's a good starting point. Notice, we do run the risk of at least hearing some thunder from nature's own New Year's Eve Fireworks!
Maps provided by my friends at www.twisterdata.com