Random thoughts about the weather and life. I may even vent every now and then. Since 2004!
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
White Christmas? Not So Fast....
For the past few model runs, the GFS has been taking the low WAY south. In fact, it is leaving out ANY precipitation. No snow, no rain, nothing. The above image shows the upper low sliding south of us on the 12Z GFS. This would mean NO white Christmas. However, we still have the NAM.... Here's the 12Z NAM
Notice, the NAM has the low farther North and tapping into the northern branch bringing down the cold air. THIS would give us a White Christmas! Look at this data in the BUFKIT program. The timestamp goes from RIGHT to LEFT:
It's still too early to at this point. Hopefully the models start coming together over the next 12-24 hours. I'm still leaning to us getting some snow, but it's what we call a "LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST". Let's let the low come inland a little more... shove some weather balloons into it... and get a better grasp on it!