Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Thursday Update, And What About Sunday?

Here's the latest data from StormCAST HD regarding tomorrow evening. This is 7PM on Thursday and it shows a squall line moving through Region 8. This is a good thing. A more linear storm system would be better than individual supercells. I also looked at the latest Tornado Potential product from StormCAST and it shows a very low threat for tornadoes. Heavy rain is still a great concern though. Below is the estimated 48 hour rainfall totals from StormCAST
Remember, this is just one model that we look at to forecast and other data suggests more rainfall than what is seen in the above image. For those that don't know, StormCAST is a model we run here at KAIT. It is a HIGH resolution model grid for Region 8.

Once we get through Thursday, we have to start watching Sunday Evening. Initially, it seemed the next storm would arrive on Monday, but it now appears faster and stronger than Thursday's storm....
If you notice the image above, it is what could be happening in the upper-atmosphere on Sunday evening. The bright greens and yellows are high winds aloft. The solid lines are 500mb heights and when they "fan" out over Region 8... it creates "lift" and storms. Let's not get weather ADD though and stay focused on Thursday first.

Take care,

1 comment:

Karen H. said...

Okay, now I am getting really worried and scared. I sure don't like Severe Weather, especially when there is a threat of Tornado's. When Jonesboro got hit the last time by a Tornado, me and my Family were up at Walcott Camping. We had a small camper and our little camper was really rocking. I was so scared I put my pants on backwards. Of course, this was back in the 70's and I was young back then. Ever since then, I have always been afraid of severe weather and Tornado's.

Karen Foote Horton
Caraway, AR