Sometimes there is data, sometimes it's a gut feeling, and sometimes it is a little of both. I'm concerned that some football games on Friday night will have some rain. Not much and it will not last long, but I don't want someone caught off guard.
The above image is a 500mb map or what you may refer to as an "upper-level" map. If you click on the map to enlarge you will see some shades of greens, yellows, and reds across Arkansas. This indicates a small "hiccup" in the atmosphere or "upper-level disturbance". This is what may spark off some showers and storms. This next map shows a simulation of what the radar might look like...
Notice, there is green on the map. While this model shows rain and so does our "in-house" computer model (StormCAST)... not all data supports this solution. This is when the gut feeling kicks in.... My gut feeling says we need to have the rain chances higher than 20% and if I wake up tomorrow morning with similar data, I will be increasing the rain chances fro Friday. Stay tuned!
Ryan
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