Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Snow Chances?

There has been some chatter on Twitter and Facebook lately about the chance of snow in Region 8 in the near future. I even mentioned the "s" word briefly on TV. So, what are the chances that we could see some snow soon? Well, let's take a look at some data. Here's the evening data from the GFS model and if you are wanting snow, you won't like this run...
The above image (click to enlarge) is the BUFKIT program that we use to look at data. It does a great job of plotting the data in a graphical form. I have the temperature (red line), dewpoints (green line), precip (green bars), and a few other things on the graph. The time goes from RIGHT to LEFT.

First thing to note is that we are warming over the next few days. We could even  be 60 degrees by Saturday! As our next storm comes in, we will likely see rain and even a few storms. The next storm is the one that initially pointed at the chance of snow on Tuesday. I wanted to wait to get the evening data before posting this blog and I'm glad I waited.

After a few model runs showed snow for next Tuesday, it now looks like just rain and moving in a little faster. This would put rain in here in Monday. Here are some upper-level maps that show Saturday's storm. This first image shows where Saturday's storm is now:
If you notice in the above image, the storm is coming onto the west coast and will close up as it moves our direction... Let's fast forward a little bit to Saturday...
In the above image, we will be getting rain and maybe some thunderstorms for Saturday. The next storm will be coming in Southern California and set to impact Region 8 on Monday or Tuesday... Here's where it has changed...
In the above image, the storm system is moving through a little fast than earlier model runs. It's also not a closed low as indicated in earlier model runs. This does not show the cold air to support snowfall, but would likely just give us rain.

Here's the deal.... this could change back to a snow event, but as of right now... I'm not overly concerned. Stay tuned though!


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