Friday, December 21, 2012

Snow On Christmas Night?

It's not on Christmas morning, but would some snow on Christmas night count as a White Christmas? If so, we might see some hope in the future. The evening run of the GFS model is back to showing the chance of snow for Christmas night. We have hinted around about this for a few days, but I try not to get too excited until we get a little closer and we get the last storm out of the way. The closer we get, the more confidence we have in the forecast. Let's show you what the GFS has for Christmas night into the morning hours on December 26th:
I altered this map a little bit to make it easier to read. The blue line (540 dm thickness line) is often the unofficial rain/snow line. North of that line could be snow by Christmas night. I also changed the color of the precip to whites and grays to show where I think it may be snowing. I also clearly marked the center of low pressure.If this verified, we could see snow.

Now, let's look at this data on a graph. This is BUFKIT and remember, the timestamp on this graph goes from RIGHT to LEFT. Click to enlarge:
We use this program to look at the data in graphical form. There is a lot of info on here, but just look at the blue bars which shows snow! THIS IS NOT A FORECAST! This is just raw data. The raw data shows 3-5" of snow, but I would not get overly excited about that yet.

We've had a lot of flip-flopping on the models lately and I'm sure we will see some more, but with it being Christmas, I had to share the possibility with everyone. STAY TUNED! The new "Euro" data is coming in now. Check my Twitter feed for thoughts on it... That feed is on the right side of my blog if you are not on Twitter.

Ryan

2 comments:

Kathy Fisk said...

Praying for snow :) Thank you Ryan for keeping us up to date!

Kathy Fisk said...

Praying for snow :) Thank you Ryan for keeping us up to date!