The Storm Prediction Center is a branch of NOAA and the NWS that issue outlooks on severe weather, severe weather watches, discussions on ongoing severe weather (MDs), and fire outlooks. Before I wanted to go the television route, this was my dream job. Maybe I'll do that when I grow up.
Let's first talk about the Day 1 outlook for today, April 9th. This is an animation showing the probability of hail, probability of damaging wind, probability of a tornado, and the actual Day 1 outlook:
The Day 2 outlook combines all three for the probability and the conversion chart is different. Here's the Day 2 outlook and probability of severe weather:
If you notice, there is a large area with a 45% probability of severe weather. The conversion table is different on the Day 2 outlooks. Here is the chart:
If SPC still thinks there is a 45% chance of severe weather tomorrow, there will at least be a moderate risk for Region 8. We will wait and see.
Have a great day. More on the severe weather threat later today here and online.... and on Twitter at @ryanvaughan throughout the day!