Sunday, January 05, 2014

Missing A Forecast


It's halftime of the ASU game. The game has been a nice diversion from missing the forecast today. Simply put, we thought there would be more snow on the backside of the rain. Sometimes we forecast and God laughs. It's part of the business, but it does not make it feel any better.

Yesterday, I felt confident in our forecast. Our team was going on the low end of the all of the sources you guys can use for a forecast. Over the past 48 hours, the data continued showing less and less snow. You can scroll through the blog and look at our forecast, but we did not even get the low end of a "dusting" in most spots.

Now, I know some of you got snow. I understand that, but there are some more populated areas that missed most of the snow.

I have thick skin. I try not to take things personal, but my biggest critic is myself. It's hard to ignore my own mind. As with any forecast, I reflect back on what went right and what went wrong. I'm not sure if there is anything we could have done differently. We simply missed it.

I've had an email that called me a loser, a bread man that cussed me on Facebook, and a duck hunter that vented to me on Twitter. Most of that, I laughed at...

If the forecast truly messed up your plans or left you with too much milk or bread, I apologize. We will do better in the future. I promise.

Have a great evening, it's time to watch the second half of the football game. Let's Go Red Wolves!

Ryan

PS- I am glad the kids are not gaining another June School Day.


36 comments:

Richard Raspberry said...

Hey, it's okay Ryan. We're all human, we make mistakes. Shame on them.

Anonymous said...

Ryan, you can only predict what you see as a possible weather condition. God only knows if your right or wrong. To those that want to blame you or say ugly things to you, shame on them. What would we do if we had no way of preparing for any weather condition? I for one think that we have the best weather team and 9/10 times we are givien the right weather conditions. Only God can be 100% right all the time. Keep up the good work and God bless you.

Mike Todd said...

How could you do better really? You guys take the data you are given and make an educated prediction on what we need to expect. If people bought too much milk and bread that's their fault. You guys never predicted an event that would disable the entire community. I'm far from the expert, but seems to me that the front went a little farther north than what was expected. Win for us. It could have gone farther south than expected and that would be a lose. As it is, we all get to go to work and school tomorrow and that's a good thing. You guys do a good job and I say there was no "miss" here. Certainly not one anyone should be mad about.

Clarissa Jones said...

Dude, some people would grip no matter what. They are just sad mean people. I'm sure most are being funny. I bet most can not remember the forecast being presented with magnets! LOL. Look how accurate things have come in the last 10-30 years.

Eddie Bowman said...

No worries brother, you are only human.

Anonymous said...

There is still no one I would rather have when tornados are in the area. Keep up the good work!

Wendy Reeder said...

You said it well...only God truly knows. You guys always go above and beyond to prepare our area. Nobody is perfect, some people are just idiots lol. Keep your head up and keep on keepin' on. PS-I work at a school and I was praying hard for no more make up days so I am STOKED for missing the snow!!!

Anonymous said...

Well.. .. I think you should back off yourself a little.. We are human! We all make mistakes.. Yes that's true but I wouldn't even consider it human error.. .. We all depend to much on technology you read the models, you watch watch and rewatch programs and you report to us (the viewers) what you and your team PREDICT will happen.. To the ppl that get so angry over weather or not it rained the right amount on the right day, or snow or whatever the case maybe; well im sure they have depended on a type of technology that failed at some point! With that being said enjoy the game! And at least being a weatherman of Arkansas you'll have plenty of chances to 'get it right'.. Lol

Anonymous said...

You probably set yourself up for some grief with silliness like the "panic-o-meter". Just stick to facts. Folks are capable of panicing or not all on their own.

Anonymous said...

It just really bothered me to read all the ugly comments made toward you and the weather staff over the last few days, it made me almost ashamed to be from this community! My skin isn't thick at all, I would be very bothered by the ugliness displayed by some of region 8 over some potential for snow. Anyway, hopefully there are enough of us viewers and weather-lovers to make up for it. We appreciate you guys very much. -H.M.F.

Anonymous said...

There is no better team than Region 8 StormTeam hands down. I once heard winter weather was one of the hardest things to predict for a meteorologist. You win some, you lose some but at least I know me and my family will be safe in severe weather.

Anonymous said...

I look at it this way, it's better to be over prepared for any weather situation. Had the storm team not said to be prepared and a winter storm happened more lives would have been in danger. True it's easy to blame it all on you but people need to get over it! I would want to be prepared for a storm than not.

Anonymous said...

Hey- It's Kerry.

I'm sorry, since when did a "Forecast" become a guarantee?

To those who had harsh words for you, I say grow the heck up. A forecast is one tool in planning. Another, which they seem to lack, is COMMON SENSE.

It may rain, it may snow, there may be an earthquake. Last time I checked there wasn't a guarantee, warranty or return policy on YOUR life.

Rock on brother and don't let the fools get ya down.

Cathy said...

Ryan, things happen and weather is hard to predict. Some people have no class. God knows that you do your job to the best of your ability and we appreciated your love of the weather and your commitment to the job. The truth is....I only want you when it comes to our weather. You are my favorite and if you need to " get ahold " of anyone...I'm ready to do battle for you. Don't let the "Betty Bad News" people affect you. They are not worth it. So you missed the forecast. Me.... I cooking the extra food for someone who needs it.

Mitzi Baker said...

Let me get this straight they are upset that we didn't get bad weather?? geez How come you couldn't get it wrong on these brutal temps? lol I think you guys do a fabulous job! You guys just make predictions with the info you have. God controls what it actually does. These people who make mean statements need to remember just how many lives you guys have saved during tornado weather!!

Anonymous said...

Ryan,

Your blog was graciously well written. Keep your sense of humor and keep on going. I enjoy reading your Facebook posts and thank you for the extra effort you make to serve the community.

Anonymous said...

Ryan, thank you for all you do to keep us informed. I truly appreciate it. Hope you have a blessed week.

Bill Alan said...

Dude, it's a predicted forecast. . . Not a guarantee

Jenny said...

Don't worry about it. You guys do a great job, and I don't know why some people have to be so negative. I imagine my students are going to grumble a bit about having to get up and go in the morning, but I am personally thrilled not to have to take another snow day.

Anonymous said...

Regardless, I think you are a winner and we are lucky to have you! Thanks for your dedication.
Pay no attention to the haters. Haters gotta hate!

jason said...

U do a real good service for the area! Keep up the good work!

cendyj said...

Ya know, it bugs me to no end. It seems that once social media came on the scene people just completely did away with their filters. Ive seen major ugliness displayed by the most unlikely of people! Saying horrific things...bet ya 10 bucks if they were looking u in the face theyd b saying u did a great job with the info on hand! Seems we use social media as an outlet for saying the things we never would dare to in real life! I think the region 8 team does a great job! ♡

Rhonda Moore said...

You do a terrific job! You are very conscientious, very meticulous; your viewers (and readers) seem to be a top priority when you present your forecasts. Thank you for all the research, all the time you put into each forecast. Thank you for the continuous updates, for providing the most current information regarding our weather.

Personally, I'm very glad this was one bit of winter precipitation that Paragould missed and one forecast that made God laugh. :-)

Heidi Gray said...

There's nothing you could've done about it anyway. God makes the weather & my sisters & I have been praying for several days that God would protect Walnut Ridge from bad weather so that our Revival services would not be hindered due to weather. Mustard seed faith tells me it was & is ALL out of your control.

Anonymous said...

Ryan my whole family loves you, and appreciate your integrity, intelligence, and love for Region 8. Just like your cartoon, only God knows for sure. You did your best and missed it this time. So what? You are the most accurate weatherman I have ever seen. Rest easy, there are always people who just have to run their mouths. As for the rest of us, we hope you never (ever) leave us.

Anonymous said...

its ok Ryan. Maybe God just felt like he needed to play a few tricks today. Maybe he knew how good of a weatherman NEA had so he kind of blew the snow a little more toward the NE so it just pass us on by. id feel real good about myself if I knew God randomly pulled tricks on me. ;)

Anonymous said...

Just let it roll off like water off a duck's back. Let's face it - some people are just jerks. And one of the many "perks" of being in the public eye all the time is that you get to hear from a lot of them! Just remember that just because they have the biggest mouths does not mean they are the majority.

Like I always tell my kids - get a good night's rest and it will all look better in the morning! We appreciate you and your team!

Anonymous said...

I am GLAD we missed the snow and freezing rain!!! And you are the man I want on TV when tornadoes are flying. Don't let the complainers upset you.

Anonymous said...

I do have a weather question: Right now the temp in Juneau, Alaska is 34. Our temp is now 18. What's up with that??

Anonymous said...

Think of all the times you hit the nail on the head with the forecast. You guys are great and we appreciate all of your hard work.

Anonymous said...

Dave Brown has always been my favorite until i moved here from Memphis! You sir do a fantastic job and i love your posts!! Only The good lord above knows for sure what the whether will be. But you owe us some snow...lol!!

Phyllis Jones said...

Well, you certainly got the temperature right! No one can be right all the time. I think you guys do a great job trying to keep us warm and safe. Keep up the great job! You certainly have more hits than misses. :)

Kathy Pausch said...

Ryan and Team 8,
You guys ROCK!! You can only use the information you have at hand. I don't think you guys missed it! I am glad NO SNOW, as for temperatures, NAILED IT!!! Those folks calling you names, well, wait till tornado season, they will be singing a different tune.
Yes I am glad only 2 days in June so far!!

Happy New Year
Kathy

Anonymous said...

Dave Brown has had the Mid-South market sewn shut for the last 3+ decades. You, Ryan, have come along to follow as he draws nearer retirement. Woe be to Jonesboro when we loose you to Memphis or another major metropolitan area/station.

Anonymous said...

It could be worse.

Sheena C. said...

You do a great job. Some people are just very negative no matter what you do. I figured something was up when I went to Wal-mart for groceries on Saturday and the shelves were bare in spots, but I looked at my KAIT app and all I saw was very cold weather in the forecast. I appreciate all you do to keep us informed.