Monday, January 18, 2016

Snow This Week?

I'm waking up to NO snow and VERY cold air. Some of you woke up to a dusting! We had just enough moisture to swing through to have some flurries and light snow. Because it is SO cold, it was sticking easily! We have more snow to talk about for the week ahead. Here are my thoughts at 7:45 am:

  • The dusting this morning was not much, but it got people wanting more snow!
  • We have a chance of rain/snow mix on Tuesday night.
  • We have a chance of rain on Thursday.
  • And then.... a chance of rain/snow mix Thursday night.
  • For both events, the freezing line will go right through Region 8.
  • Some of you may get snow, while others get nothing.
  • Schools could be impacted, especially on Friday.
So, let's dig into some maps. If we take a really wide shot of the upper-level disturbances, we can see what gave us snow showers last night, where the disturbance is for Tuesday night, and even where the energy is for Thursday:
As you can see, the Thursday storm has a lot of ground to cover before it gets here! Pinpointing exactly where it will go will be difficult. So, there is a chance that the forecast will change a little. 

First, let's look at Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. A low pressure moves through bringing rain to Region 8 late on Tuesday. As the low moves east and colder air moves in, we should see some wintry mix. At this time, I'm not too concerned, BUT it may cause some issues in Southern MO and for the Arkansas counties that border Missouri. Stay tuned!
Now, let's fast forward to Thursday night. A stronger low pressure moves into the state. If it passes south like the GFS and Euro models are showing, we will find Region 8 on the colder side of the storm. We would still start as rain, but as the colder air moves in, it would change to snow. This is Thursday evening:
As the cold air moves in behind the low, everyone would change to snow. This is a forecast and could change! Remember, this energy is just south of Alaska right now. There are a lot of factors that can change this storm before Thursday night! STAY TUNED.

I'm not going to get too excited just yet, but the Panicometer might come out this week!

I'll keep you updated!
Ryan

2 comments:

lolface said...

Ryan, I can't wait for it to snow! My brother and I have been waiting all year. ps. I used to have a favorite weather man and that is you!!!

Nancy Watson said...

Thanks for all you do Ryan!! My fingers are crossed for some snow =D