More rain is coming to Region 8, but the data is unsure of HOW MUCH. Here are my thoughts about the rain coming in:
- Clouds increase on Tuesday.
- Rain STARTS Tuesday evening in spots.
- Rain off and on for Wednesday.
- Severe threat is LOW
- Flood Watch is in effect.
- Rain moves out Thursday morning.
If we had not had 8-10" of rainfall last week, I would not be sweating the chance of rain too much. However, the rivers are rising and the ground is saturated. Any rain is not needed, at this time. That is why we have a Flood Watch. At this times, it appears that the GFS model is the most consistent. It shows the heaviest rain along and south of I40. I think this is very close to what will happen:
The Euro had the heaviest rain band setting up over the center of Region 8. It's pretty much the only model with this solution and shows the most rainfall for Region 8, with 2-3" in Jonesboro area:
And finally, the RPM shows the lightest rain in Region 8, but a ton of rain south of us:
I like doing these blogs, because it holds us and the model accountable!
Have a great day!