The Storm Prediction Center has issued a moderate risk for severe weather for Region 8 for Thursday. While I initially thought this may be a little overdone, I'm starting to buy into the fact that dangerous storms may arrive late on Thursday for parts of Region 8. The greatest risk for severe weather will be where the spin meets the instability.
If you just look at the instability parameters, it's not overly impressive in NE Arkansas, but it is enough to get these storms going. The above image is CAPE and it shows some higher amounts of CAPE in the state. Now, let's combine the CAPE with the shear to see the greatest threat....
When you combine the the shear and instability to pinpoint the area of greatest concern (EHI), you will see an elevated risk of tornadoes between Jonesboro and Memphis. This is the area we need to watch late on Thursday. Keep in mind, if the warm front does not lift far enough north, the unstable air does not come into play and we only get heavy rain. That would be awesome! I root for Region 8... not tornadoes. Heavy rain will come in regardless...
The above image is the expected rainfall! Over 3" of rain is possible, if not more, in parts of Region 8. Stay ahead of the storm over the next 36 hours by staying in touch with us on air and online.
Take care,
Ryan
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