Sunday, December 23, 2012

Mistlesnow Update, Sunday 5:00 PM

I just got home from visiting family in Nashville and I have NOT looked at a ton of data, so this blog post will be rather short. I'm off work today and tomorrow, but I still plan to dig into the data to help unfold this storm system with the team. The above image is the current Winter Storm Watch which has been issued for Region 8 for late Christmas Day into Wednesday morning.

Let's glance at a little bit of data. First, this is for those that don't want much snow. It's the BUFKIT profile from the NAM. The NAM has the low a little farther north and leaves us a little warmer. Many areas will still get 1-3" of snow, but many areas would miss out. Notice, for Jonesboro, we would likely switch back and forth from rain and snow through the afternoon on Christmas. Remember, the time-stamp goes from right to left on this program... Blue bars show snow, green bars show rain...
Now, for you snow lovers... This is the GFS. The GFS has the perfect setup for SNOW! And when I say snow... I mean snow! This keeps most of the heavy part of the storm as SNOW for us because the low tracks a little farther South than the NAM. In the graph below (which goes RIGHT to LEFT)... You see the showers from this morning... the snow on Christmas... and another system later in the week.

The above image/model, which is the GFS shows 7-10" of snow for Jonesboro. That's a model and NOT a forecast... yet. It seems a little aggressive for me, but we'll watch it.

The GFS is not alone. Several other models are showing big time snow for us. Here's a map of the RPM model. notice the swath of heavy snow! This would be quite a late day White Christmas!
That's all I have for now. I'm off work and I have some other things to take care of... BUT I hope to blog later tonight when more data comes in! I expect a new blog by 11PM.


1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Thank You!