Friday, March 15, 2013

Tricky Weekend Forecast

The weekend forecast is going to be a doozy. Region 8 spans 22 counties and on Sunday, some parts of Region 8 could be in the 40s, while others are near 70! We've gained more confidence in Saturday's forecast, with all of Region 8 seeing highs in the mid 60s to around 70, with colder air JUST to our north (north of the front). Here's the Euro model for Saturday. Click image to enlarge:
Sunday is when it gets fun! The Euro shows a SHARP temperature gradient across Region 8! The front dips in from the north. Some of us are warm and some of us are cold! Here's what the Euro shows for Sunday afternoon highs. Click image to enlarge:
Here's the tough part. Not all of the data agrees with the position of the front. Take a look at the NAM for the forecast highs on Sunday. Let me say, I believe it has the front pushing too far South:
SO, as a broadcaster, we have a few challenges. First, how do we plot the temperature on the 7 day forecast? I plan to make a special graphic that pops out of the 7 day forecast to show a map of the temps. Tell me tonight if it works and is understandable! Second challenge is to explain the difficulty of this forecast. That's why I'm blogging, but I plan to make a graphic tonight to explain it as well. On Monday and Tuesday, I made a similar graphic. We have known for several days that the weekend forecast would be tough! Stay tuned!


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