3:00 PM Update on Severe Weather

So far, so good... but, remember that the greatest threat was not until tonight anyways. Here are the current watches at 3PM on Sunday. Red areas are Tornado Watches, blue are Severe Thunderstorm Watches:

We are still not unstable in Region 8, thanks to the rain that has been falling. Remember, CAPE is the energy needed for storms. The CAPE is still rather low here, BUT that is expected to change tonight:

The short range computer models picked up on what the rainfall did to the CAPE, so they have a little more weight on the forecast for tonight. The lower CAPE is in blue and the higher CAPE is in yellows and oranges:

Here comes the bad news! Short range models show the atmosphere rapidly destabilizing this evening! If this occurred, any storm that forms could have a tornado warning. This is why we can't let our guard down yet and this is why we need to stay watchful:

 Unfortunately, I think we will see some tornado warnings while people sleep. Make sure your weather radios are on or you have something else that can wake you up in the middle of the night.

More updates on twitter at @ryanvaughan