Sunday, January 31, 2016

Not Much Rain, But Strong Storms Possible

Good Sunday evening! I've been in Huntsville over the past few days learning about some new equipment we have a KAIT. I also heard from several people in the business about best practices for severe weather coverage. It was a very beneficial weather conference.

Now, it's time to focus on the chance of storms through lunchtime on Tuesday:

Here are my thoughts as of 8:00 PM on Sunday, January 31st:

  • I'm not overly concerned about the threat of severe weather in Region 8, but we will have to watch our eastern areas on Tuesday morning. 
  • Prior to that time period, we may see a few showers tonight and Monday.
  • We will be cooler on Monday before the warm front moves north.
  • The greatest chance for severe weather will be Tuesday morning through lunch.
  • The greatest threat is from Crowley's Ridge to West Tennessee.
Let's dig into some maps! Right now, we have a cold front moving through that has sparked off a few showers:
That front lifts back to the north tomorrow night to give us a few showers and it will make the air unstable. Since the warm front does not lift across Region 8 until the evening hours, Monday's temperatures will be cooler than what we had today:
On Tuesday morning, the air will be unstable, but not as much as what it will be in Tennessee by the afternoon. We should have showers developing into thunderstorms around Crowley's Ridge. Some of these storms may be strong:
The greater threat from this line of storms will come when it goes into Tennessee, Mississippi, and Kentucky:
Once that line moves out, our severe weather threat drops to zero and we will actually be left with a very nice afternoon before the colder air plunges in for the rest of the week.

In Summary, we have a LOW risk of severe weather for Region 8, with the exception of areas from Crowley's Ridge eastward where there is a MEDIUM risk. We may move that risk farther east in later forecasts.  



Rufus&Buddy said...

Thank you!!!! We have to be on the road and head to walnut ridge Tuesday so from what I see we should be okay. Thank you!

Unknown said...

Thank you Ryan I am so grateful for your forecasts.. I may sound like a silly old woman but is Trumann east of Crowley's Ridge? I haven't lived here very long so I'm still learning thank you again

Anonymous said...

Crowleys Ridge is North of Trumann. It is up above Paragould.