Friday, July 01, 2016

Holiday Weekend Severe Storms

I'm not wanting anyone to cancel their plans, but I DO want you to make sure that you are watching for updates on our app. Region 8 could have some strong storms this weekend, especially on Sunday and Monday. Here are my thoughts right now:

  • Saturday looks "mostly" dry.
  • Sunday's greatest rain chances will come late in the day and mainly confined to areas NW of Jonesboro. (Sharp, Fulton, Baxter, Izard, Stone, Howell, Oregon counties and surrounding areas)
  • If you are going to Lake Norfork or Bull Shoals Lake, pay close attention to the weather. Especially on Sunday afternoon and evening.
  • On Monday, everyone in Region 8 has a chance of storms. They will not last all day, so just have a Plan B.
  • Greatest threat on Sunday and Monday will be lightning and gusty winds.
  • Tornado threat is very LOW.
  • New data will continue to come in... When I know something new, YOU will know something new.
Let's dig into some data. You can have "thunderstorm energy" or CAPE and not have storms. That happens a lot in the summer due to the hot temperatures. However, when you have something to trigger these storms, it changes the game. This weekend, we have a lingering front and some upper-level energy that will spark off some thunderstorms. At this time, I'm mainly concerned with Sunday and Monday. Here's the CAPE (thunderstorm energy) on Sunday PM and the projected rainfall:
This is why I'm concerned about storms near the lakes late on Sunday. Do not cancel your plans, but make sure the notifications are turned ON for the Storm TRACK 8 app. We will keep you updated.

Heading into July 4th (Monday), the coverage of the storms increases. Here's a model of rainfall coverage on July 4th. Don't look at specifics, but rather the general theme of the coverage:
Make sure you have a plan B on Monday and make sure the notifications are turned on for the Storm TRACK 8 app. If you have the location services turned on, our app will also warn you about lightning nearby. The storms on the 4th of July will also have quite a bit of energy to work with, so take them seriously:

I am not canceling my plans, but will be watching radar closely. I hope to see all of you at the Southside Softball Complex on Monday night for Freedom Fest! Remember, follow me on TWITTER for the latest updates at @ryanvaughan


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