Friday, December 16, 2016

Buckle Up! The Weather Starts Changing Today!

I was born and raised in Nashville, TN. We all had season passes to Opryland and I probably rode their roller coasters 30 times a day in the summer. One of the roller coasters was an indoor one called "Chaos". It had a recording that played over and over again while you waited in line, so obviously, I still remember what it said today. Anyone that grew up in Nashville during this era probably remembers, "Please move quickly through the station, your time is running out"... well, here in Region 8, our time is running out. The roller coaster starts tonight!

As I type this blog on Friday morning, we are still cold. Most of us are still below freezing:
Here are some bullet points on what will happen over the next 48 hours:
  • Tonight, the warm front comes through. We will be in the 40s this evening, but when the sun comes up in the morning, we will be in the mid 60s!
  • Tonight, spotty light showers
  • Tonight, very breezy. South winds 15-25 mph.
  • Tomorrow morning, very warm for December.
  • Tomorrow afternoon, thunderstorms. Some may be strong from Highway 67 southeastward. More details below.
  • Tomorrow night ... Temperatures drop 40+ degrees!
  • Tomorrow night... a quick change to sleet and snow... no major accumulations.
Now let's get into some details. I'm going to go chronologically so that we can keep this as simple as possible. Tonight, we are going to see some showers as the warmer air moves into Region 8. I would not be shocked to see a few sleet pellets when it starts. That happens when the air is getting moist and we are already cold, even if it is above freezing. No wintry problems at all tonight:
We go to sleep tonight in the 40s and wake up in the 60s! That's the power of a warm front! By the afternoon, the air is very warm, but the cold air will be moving in quickly. Notice the temperature difference:
Ahead of the cold front, the air will be unstable. This map below shows CAPE or Convective Available Potential Energy. Think of it as the energy needed for storms to develop. It's not crazy high, but decent for December:
I expect the storms to develop somewhere in this region between 4:00-6:00 PM and move southeast. The main threat with these storms would be small hail and gusty winds:
By midnight, the cold air is firmly in Region 8 and anything falling from the sky would be LIGHT sleet or snow. I'm still not expecting much accumulation, but a spotty dusting can not be ruled out:
I'm off work today, but Justin will have updates at 11:00 AM and Rachel will have updates tonight. I'm going to try to break away from the weather until needed. Have a great weekend!


1 comment:

Dawn Williams said...

I just wanted to tell you Ryan that your blogs are fun and interesting to read.