Severe Weather Tuesday into Tuesday Night

We have a tricky forecast over the next 48 hours. We could see 2 rounds of severe weather. The first round is what we call "conditional". We know that the air is going to become very unstable and the dynamics that support severe weather will exist Tuesday afternoon. The big question is if storms will develop in this environment, ahead of the cold front that will come through early on Wednesday morning. You may have heard us mention a "cap" before. This "cap" is some warmer air aloft that prevents the air below it from rising. Essentially, it snuffs out storm development until the air below it warms enough to overcome "break" the cap. If we get really warm tomorrow afternoon, it will be easier to overcome that cap. That's why we always say that seeing sunshine in this type of environment is not a good thing. Here are my bullet points, as of Monday morning:

• Spotty showers and storms are possible Tuesday morning. We are not worried about these storms.
• The environment becomes more conducive for severe weather Tuesday afternoon.
• Tuesday night into Wednesday morning is more likely for severe weather.
• Damaging winds, hail, and tornado are possible.
• Great threat will be northwest of Highway 67, but everyone needs to be prepared.
• I can't stress this enough. Have something that wakes you up during severe weather and a backup. Our app will give you tornado warnings, but also have a weather radio or secondary way to get warnings.
• Review your severe weather plan before bedtime Tuesday night with the entire family.

Let's make it visual. The data here is "Significant Tornado Parameter". In the morning, the threat is very low:

As we warm up and as the dynamics come together, the index goes up a little by lunchtime on Tuesday. At this point, I'm still not worried. The kids will be fine at school and we will have a somewhat normal day:

In the evening, things get interesting. The air becomes more unstable and the liklihood of storms goes up. This is the "conditional" round 1. The greater threat is still west of us:

Going into Midnight, we see our highest threat:

By 3AM, the threat is moving NE:

During this time frame, the radar may look something like this:

That's all I have right now because I'm in a hurry. Video updates will also be on the KAIT weather app. Stay tuned.

Ryan