Severe Storm Potential: Tonight and Tomorrow

We are warm and unstable over the next few days. Despite that, the severe storm risk is "conditional". It's one of those setups that "if" something develops, it could be severe. Not everyone will see rain and storms. Here are my bullet points this morning:

• The best chance to see severe weather will be tonight and through noon tomorrow. (12AM-12PM)
• Gusty winds and hail are possible.
• Tornadoes are possible.
• Make sure you have a way to get warnings while you are sleeping. Some storms could develop before the alarm clock goes off. 

Let's dig into some maps. The air starts getting unstable tonight. This map shows CAPE or the energy needed for storms:

Models do show some storms developing tonight. A few factors come into play, but I do expect storms between midnight and daybreak somewhere in Region 8. Probably in our western areas. Prior to midnight, I'll be looking somewhere between Little Rock and Mountain Home for storms that could impact Region 8. This map shows how much rain the GFS thinks will fall between 6PM and midnight tonight:

Tomorrow morning through lunch, the instability shifts East and the threat will continue for us into the lunch hour, especially in the eastern parts of Region 8:

Not everyone will have rain, but each storm that develops should be watched. This is the GFS precipitation from Tuesday morning until noon:

It's NOT a high or extreme risk at this time, but any risk (low, medium, etc) should be taken seriously. We will watch it closely. Stay tuned to the KAIT weather app and Region 8 News.

Ryan