Wednesday, May 24, 2017

Severe Weather Possible: Memorial Day Weekend

First off, I think we are going to salvage a lot of the weekend. If you have outdoor plans, you will want to watch the TIMING of the storms, but don't cancel your plans. Here are the bullet points as of today (5/24/17):

  • A few spotty storms are possible on Friday evening, but we are not too worried about these storms and anything that develops should not last long.
  • On Saturday, most of the day will be dry.
  • The greatest threat is Saturday EVENING.
  • Greatest threat: STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
  • Hail is possible
  • Tornado threat is LOW.
  • A lot of Sunday AFTERNOON may be dry. 
  • Memorial Day looks dry.
So, let's dig into some specifics. Remember, we are still FOUR days out and this forecast may change a little. As of now, here's where I think the greatest risk will be on Saturday and Saturday night:

For us in Region 8, we may see several hours of dry weather on Saturday. The latest data shows that most of the rain between 1PM and 7PM will be north and west of us:
Later Saturday evening and Saturday night, a strong complex of storms will likely develop and move through Region 8. Data is suggesting that these storms could have gusty winds and heavy rain. 1.00" of rain or more is possible. Here's the projected precipitation from 7PM to 1AM:
When these storms are moving through, they will have a lot of energy to work with and severe weather is possible. The air will be very unstable. Here's the "supercell index" from Pivotal Weather. This does NOT show where the storms will be, but where the ingredients are coming together for strong storms:
I think we will still have some leftover showers on Sunday morning, but Sunday afternoon is looking mostly dry. It also looks dry on Memorial Day. My greatest concern will be people camping on Saturday night. I'm NOT telling you to cancel, but MAKE SURE you have a way to get warnings and a plan in place for storms that have the potential for winds over 60 mph.


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