Friday, December 07, 2018

Tricky Forecast!

This might be one of the trickiest forecasts. Many models are backing off on the winter storm, while a couple of models are still ALL IN on wintry weather impacts for tomorrow. Here are my thoughts as of this morning:

  • This storm is going to surprise us... I'm just not sure how... yet.
  • Overall, snow forecasts are being adjusted downward.
  • Overall, freezing rain forecast is not being adjusted yet. Swath of 0.25" still expected.
  • Reminder, freezing rain typically is not "too" bad for roads. Sleet and snow is worse.
  • Greatest threat for travel problems is in Independence, Sharp, Jackson, and Cleburne counties in Region 8. This does not mean we will not see slick spots in other locations.

To give you an idea of the wide range of data this morning. Here's the the snow output from two models:

Here's the range of freezing rain output:

I'm hoping the data comes more in line this afternoon. Stay tuned.



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