Tricky Forecast!

This might be one of the trickiest forecasts. Many models are backing off on the winter storm, while a couple of models are still ALL IN on wintry weather impacts for tomorrow. Here are my thoughts as of this morning:

• This storm is going to surprise us... I'm just not sure how... yet.
• Overall, snow forecasts are being adjusted downward.
• Overall, freezing rain forecast is not being adjusted yet. Swath of 0.25" still expected.
• Reminder, freezing rain typically is not "too" bad for roads. Sleet and snow is worse.
• Greatest threat for travel problems is in Independence, Sharp, Jackson, and Cleburne counties in Region 8. This does not mean we will not see slick spots in other locations.
• MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE.

To give you an idea of the wide range of data this morning. Here's the the snow output from two models:

Here's the range of freezing rain output:

I'm hoping the data comes more in line this afternoon. Stay tuned.

Ryan