Tuesday, January 22, 2019

Rain Tonight. What about Snow?

I think we are all a little uneasy about a forecast that calls for rain to end as snow after last Saturday. On Saturday, we expected MINOR accumulations (until Friday night and Saturday morning), but the colder air plunged in quickly and we saw a few inches of snow in parts of Region 8. I didn't really pick up on that trend until Saturday morning, just a few hours before it got crazy. A little later than I wanted.... but, I'm glad that we were a little above freezing or we would still have covered roads.

With that said, we once again find ourselves in  situation where the rain will end as snow. As you can imagine, I'm a little hesitant to say that there "will not be much accumulation", BUT I'm going to do it anyway. Tomorrow morning does not look like a huge problem. Here are my thoughts right now:

  • Most of the daytime hours will be dry and windy.
  • Rain increases tonight.
  • A squall line moves through between 2:00-4:00 AM.
  • Severe weather threat is very low, but the winds could get gusty.
  • 0.75-1.00" of RAINFALL expected.
  • Briefly ends as snow around mid morning.
So, let's dive into some data. All of the models show a wet night across Region 8. These maps show what radar could look like at 3AM and you can see the heavier squall line that could have some thunder overnight:

We don't need any more rainfall, but it's coming. Most data is showing 0.75-1.00" of rainfall. Here are the model runs in graph form:
This is what it looks like on a map:

Lastly, some of the data still shows the rain ending as snow, but ALL DATA shows little to no accumulation:

So, get ready for a soggy night and a wet drive to work and school on Wednesday morning. Don't panic if you see snowflakes.



Unknown said...

Snow is pretty as it falls from sky, even pretty as it lays on the ground. Not so nice to walk on or drive in.

Cody said...

I see cold air arriving quick again. Northern ar will be the target zone again, and I expect alot of problem tomorrow. After Saturday yall need to stop down playing storms it's getting old!!!!!

SomeOldCowboy said...

Here's a new winter predictor. My chickens dug holes about a foot deep in the chicken house and moved their straw into the holes. They're not roosting, their hiding. Goonna be bad!

[I hope I don't hurt your feelings with my silly comments. If I do, I'm sorry. Just send me a short email, someoldcowboy@gmail.com and you'll never hear from me again.]

You're a great meteorologist and a great man of G-d as well.

Bob Johnson

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