Sunday, January 20, 2008

Ice Still Possible For Some

Data continues to hint at a "light" wintry mix tomorrow night into Tuesday morning. The above image is the Overview window of BUFKIT, showing the GFS output. On this window I simply plotted:
  • Temperature
  • Clouds
  • Precipitation Amount and Type

I added the 32° line to show you how close of a call it will be! One or two degrees will make or break the forecast. Regardless, the precipitation should be "light". I am trending toward the "cold" side of the forecast and have a few reasons why I am thinking it will be colder:

  • Models have been too warm for the past couple of days. Why any different tomorrow night?
  • Shallow cold air is hard for the models to handle. 32°F line "should" be farther South than advertised.
  • The air is very dry and as the moisture comes in, we should see a process called "evaporate cooling" which should knock the temps down a little.

As my good friend Rob Hatchell said on WSFA this week, "there are no promises in winter weather forecasting", so stay tuned! Things can change, but as of now... some places may be icy on Tuesday morning. The best chance for wintry weather will be from Jonesboro to Batesville and points North.

Stay tuned!



Karen H. said...

Good Evening Ryan,
Well, now we are talking about ICE? Surely not. I mean, if we can't get lucky enough for some SNOW, why would we be lucky enough to get any ICE? LOL. I do have one question tho. Just in case, and IN CASE being big words there, we do get anything, if I wanted to take a picture of anything we might get, where do I send it to? The only camera I have is on my Cell Phone. I know one thing, it sure has been cold here the last couple of days. Saturday was Sunny, but down right frigid and today was too. I was in and out of the cold yesterday, but I have stayed in today. When do you come back to work from vacation? Take care and have a great evening.

Karen Horton
Caraway, AR

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the update! i'm new to the area from South Arkansas and always had an idea that NEA had alot more snow than I've seen in two winters here???

Jason H said...

Looks like the kids may have a 4 day weekend. Just a little Freezing Rain/Sleet will close schools.

Roads could get bad early Tuesday morning.