It's been an awesome day with highs going into the 70s for some folks across the state. The models have had a hard time keeping up with the warm air! The above image shows the late afternoon temperatures across the region. Here are some of the unofficial high temperatures from today:Jonesboro: 70
Paragould: 69
Wanut Ridge: 68
Newport: 70
Batesville: 72
Little Rock: 75
Mountain Home: 73
West Memphis: 67
The above image shows the winds streams and speeds. Notice the winds coming straight from the Gulf of Mexico, transporting warm and moist air into the region to feed the storms tomorrow night and Tuesday.
It sure was windy today, but it felt good. We opened the windows at my house and let the fresh January air inside! The strong southerly winds are bringing the dewpoints up, which will also need to be watched tomorrow. 
The above image shows the dewpoints, and the red area is the deeper moisture. As that area migrates northward, our air will become more unstable prior to the cold front on Tuesday morning.
My thinking has not changed much since the video update from yesterday. I still think we will see some strong thunderstorms and maybe a few warnings, but a widespread severe weather outbreak still does not look "likely".
With that said, let me flip-flop like a politician. The air is a little warmer and little "juicier" than I previously thought. If temperatures and dewpoints rise much more tomorrow, we may have a bigger problem on our hands. Just stay tuned.
Ryan
4 comments:
Hope it doesn't come true, but I say there is going to be some tornado warnings for late tomorrow evening and overnight. It is just too warm/juicy, plus alot of wind, for early Jan.. I hope it doesn't come together, but I just feel like it is going to.
:-(...hopefully it will be just some heavy rain.GFS out of Springfield is showing upwards of 3inches of rain for South C. Missouri.
I will make the coffee...Ryan is working late tomorrow night.;-)
Ryan, we may have a mess? I'm at work tonight till 7am, so I will see the NEW Day One SPC outlook afterwhile! Keep us posted!
Man this thing looks like it is gonna really slow down,and produce some very heavy rain. Most of our strong storms won't even be here until tomorrow morning. No late night for you after all.
Do you have E.S.P we don't know about ?
I hate weather models.
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