Two key computer models, the GFS and NAM show the front to come through on Tuesday. Here is the GFS at noon, with some homemade drawing from myself.
If you look at the GFS in the BUFKIT program (below), you can see a few features. Remember, the timeline goes from right to left. I have plotted the temperature, dewpoint, surface-based CAPE, elevated CAPE, precipitation, and clouds. We look at many more things through this program, but I don't want to get too geeky on you.
Some things to note... Temps near 70° on Monday. CAPE over 1700 j/kg on Monday PM. Sharp temperature drop on Tuesday afternoon, indicating the cold front.
We may see the CAPE (instablity) outrun the front. That's a simple way to say that all the ingredients aren't "meshing" exactly together, but I'm still expecting some strong storm Monday night into Tuesday. If you look at the forecast sounding and indices for 3:00 AM in the moring on Tuesday, you can see some impressive numbers. For example:
CAPE: over 1,200 (not too shabby for February)
Lifted Index (LI): -5.4 (anything under -4 flags strong storms)
Total Totals (TT): 57 (anything over 50 flags strong storms)
There are some limiting factors. First, if it times out like this... the worst part of the storm would come through late at night. Storms typically weaken at night...typically. Also, the greatest instablity and dymanics are not meeting up at the same time. This could change.
I expect the SPC to put us in a "Slight" risk. As of now, we are only mentioned in the day 4-8 outlook. We'll watch the event unfold.
I'm going to sleep. I have to be up early for the Chili Bowl! It's the Chili Cookoff at the Greene County Fairgrounds tomorrow. The public can come between 11-3. You can eat cheap and all of the money goes to Mission Outreach! Also, "Mike's Chair" will be playing!!! My wife says they are awesome! Come on out!