Sunday, March 02, 2008

Monday and Tuesday

OK... Let's chat about the weather.

Let me start by saying that this is a very complicated and difficult forecast. I'll be honest, if we nail this forecast 100%... I would be surprised and very proud of our team! LOL

I think most of the precipitation will be rain tomorrow. Some of the rain could be heavy and some of the storms could be severe, but I think most of severe weather will be south of us in Region 8. The Storm Prediction Center has us in a "slight" risk zone as of now. Here's a map showing tomorrow evening. Some of our NW counties may start switching over to sleet/snow around this time... As the colder air moves in, more places will switch to sleet and snow. The $1,000,000 question is "when" will this happen and will there be any moisture leftover. The track of the low will determine who gets snow and who does not get snow. Here's what could be happening on Tuesday morning.
There is going to be a sharp gradient between "no snow" and "significant snow" across the region. The NAM has been pretty aggressive with this system and continues that trend. While the below graphic shows part of the state getting over 10", I'd be willing to bet, THAT won't happen. In fact, if you cut these totals in half, you'd be more in line with my forecast at this time... That means, Jonesboro would get a dusting to 1" and some places in northern and northwestern Region 8 would get 2-5". We will rely heavily on our weather watchers during this event!
I've got to get to sleep. With bad weather coming in tomorrow, I have to hit the gym early. I have to be on a conference call with the NWS at 10:00 AM. I'll give you another update after that call, if not before. A winter storm watch is out for parts of Region 8.


1 comment:

Karen H. said...

Good Morning Ryan,
Well since this is Arkansas, and we all know what kind of weather we can have here in Arkansas, I just hope we don't have anything too severe. We know we sure don't want any of that. I am going to say that the Snow will go all around us again. LOL. I just guess the Snow doesn't like it here in Southeast Craighead County. I know I'm not a weather watcher, but I do keep a very close eye on the weather and I will be watching all day for any severe weather. I hope you get a good night's rest and I do hope you don't have to come into work today. Take care my friend and have a great day. May God Bless You and Yours.

Karen Horton
Caraway, AR