Thursday, May 01, 2008

SPC Upgrades Region 8

The SPC has upgraded us to a "Moderate" risk for tomorrow. I'll admit, I'm a little surprised by this outlook. In any case, they are thinking a major outbreak will occur tomorrow and are even showing signs of upgrading to a high risk.

In my opinion, this is going to be very "conditional". If we stay in clouds all day, there is not a high chance of severe weather, including tornadoes. HOWEVER, I fully expect to see watches and warnings. I'm just not sold on a major outbreak.

I'm going to look over some more data and post more information later today, but I wanted to give you some of the new information. I sure hope that we stay cloudy!



robertrowland said...

I hope this doesn't pan out. My wife and I are promoting a big southern gospel music concert in Bald Knob at 7:00 PM tomorrow night with The Freemans and The Glovers and I will be off work! I will still call you if we get any bad weather from that area!!!

Mandy said...

maybe it will be a the last time they put us under the 10%probabilistic tornado outlook

Jason H said...

WOW have you seen those babies in Oklahoma and Kansas ?!?!?!? Muti-Votex tornadoes, and baseball size hail. :-/

Fred Gossage said...

There's a lot of mid-level dry air to the west of Region 8.... that would promote morning subsidence aloft to help combat some of the leftover clouds. The moisture tonight on the evening soundings ahead of the cold front and dryline.... is also about 1 to 1.5 kft deeper than models had been suggesting. And there are mid/upper 60 to near 70 dewpoints being observed over much of Oklahoma ahead of the dryline. Moisture return was significantly underforecasted. The upper-level winds over the past few days on the models have also been trending more westerly with time... and this means less linear forcing, and more deep-layer directional shear. I have a feeling people may be in for a surprise tomorrow. Hope all of you guys stay safe. You can definitely trust Ryan and his team to keep you all informed.