Monday, August 11, 2008

Tough Forecast For Tomorrow!

Sarah and I just spoke on the phone about the forecast for tomorrow. It's going to be a booger! If I worked in Little Rock, it would be easy... Lots of Rain. But, we are RIGHT on the line of a "soaking rainfall" and "dry as a bone".

I use to make fun of a buddy of mine from college for using the phrase "sharp demarcation" in his weathercasts. Ironically, I may use it tonight to discuss the rain! Hopefully Jude does not watch it online...hehe.

Let's take a look at two models, the NAM and the GFS. Both images are the 48 hour rainfall totals between this morning and Wed morning. First, here's the GFS....
If you notice, most of the heavy rain stays South of Region 8. In fact, parts of Region 8 would get no rain while Central Arkansas would get over 2" in parts. This is the model that most forecasts are leaning towards, BUT the NAM has been handling things pretty darn good in the past few weeks for us... So, let's take a look at the NAM...

The NAM has a flash flooding event going for parts of the state INCLUDING parts of Region 8. Even those of us in Jonesboro and Paragould would see an inch of rain, IF this model verifies.

Regardless, there will be a SHARP DEMARCATION between heavy rain and no rain. Hopefully, we can nail this forecast. IF we see rain forming in SW Missouri later tonight.... look for the NAM to verify. Let's hope we get some rain, but not too much! We should have a good handle on the forecast by 10:00 tonight.

Stay tuned!



Heidi said...

"Sharp demarcation" ??? Why go for that when you could just say booger of a forecast on-air?

You didn't even mention the WRF. If that verifies, it is very likely that you'll be receiving some startling photos of the condition of our road. I am literally about to head out for the "before" shot, since if the WRF verifies, I'm issuing a 90% chance that a section of the county road about a mile south of us is going to need extensive, costly repairs. =-O

Jason H said...

Almost looks like Sunday all over again, with us seeing not a drop in Randolph County.