Wednesday, April 01, 2009

Tomorrow's Severe Threat

The wind shear (blue area) during the lunch hours will be substantial enough to support tornadoes, but I'm not sure the instability will be in place... yet. It's not all meshing at the same time, which is good! However the instability does increase in the afternoon... see below.

By this time, the storms should mainly be a hail threat. I you have a garage, you may want to use it tomorrow! I think the hail risk will be between 3PM-7PM.
If you have interest in AL, MS, or even TN... your threat is a little higher for severe weather, including tornadoes.

1 comment:

Heidi said...

Nice update. I get annoyed when the 12z run shows like twice as much instability as the 00z... The NAM had been showing CAPE well above 2000 around 18-21z for the last several days, so it leaves me questioning whether the latest 2 runs are outliers or whether the models are getting a better grasp on the situation as the event gets closer. Something is going to have to change for the SPC to go high-risk, but regardless, it still looks like it could be pretty nasty across a good part of the mid-South. At least it doesn't look like it will happen during the night though. :-/