Thursday, December 17, 2009

White Christmas?

Take a deep breath and know that this is just a forecast and can change! Several pieces of data have consistantly shown snow falling on Christmas Eve. A deepening area of low pressure combined with cold air could provide us with some accumulating snow on Christmas Eve. IF I had to put a percentage of a "White Christmas" out there right now... I would say it sits at about 30%. It's so many days off that I can not go much higher than that.

The above graph shows 2 runs of of the GFS model and both show an accumulating snow on Christmas Eve..... The NAM does not go out that far.

We'll watch it closely and will tweak the forecast as needed!



Bryan said...

word. if gfs and its bufkit data are correct, snow after 0Z next Wednesday! i'm hopin that low digs a little further south. can't get our hopes up though.

Ryan said...

The current solution is perfect... Any farther south and we would be lose some of the QPF.

Anonymous said...

Care to share that chance of snow with those of us in Alabama??? lol

Jason H said...

All this has got my hopes way up......knowing my luck it will track North of Region 8 and brings us thunderstorms....seems like all those models always bring it futher South than what it goes this time of year. :-(

Karen H. said...

"I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas"!!!! It would be nice to have some Snow for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Wishing you and your Family a "MERRY CHRISTMAS" and a very "HAPPY NEW YEAR" Ryan. Missed you at the Lepanto Christmas Parade this year, but Josh Harvison was there and I got a picture of him. It's on the Loop. Have a great evening and weekend.