Friday, April 30, 2010

Stormy Weekend, Thursday Night Update

As I mentioned all night, we are going to see alot of rain. The above program is BUFKIT and it shows the 00Z NAM. Timestamp goes right to left, but that really does not matter... because it is all rain. This shows 3.5-4" of rain for Jonesboro. I think that is very reasonable based on the setup.

In addition to the flooding threat, we will also run the risk of strong storms. I'm not "as" sold on severe storms as I was yesterday, but we'll have to be watchful. The below graphic is for Friday evening and shows the EHI:
EHI is the Energy Helicity Index and is a number that is derived by the instability available (CAPE) and the spin or helicity present. (CAPE*Helicity/160000) This combination gives us an index to measure the tornado threat. As you can see, the greater threat is in Missouri, even though their instability is not as great... they have more "spin".

Until I see something different, I'm still thinking that flash flooding will be our greatest threat. Don't get me wrong, we'll still have watches and warnings, but when it is all over... flooding may be the bigger problem.

I'll send some tweets with updates tomorrow. I'm WAY sleepy... so excuse typos.



Karen H. said...

Good Morning Ryan,
I hope you are still sleeping and getting some much needed rest right now. I just wanted to say a "BIG THANK YOU" to you and Justin last night for the great job yall did in keeping us informed of the Severe Weather. They sounded the sirens here in Caraway around Midnight because one of the Police Officers said there was one forming above us. Me and my husband went out to the School's Tornado Safe Room they have. I just hope and pray it don't get real bad again later today and tonight. If it does, you can count on me and my Family tuning in to KAIT8 for complete and live weather coverage from the KAIT8 Storm Team. Keep up the great work.

Karen Horton
Caraway, AR

Anonymous said...

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