Sunday, June 27, 2010

Tropical Storm Alex and Region 8?

The image above shows the storm tracks from SEVERAL models regarding Tropical Depression Alex. It has weakened since it went over the Yucatan Peninsula, but will strengthen once it goes back over open water. That's when the questions begin! Will it continue into Mexico OR will it turn north and hit TX or maybe even LA??? If it does turn north, it will give us some rain and wind, but even worse... it will greatly affect the Oil Spill disaster that is ongoing in the Gulf of Mexico. If you remember, the worst part of a tropical cyclone is the Eastern side. When Hurricane Rita hit in the TX/LA areas... my father-in-law had coastal flooding in the Florida Panhandle. Tropical systems are far reaching! 
Here is a "zoomed in" look at the tracks in comparison to Arkansas. Notice that many models take it just west of us. IF this happened, we would have some rain and wind next weekend. DO NOT alter your your plans for the 4th of July just yet, but make sure you watch the weather this week!
Here's the GFS model for Saturday night. Notice the heavy rain across the state and notice how close the black lines are together. The lines being close together indicates a strong pressure gradient and implies that we will have some gusty winds across Region 8. We would also need to be on guard for small tornadoes.

Let me be clear... There are A LOT of questions and variables with this storm. My point is... we need to track Alex CLOSELY for several reasons!


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