Thursday, December 23, 2010

An Upper-Level Marriage?

In order for us to get a good snowfall, two pieces of energy need to merge together before passing us by and heading East. The data keeps flip-flopping back and forth on whether this will happen or not. It's called "phasing"... Let me explain. The map below is the latest upper-level forecast data for Christmas Eve from the NAM model. Click to enlarge. I have circled the two pieces of energy. The top one is the northern branch and the bottom one is the southern piece of energy. Notice, they are NOT together. They are NOT merging. This would yield little, if any, snowfall for Region 8. Maybe a dusting.
Now, let's look at the data that we had last night. It was more promising for a decent snowfall in Region 8. It had both pieces of energy merging together or "phasing". This image is for the same time period on Christmas Eve, but shows a totally different outcome:
If this were to occur, a good 1-3" of snow would occur across Region 8. It's amazing to see how much flip-flopping we are seeing in the data! This really may be a wait and see situation. We'll know more tonight and tomorrow morning as this system evolves.

Stay tuned,

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