Random thoughts about the weather and life. I may even vent every now and then. Since 2004!
Saturday, February 26, 2011
Storms Tomorrow Night
There's a big upper-low causing problems in LA for the Academy Awards and that upper-level system is heading east! Guess what that means? Yep, storms for us. Here's a look at Sunday evening. I'm showing isobars and simulated radar:
Notice that there is not much out there at this time according to this model. Remember, this is a model and not EXACTLY what will happen. I believe there is a chance for us to have a couple of renegade storms at this time somewhere in the Midsouth. The air is going to be pretty unstable. Take a look at the exact same time period and the same model and look at the CAPE (blues/yellows), which is a measure of the energy to fuel storms:
So, while we will not see a huge area of coverage, any storms that do form will need to be watched closely. As we go deeper into the night and into the weeee hours of the morning, the front will pass through providing more storms and some of them could be severe:
All threats of storms should be out of Region 8 no later than 9AM on MONDAY, if not well before.
I have heard some say that this will be similar to Thursday night and I don't agree for Region 8. We will not see 3-7" rainfall totals and the coverage will not be extensive as Thursday, but I actually think some of the storms could be stronger. One thing that will limit the strength of the storms will be that they are coming in without daytime heating. BUT, if they do get going... people will be asleep. Not good.