Friday, April 01, 2011

What About Monday?

For the past couple of days, we have been mentioning the chance of severe weather for Monday. The data has shifted a little and many questions still remain. I fully expect to see watches and warnings issued, but I'm just not 100% sold on an all-out outbreak. The main reason we may miss out on an outbreak (which is good thing) is the timing of the system and the position of the low when it forms.

What's working toward the outbreak is the amount of instability, even at daybreak on Monday. Typically, we see the air much more stable in the morning hours, but not on Monday according to the GFS below. It has the CAPE (instability) over 1200 for Jonesboro, which is plenty for tornadic storms within the sheared environment that we will have...
Notice that by lunch, we still have very unstable air across Region 8, but it's even worse in Northern Mississippi. Someone is going to see some nasty weather on Monday! We'll have to watch and see who gets the worst.
As I mentioned, there are still some questions and we are still 60 hours out. We'll know more tomorrow, so be sure to watch J-Lo at 6:00 and 10:00 on Saturday. I'll also try to blog more...

Stay tuned!

1 comment:

AEakes said...

Thanks Ryan!