Sunday, April 03, 2011

Timing of Monday's Front

I've been meaning to blog about tomorrow, but I've been enjoying my birthday. I just walked in from the fire pit where a friend and I were solving the problems of the world. Anywho, let's chat about tomorrow. This first graphic is an attempt to nail down the timing of the squall line. Click to enlarge after reading...
I'm pretty confident that the line of storms will pass through Region 8 by 1PM or at least through the Jonesboro/Paragould area. And the rest of Region 8 shortly after... The three windows are three different model's precip output. This timing is good because I am hoping we get the front through here before we really see the heating that could take place during the daytime hours. Points eastward may not be so fortunate and run a higher risk of severe weather. I expect us to have some brief heavy rain, some strong winds, but hopefully a low tornado threat. We'll watch it! What about later in the day? Next graphic....
You can click the above image to enlarge. These three images are for 7PM tomorrow. Severe storms from KY to TN, to MS and AL are likely during the afternoon and evening hours. Here in Region 8, the upper left graphic shows the north winds across the Region. That's the cold air advection behind the cold front. The lower left graphic shows the temperatures at 7PM. Notice that the cooler air will be with us as the storms rumble to our East. We should see temperatures around 50 after the front clears.

So, in summary.... I expect a squall line to enter Region around 7-9AM. It should move through Jonesboro/Paragould between 10AM-1PM. And it should cross the river intoTN between 1PM-3PM.

Let's see how those times play out tomorrow. Points eastward should really be prepared. TN, AL, MS, KY.

That is all. Bring on the week!


Angie said...

Thanks Ryan for letting us know about the possibility of severe weather tomorrow....Happy Birthday

Karen H. said...

"HAPPY BELATED BIRTHDAY" Ryan. Hope it was a good one for you. "THANK YOU" for keeping us all updated on the Severe Weather. I know I can always count on the KAIT8 Stormteam who is always on , watching and keeping us informed on any kind fo weather. Yall keep up the great work.

Karen Horton