Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Heavy Rain and Severe Weather on a BUSY Weekend

This weekend, Jonesboro is going to be PACKED. The NEA basketball tournament is underway, the Holiday Extravaganza tournament is happening, it's a busy travel weekend, and a lot of people will be shopping! The weather may impact a lot of people!

Here are the bullet points to focus on:

  • Heavy rain is the main threat. Rain chances will exist Fri-Sun, but most of the rain will fall on Saturday.
  • There is a chance of severe weather, with the greatest risk on Saturday.
  • 2-3" of rain is likely with this storm.
  • Wintry weather is highly unlikely anywhere in Region 8.
Here is the area highlighted to be watched by the Storm Prediction Center:

Let's dig in a little deeper though. If you take the 8 most severe weather events in this setup, where were the severe weather reports? This map shows the greatest risk of severe weather reports based on similar historical events:
As you see in the above image, there is a risk, but the greater risk may be south of us on Saturday. 

Heavy rain is also going to be an issue. Looking at historical events, 2-3" of rain is possible:

This also matches up well with what the WPC at NOAA is predicting for rainfall:

Stay tuned to the Region 8 Storm TEAM as we get closer to the weekend!



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